November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

So Salem's two snowiest winters on record came with +ENSO. 

 

1968-69: +

1936-37: +

1949-50: -

1992-93: =

1919-20: ?

 

1919-20 was neutral positive.

 

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/index.html#Sec5

[MossMan]

Usually by this point we are having a party in here and Rob and Jim are posting all the time. I know it's only the 15th but it is just really starting to feel like we are going to have a very quiet winter, at least in Oregon. Nothing on the horizon in the realistic range and any major pattern shakeups always seem to be in the clown range only, not even getting inside 10 days.

By the second week of December Jim, Rob, Gordon, Anthony, Chris Durken, CraigOmahaWX, and that one psycho guy who went to jail...can’t remember his name will be posting!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dug into the numbers a little more on the years Front Ranger mentioned. Overall these were the month by month anomalies at SLE. 

 

October: +0.7

November: -0.1

December: +2.0

January: -1.8

February: +0.6

March: -0.1

 

Very strong signal in these years for a warm December. 2/3 of the years featured above average December temps. Also this data set includes 1968-69 and 2014-15, both extremes on the opposite ends of the spectrum. 

 

Those were the only two years in question which either had a positive or negative anomaly every month October-March (-1968/69, +2014/15). If you remove the top and bottom end outlier the signal doesn't change much, except you have a stronger signal for a cool March, and the December + anomaly goes up even more. 

 

Kind of interesting. I did not expect to see such a strong signal for a warm December and cool January. 

 

Overall 1976-77 remains a decent match, probably the best of this group. Though October 76' was cooler than this October, November was above average that year. December and January 76/77 did feature below average temps. 

 

I would say 1968-69, 2006-07, and 1979-80 seem to be years that stick out as being off the table as far as potential analog matches based on observed weather. 

[Front Ranger]

I dug into the numbers a little more on the years Front Ranger mentioned. Overall these were the month by month anomalies at SLE. 

 

October: +0.7

November: -0.1

December: +2.0

January: -1.8

February: +0.6

March: -0.1

 

Very strong signal in these years for a warm December. 2/3 of the years featured above average December temps. Also this data set includes 1968-69 and 2014-15, both extremes on the opposite ends of the spectrum. 

 

Those were the only two years in question which either had a positive or negative anomaly every month October-March (-1968/69, +2014/15). If you remove the top and bottom end outlier the signal doesn't change much, except you have a stronger signal for a cool March, and the December + anomaly goes up even more. 

 

Kind of interesting. I did not expect to see such a strong signal for a warm December and cool January. 

 

Overall 1976-77 remains a decent match, probably the best of this group. Though October 76' was cooler than this October, November was above average that year. December and January 76/77 did feature below average temps. 

 

I would say 1968-69, 2006-07, and 1979-80 seem to be years that stick out as being off the table as far as potential analog matches based on observed weather. 

 

The wild card is that we have much lower solar activity this year than most of those analogs. May or may not help, but definitely won't hurt.

[ShawniganLake]

18z ensemble has 3 members showing cold temps in the long range. Roughly 14%. It’s a start.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3-GFS is going pretty cold in the LR again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FV3 has a 977mb low slamming into Cape Blanco on Black Friday.  Can we have that as we have arctic air in place pls 

 

It also has the 528 line dropping to Lane County and a bit of the goodies in the north valley...in the clown range.

[Requiem]

I'm jealous of the E. Coast right now. Honestly, this season has been trash. A mess, an abysmal mess without a single significant weather event (kudos to you if you can name a single significant event this season). With not much to look forward to in the future. Maybe December, but I'm not counting on it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm jealous of the E. Coast right now. Honestly, this season has been trash. A mess, an abysmal mess without a single significant weather event (kudos to you if you can name a single significant event this season). With not much to look forward to in the future. Maybe December, but I'm not counting on it.

 

Maybe one day your life can bring you somewhere snowier. I sure hope I can move once I get healthier.

[Requiem]

Maybe one day your life can bring you somewhere snowier. I sure hope I can move once I get healthier.

 

Maybe some day. For now, I guess we bask in this limbo of weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe some day. For now, I guess we bask in this limbo of weather.

 

What's your personal streak at for no accumulating snowfall? I haven't had one since Mar in 16-17 as none of last year's events impacted the west central valley to where snow accumulated on the roads.

 

[Requiem]

What's your personal streak at for no accumulating snowfall? I haven't had one since Mar in 16-17 as none of last year's events impacted the west central valley to where snow accumulated on the roads.

 

Snow Totals 17-18.png

 

Definitely much less than yours, we had one in February (I missed the snow on Christmas Day). I want a big storm though, not a measly event. And by big, I mean at least 5 inches. The windstorm drought is MUCH longer, there hasn't been a significant storm since April 2017.

[jcmcgaffey]

What's your personal streak at for no accumulating snowfall? I haven't had one since Mar in 16-17 as none of last year's events impacted the west central valley to where snow accumulated on the roads.

 

Snow Totals 17-18.png

2012 here since I have had accumulating snow into the daytime or on the roads. I have had 1-2 times with snow at night but was melting by morning. It has been unprecedented for me in my lifetime since 1982.

[Requiem]

2012 here since I have had accumulating snow into the daytime or on the roads. I have had 1-2 times with snow at night but was melting by morning. It has been unprecedented for me in my lifetime since 1982.

