November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Euro says not so fast.

 

Been overly optimistic for awhile. GFS clearly has the best handle on the 2018 regime.

[BLI snowman]

It's not a full blown torch like he was describing and some models have shown for that period. Not even close.

 

The next few days alone are going to torch hard. Thanksgiving could be closer to average, but the damage will have been done.

[stuffradio]

They only do those twice a week, Monday and Thursday.  And today is Thursday, and of course Europe is way ahead of us time zone wise.  So maybe you did see the very latest forecast.

Yes, after Tim said that, I checked the EPS model output again and it showed it was produced on the 12th.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

In the 7-10 day range, the FV3, Euro, and Canadian look pretty similar with a few storms coming in and not as much of a split flow, while the regular (soon to be old) GFS looks like more of a split flow.  

[TT-SEA]

Yes, after Tim said that, I checked the EPS model output again and it showed it was produced on the 12th.

 

 

That run was warm through most of December.

 

For example... here is Christmas Day:

 

[Front Ranger]

Been overly optimistic for awhile. GFS clearly has the best handle on the 2018 regime.

 

They've all been struggling lately past day 5.

[Front Ranger]

In the 7-10 day range, the FV3, Euro, and Canadian look pretty similar with a few storms coming in and not as much of a split flow, while the regular (soon to be old) GFS looks like more of a split flow.  

 

Here's what the GFS showed 7 days ago for today.

 

 

And here's what actually happened.

 

[stuffradio]

That run was warm through most of December.

 

For example... here is Christmas Day:

 

I was looking at 2m anomaly for Christmas.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF shows total precip of .20 for Portland through Thanksgiving.    

 

It might look troughy on the 500mb map... but the action is focused to our south.

 

I'm guessing it shows a bit more through the end of the run?

[TT-SEA]

I was looking at 2m anomaly for Christmas.

 

 

Not sure where you can find daily 2m anomalies on WB... but here is the two weeks around Christmas on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I'm guessing it shows a bit more through the end of the run?

 

 

Yes... looks like another .40 to .60 after that point.    So around .60 to .80 for Portland over the next 10 days which is pretty dry for mid to late November.  

[Front Ranger]

Yes... looks like another .40 to .60 after that point.    So around .60 to .80 for Portland over the next 10 days which is pretty dry for mid to late November.  

 

Well yeah, but at least it shows a progressive pattern turning wetter. We already knew the next 6 days would be dry. Significant difference after that.

[BLI snowman]

Here's what the GFS showed 7 days ago for today.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

 

And here's what actually happened.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_1.png

 

Garbage for us either way 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This month is not torching...The next few days could be above average, but then looking at the forecast for SLE early next week, a lot of 53/34 type days in the forecast. That is pretty close to normal, I think the average at SLE for today is 53/39.

 

As of today SLE and PDX are running +1.0 on the month EUG is running +0.1.

[Front Ranger]

Garbage for us either way 

 

Point is nothing is a "lock" with the models right now.

[TT-SEA]

Getting a little south wind here now... mostly sunny and 55.

 

Feels like I need to be outside for awhile.

[BLI snowman]

This month is not torching...The next few days could be above average, but then looking at the forecast for SLE early next week, a lot of 53/34 type days in the forecast. That is pretty close to normal, I think the average at SLE for today is 53/39.

 

As of today SLE and PDX are running +1.0 on the month EUG is running +0.1.

 

Those numbers are all warm, and are only going to go up as the split flow pattern evolves and the daily averages drop. Most of western WA is +1 to +2 already as well.

 

1936 or 1952 or 1993 give you a better idea off what a bone dry November should look like, temperature wise.

[BLI snowman]

Point is nothing is a "lock" with the models right now.

 

A fat ridge over us has been a constant regardless of whatever little downstream hiccups may exist.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A fat ridge over us has been a constant regardless of whatever little downstream hiccups may exist.

 

Basically since April. And the north/south precip anomaly has been insane for almost a year now. This new climate state is awful.

[stuffradio]

Not sure where you can find daily 2m anomalies on WB... but here is the two weeks around Christmas on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

 

 

I'm not using WB, I'm using weathermodels.com

[Front Ranger]

Coast to coast chill the past week, with insane anomalies in the middle of the country.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably end up a combination of 2014-15, 2004-05, and 1976-77.  

 

If we look at it from a precip standpoint, 1976-77 is looking like a pretty good match. 

 

It is the only year in the group Front Ranger mentioned with well below average precip in the Willamette valley in October AND November. 

