BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Euro says not so fast. Been overly optimistic for awhile. GFS clearly has the best handle on the 2018 regime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 It's not a full blown torch like he was describing and some models have shown for that period. Not even close. The next few days alone are going to torch hard. Thanksgiving could be closer to average, but the damage will have been done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 They only do those twice a week, Monday and Thursday. And today is Thursday, and of course Europe is way ahead of us time zone wise. So maybe you did see the very latest forecast.Yes, after Tim said that, I checked the EPS model output again and it showed it was produced on the 12th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 In the 7-10 day range, the FV3, Euro, and Canadian look pretty similar with a few storms coming in and not as much of a split flow, while the regular (soon to be old) GFS looks like more of a split flow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yes, after Tim said that, I checked the EPS model output again and it showed it was produced on the 12th. That run was warm through most of December. For example... here is Christmas Day: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Been overly optimistic for awhile. GFS clearly has the best handle on the 2018 regime. They've all been struggling lately past day 5. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 In the 7-10 day range, the FV3, Euro, and Canadian look pretty similar with a few storms coming in and not as much of a split flow, while the regular (soon to be old) GFS looks like more of a split flow. Here's what the GFS showed 7 days ago for today. And here's what actually happened. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 That run was warm through most of December. For example... here is Christmas Day: I was looking at 2m anomaly for Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 12Z ECMWF shows total precip of .20 for Portland through Thanksgiving. It might look troughy on the 500mb map... but the action is focused to our south. I'm guessing it shows a bit more through the end of the run? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 I was looking at 2m anomaly for Christmas. Not sure where you can find daily 2m anomalies on WB... but here is the two weeks around Christmas on the latest ECMWF weeklies: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 I'm guessing it shows a bit more through the end of the run? Yes... looks like another .40 to .60 after that point. So around .60 to .80 for Portland over the next 10 days which is pretty dry for mid to late November. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yes... looks like another .40 to .60 after that point. So around .60 to .80 for Portland over the next 10 days which is pretty dry for mid to late November. Well yeah, but at least it shows a progressive pattern turning wetter. We already knew the next 6 days would be dry. Significant difference after that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Here's what the GFS showed 7 days ago for today. gfs_z500a_namer_29.png And here's what actually happened. gfs_z500a_namer_1.png Garbage for us either way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 This month is not torching...The next few days could be above average, but then looking at the forecast for SLE early next week, a lot of 53/34 type days in the forecast. That is pretty close to normal, I think the average at SLE for today is 53/39. As of today SLE and PDX are running +1.0 on the month EUG is running +0.1. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Garbage for us either way Point is nothing is a "lock" with the models right now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Getting a little south wind here now... mostly sunny and 55. Feels like I need to be outside for awhile. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 This month is not torching...The next few days could be above average, but then looking at the forecast for SLE early next week, a lot of 53/34 type days in the forecast. That is pretty close to normal, I think the average at SLE for today is 53/39. As of today SLE and PDX are running +1.0 on the month EUG is running +0.1. Those numbers are all warm, and are only going to go up as the split flow pattern evolves and the daily averages drop. Most of western WA is +1 to +2 already as well. 1936 or 1952 or 1993 give you a better idea off what a bone dry November should look like, temperature wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Point is nothing is a "lock" with the models right now. A fat ridge over us has been a constant regardless of whatever little downstream hiccups may exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 A fat ridge over us has been a constant regardless of whatever little downstream hiccups may exist. Basically since April. And the north/south precip anomaly has been insane for almost a year now. This new climate state is awful. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Not sure where you can find daily 2m anomalies on WB... but here is the two weeks around Christmas on the latest ECMWF weeklies: I'm not using WB, I'm using weathermodels.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Coast to coast chill the past week, with insane anomalies in the middle of the country. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Probably end up a combination of 2014-15, 2004-05, and 1976-77. If we look at it from a precip standpoint, 1976-77 is looking like a pretty good match. It is the only year in the group Front Ranger mentioned with well below average precip in the Willamette valley in October AND November. If we look at JUST November precip these years were below average, I ranked the below average years below from driest to wettest. 197620041979201419771968 Only 2006, 1958, and 1953 had above average precip in November in those years. October 2004 had slightly above average precip, but overall the closest years if we look at precip patterns were 1976 followed by 2004. Not great news. Both those years also had significantly drier than average Decembers. Most of the December's on that list had above normal precip, but 1976, 2004, and 1958 were below average, with 2014 being exactly average in regards to December precip. So moving forward a move towards a much wetter pattern in December would be a good sign, if it stays dry we can probably write this one off. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Coast to coast chill the past week, with insane anomalies in the middle of the country. 7dTDeptUS.pngHard to torch hard with temps like that. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory.Because clown range modeling always verifies. FWIW, here’s D10. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory. The 12z EPS mean is ugly through the end of the run but FWIW the 12z control run shows a legitimate PV disruption with Arctic air reaching the PNW on day 15. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Hard to torch hard with temps like that. Pretty encouraging signs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Because clown range modeling always verifies. FWIW, here’s D10. There are all sorts of great signs right now...but just beyond 10 days so I can't blame people for being apprehensive. I'm liking late November / early December more and more though. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 “Garbage” is the word of the season so far! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 If we look at it from a precip standpoint, 1976-77 is looking like a pretty good match. It is the only year in the group Front Ranger mentioned with well below average precip in the Willamette valley in October AND November. If we look at JUST November precip these years were below average, I ranked the below average years below from driest to wettest. 197620041979201419771968 Only 2006, 1958, and 1953 had above average precip in November in those years. October 2004 had slightly above average precip, but overall the closest years if we look at precip patterns were 1976 followed by 2004. Not great news. Both those years also had significantly drier than average Decembers. Most of the December's on that list had above normal precip, but 1976, 2004, and 1958 were below average, with 2014 being exactly average in regards to December precip. So moving forward a move towards a much wetter pattern in December would be a good sign, if it stays dry we can probably write this one off. One encouraging thing that goes against years like 2014 and 1976 is the PDO. The North Pacific was in a strongly +PDO state those years, not at all the case this year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Because clown range modeling always verifies. FWIW, here’s D10. The warm ones do. Haha I guess I could see some form of an Aleutian low pattern developing. PV disruption as Kayla mentioned. Then maybe followed by some type of more favourable blocking development as the jet retracts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Fall 1936 was nuts. .69" at SLE for October and November combined! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Well as well all know things can change pretty quickly and dramatically. 2008 was a good example. (Yeah I know not a Niño) mountains were bare, I was washing my truck in shorts around Thanksgiving...and then a few weeks later I had over 30” of snow and a below zero low. I am thinking we see something fun around the first week of December. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Pretty encouraging signs.Hardly. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Fall 1936 was nuts. .69" at SLE for October and November combined!That was 82 years ago... global warming. FWIW... my area had only 19% of normal precip in Oct/Nov of 1936 as well. And January was really cold... bottomed out with 22/8 on 1/20/1937. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Was 1936-37 +ENSO? Looking at Salem, it is the 2nd snowiest winter season on record there. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Was 1936-37 +ENSO? Looking at Salem, it is the 2nd snowiest winter season on record there. Neutral. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Neutral. It was neutral positive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 So Salem's two snowiest winters on record came with +ENSO. 1968-69: +1936-37: +1949-50: -1992-93: =1919-20: ? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 Usually by this point we are having a party in here and Rob and Jim are posting all the time. I know it's only the 15th but it is just really starting to feel like we are going to have a very quiet winter, at least in Oregon. Nothing on the horizon in the realistic range and any major pattern shakeups always seem to be in the clown range only, not even getting inside 10 days. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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