November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Hour 384 ftmfw.

 

Looks like the 1890s.

 

[MossMan]

My moss is alive and well! Currently 46 degrees.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

My moss is alive and well! Currently 46 degrees.

 

Had any rain lately?

[MossMan]

Had any rain lately?

Half inch over the last 24hrs!

[Blizzard777]

My moss is alive and well! Currently 46 degrees.

I need some of that for my waterfall !!! Beautiful stuff

[TT-SEA]

What a bizarre and horrible pattern progression.

Horrible?

 

Looks like lots of buckling around the globe. That is likely the influence of low solar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Calculating the trend on where our new 30 year normals will be for SLE. Not surprisingly replacing the 80s with the 2010s is not going to be bringing the averages down...I hadn't noticed, but SLE's average low in February during the 1981-2010 period was 0.1F colder than in January...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly in the past 100 years there has been essentially no change in annual mean temperature at SLE. The 1991-2010 mean was 53.0, the warmest 30 year period was 1921-1950 when it was 53.1. The coldest 1951-1980 when it was 52.0. We'll roll out the 80s soon, and right now 1991-2020 is on pace to be the warmest at 53.6.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another boring day in Springfield. Currently 44 and no precip at all. Doubt we have another freeze tonight keeping us at 7 so far.

 

Gonna be crazy if the Nov thread has fewer than 100 pages.

[MossMan]

Another boring day in Springfield. Currently 44 and no precip at all. Doubt we have another freeze tonight keeping us at 7 so far.

 

Gonna be crazy if the Nov thread has fewer than 100 pages.

Hopefully December will be much more exciting.

[Requiem]

Hmm, the 23rd to the 25th is starting to look intriguing...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hmm, the 23rd to the 25th is starting to look intriguing...

Not bad on the op GFS. Euro still not showing much of anything. It also looks pretty progressive without any prolonged cold over us and the 534 line barely skirting the south valley.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still zzzzz on the models.

[van city]

Still zzzzz on the models.

[ShawniganLake]

 

Still zzzzz on the models.

Yea I saw that. The new gfs sure likes to be goofy with the blocking in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow!

 

[Phil]

Yeah, something’s up with this year. It’s November 15th and it’s snowing sideways out here.

 

This isn’t supposed to happen.

[Phil]

So maybe this year breaks tradition and February ends up being the big winter month out there.

[Jesse]

Dense fog and 44 this morning.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Omegaraptor]

The South is getting November snow and we can’t even get a high below 50...

[BLI snowman]

So maybe this year breaks tradition and February ends up being the big winter month out there.

 

Or maybe the entire year is going to be steaming hot trash. Much more believable, given the current setup. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 and sunny when I left the house. 45 and foggy down in Salem. 

[Front Ranger]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I'm pretty sure overall model performance in the mid/long range has been abysmal lately.

[stuffradio]

The 00Z 46 day EPS shows roughly above normal temps for us through the rest of the month, and then starting Dec 1 it's mostly normal or below normal. The normal temps are more around WA and south, and below normal at the border in BC. Below normal around Christmas too!

[TT-SEA]

Downward trend has stopped for now...

 

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z 46 day EPS shows roughly above normal temps for us through the rest of the month, and then starting Dec 1 it's mostly normal or below normal. The normal temps are more around WA and south, and below normal at the border in BC. Below normal around Christmas too!

 

 

When was that released?    

 

The last update of the ECMWF weeklies on WB was from Monday and it looks pretty warm through December.     You might have access to a more recent version.  

[stuffradio]

When was that released?    

 

The last update of the ECMWF weeklies on WB was from Monday and it looks pretty warm through December.     You might have access to a more recent version.  

It's released daily.

[TT-SEA]

It's released daily.

Link?

[TT-SEA]

Nice day...

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It's released daily.

They only do those twice a week, Monday and Thursday.  And today is Thursday, and of course Europe is way ahead of us time zone wise.  So maybe you did see the very latest forecast.

[MossMan]

Nice day...

 

Attempting to get a little brighter here as well!

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a full Nino torch pattern for awhile. A rare warm/bone dry November combo is looking like a lock.

[Front Ranger]

Downward trend has stopped for now...

 

 

Barring another massive jump, the SON trimonthly will probably come in around +.5 to .6. Weak Nino along the lines of 2014, 2006, 2004, 1979, 1977, 1976, 1968, 1958, and 1953.

 

Those winters were all over the place, part of the reason I wouldn't count on typical Nino climo being the rule this year.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a full Nino torch pattern for awhile. A rare warm/bone dry November combo is looking like a lock.

 

Euro says not so fast.

[TT-SEA]

Barring another massive jump, the SON trimonthly will probably come in around +.5 to .6. Weak Nino along the lines of 2014, 2006, 2004, 1979, 1977, 1976, 1968, 1958, and 1953.

 

Those winters were all over the place, part of the reason I wouldn't count on typical Nino climo being the rule this year.

 

Probably end up a combination of 2014-15, 2004-05, and 1976-77.  

[MossMan]

Go 06/07!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Euro says not so fast.

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows total precip of .20 for Portland through Thanksgiving.    

 

It might look troughy on the 500mb map... but the action is focused to our south.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF shows total precip of .20 for Portland through Thanksgiving.    

 

It might look troughy on the 500mb map... but the action is focused to our south.

 

It's not a full blown torch like he was describing and some models have shown for that period. Not even close.

[TT-SEA]

It's not a full blown torch like he was describing and some models have shown for that period. Not even close.

 

Ahhhhhh. True.