 

If we look at JUST November precip these years were below average, I ranked the below average years below from driest to wettest.

 

1976

2004

1979

2014

1977

1968

 

Only 2006, 1958, and 1953 had above average precip in November in those years. 

 

October 2004 had slightly above average precip, but overall the closest years if we look at precip patterns were 1976 followed by 2004. Not great news. Both those years also had significantly drier than average Decembers.

 

Most of the December's on that list had above normal precip, but 1976, 2004, and 1958 were below average, with 2014 being exactly average in regards to December precip. So moving forward a move towards a much wetter pattern in December would be a good sign, if it stays dry we can probably write this one off.

[Deweydog]

Coast to coast chill the past week, with insane anomalies in the middle of the country.

 

7dTDeptUS.png

Hard to torch hard with temps like that.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory.

[Phil]

Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory.

Because clown range modeling always verifies.

 

FWIW, here’s D10.

 

[Kayla]

Looking at the EPS. We have finally punted the Baffin Island vortex, at least for the time being. And we still see ridging over the PNW. There goes that theory.

 

The 12z EPS mean is ugly through the end of the run but FWIW the 12z control run shows a legitimate PV disruption with Arctic air reaching the PNW on day 15.

[BLI snowman]

Hard to torch hard with temps like that.

 

Pretty encouraging signs. 

[Kayla]

Because clown range modeling always verifies.

 

FWIW, here’s D10.

 

There are all sorts of great signs right now...but just beyond 10 days so I can't blame people for being apprehensive.

 

I'm liking late November / early December more and more though.

[MossMan]

“Garbage” is the word of the season so far!

[Front Ranger]

If we look at it from a precip standpoint, 1976-77 is looking like a pretty good match. 

 

It is the only year in the group Front Ranger mentioned with well below average precip in the Willamette valley in October AND November. 

 

If we look at JUST November precip these years were below average, I ranked the below average years below from driest to wettest.

 

1976

2004

1979

2014

1977

1968

 

Only 2006, 1958, and 1953 had above average precip in November in those years. 

 

October 2004 had slightly above average precip, but overall the closest years if we look at precip patterns were 1976 followed by 2004. Not great news. Both those years also had significantly drier than average Decembers.

 

Most of the December's on that list had above normal precip, but 1976, 2004, and 1958 were below average, with 2014 being exactly average in regards to December precip. So moving forward a move towards a much wetter pattern in December would be a good sign, if it stays dry we can probably write this one off.

 

One encouraging thing that goes against years like 2014 and 1976 is the PDO. The North Pacific was in a strongly +PDO state those years, not at all the case this year.

[ShawniganLake]

Because clown range modeling always verifies.

 

FWIW, here’s D10.

 

The warm ones do. Haha

 

I guess I could see some form of an Aleutian low pattern developing. PV disruption as Kayla mentioned. Then maybe followed by some type of more favourable blocking development as the jet retracts.

[Front Ranger]

Fall 1936 was nuts. .69" at SLE for October and November combined!

[MossMan]

Well as well all know things can change pretty quickly and dramatically. 2008 was a good example. (Yeah I know not a Niño) mountains were bare, I was washing my truck in shorts around Thanksgiving...and then a few weeks later I had over 30” of snow and a below zero low. I am thinking we see something fun around the first week of December.

[Deweydog]

Pretty encouraging signs.

Hardly.

[TT-SEA]

Fall 1936 was nuts. .69" at SLE for October and November combined!

That was 82 years ago... global warming.

 

FWIW... my area had only 19% of normal precip in Oct/Nov of 1936 as well.     And January was really cold... bottomed out with 22/8 on 1/20/1937.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was 1936-37 +ENSO? Looking at Salem, it is the 2nd snowiest winter season on record there. 

[TT-SEA]

Was 1936-37 +ENSO? Looking at Salem, it is the 2nd snowiest winter season on record there. 

 

Neutral.

[BLI snowman]

Neutral.

 

It was neutral positive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So Salem's two snowiest winters on record came with +ENSO. 

 

1968-69: +

1936-37: +

1949-50: -

1992-93: =

1919-20: ?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Usually by this point we are having a party in here and Rob and Jim are posting all the time. I know it's only the 15th but it is just really starting to feel like we are going to have a very quiet winter, at least in Oregon. Nothing on the horizon in the realistic range and any major pattern shakeups always seem to be in the clown range only, not even getting inside 10 days.