 

Really!? Not even February 2017?

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting! Seems unlikely

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really!? Not even February 2017?

 

Or the Christmas snow? I know most everyone PDX north had a White Christmas last year.  Been since 2008 for SLE.  1985 is the last one for EUG. Going to assume that's their longest streak without one since keeping records. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hour 384 ftmfw.

 

Looks like the 1890s.

 

 

Wow!

 

Interesting! Seems unlikely

 

 

 

For some time now, the GFS (mainly the FV3) has been hinting at cold weather in the long range. There's going to be a huge opportunity IMHO for an Arctic Blast in the first half of December.

[jcmcgaffey]

Really!? Not even February 2017?

Nope. I know this cause 2012 was the last time the kids had school canceled and I could pull them down the street on a sled. Almost every year before that we had at least one event where that was possible.

[BLI snowman]

Or the Christmas snow? I know most everyone PDX north had a White Christmas last year.  Been since 2008 for SLE.  1985 is the last one for EUG. Going to assume that's their longest streak without one since keeping records. 

 

EUG had a white Christmas in 1990. Also in 1983, not 1985.

[Requiem]

But seriously, name the last real windstorm we've had in the PACNW. 

[BLI snowman]

But seriously, name the last real windstorm we've had in the PACNW. 

 

October 12, 1962. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG had a white Christmas in 1990. Also in 1983, not 1985.

 

There was less than an inch on the ground left over from the 3" that fell the week previous and it was very much in the process of melting on that day but I suppose it could be argued as such. Still think Springfield is 1985 as the snow was likely less here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

But seriously, name the last real windstorm we've had in the PACNW. 

 

I wasn't present for any of the significant ones since Dec 1995.

[MossMan]

But seriously, name the last real windstorm we've had in the PACNW.

Hanukkah Eve windstorm in 2006 wasn’t it...06/07 was such a good winter for exciting events!

[TT-SEA]

Great start!! Ugggghhhhh.

[BLI snowman]

There was less than an inch on the ground left over from the 3" that fell the week previous and it was very much in the process of melting on that day but I suppose it could be argued as such. Still think Springfield is 1985 as the snow was likely less here.

 

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=4pF9x-cDGsoC&dat=19901226&b_mode=2&hl=en

 

Nice snowman on the front page of the Eugene newspaper that day. EUG reported an inch on the ground, so it was an official white Christmas.

 

Also, nobody in western OR and WA had a white Christmas in 1985. We were under a massive inversion during Christmas 1985. You're probably thinking of 1983. 

[MossMan]

Great start!! Ugggghhhhh.

Haha no doubt!

[MossMan]

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=4pF9x-cDGsoC&dat=19901226&b_mode=2&hl=en

 

Nice snowman on the front page of the Eugene newspaper that day. EUG reported an inch on the ground, so it was an official white Christmas.

 

Also, nobody in western OR and WA had a white Christmas in 1985. We were under a massive inversion during Christmas 1985. You're probably thinking of 1983.

But we had a white Thanksgiving in 85!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hanukkah Eve windstorm in 2006 wasn’t it...06/07 was such a good winter for exciting events!

 

I remember just being in the warm sector for that one with little in the way of rain.  Just clouds.

[GHweatherChris]

Great start!! Ugggghhhhh.

Hey, you said you were done with the Hawks, nothing more out of you....

[TT-SEA]

Hey, you said you were done with the Hawks, nothing more out of you....

 

I said I was not planning my Sunday's around them.    We have nothing going on tonight.   

[GHweatherChris]

I said I was not planning my Sunday's around them. We have nothing going on tonight.

You made it clear you don't care what they do.

 

53 degrees here currently.

[TT-SEA]

You made it clear you don't care what they do.

 

53 degrees here currently.

Certainly don't care as much now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=4pF9x-cDGsoC&dat=19901226&b_mode=2&hl=en

 

Nice snowman on the front page of the Eugene newspaper that day. EUG reported an inch on the ground, so it was an official white Christmas.

 

Also, nobody in western OR and WA had a white Christmas in 1985. We were under a massive inversion during Christmas 1985. You're probably thinking of 1983. 

 

That shot is from Renton, Washington. There was little to no snow on the ground in Springfield on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and those are the only 2 days that count and snow must be covering the road. You are correct on 1983.  Bottom line, South valley is the most snow-cursed place in the PNW, esp when it comes to a White Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Does Russ know this is a real game? He looks completely off his game tonight.

[BLI snowman]

That shot is from Renton, Washington. There was little to no snow on the ground in Springfield on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and those are the only 2 days that count and snow must be covering the road. You are correct on 1983.  Bottom line, South valley is the most snow-cursed place in the PNW, esp when it comes to a White Christmas.

 

Nah, caption says University Park which is in Eugene 

 

The South Valley isn't really "snow cursed" so much as it's just too far south for most of our borderline airmasses to produce. The reality is that once you get south of the gorge outflow zone, your'e a lot more at the mercy of the upper level conditions.

[BLI snowman]

Does Russ know this is a real game? He looks completely off his game tonight.

 

Rodgers showing why he's on a different level.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hawks are gonna get blown out.

[MossMan]

Wow. Not a good start...in fact about as bad as you could get.

[TT-SEA]

Rodgers showing why he's on a different level.

 

Rodgers is 0-4 on the road this year.   That ends tonight.   Our defense sucks.