November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

wasn’t 2008 pretty dull?

Yes, but at least it rained a bunch early in the month.

[Deweydog]

Some of the pictures out of Paradise are truly apocalyptic. That burned HOT.

[El_Nina]

Mark Nelsen also called for a significant warm-up on the 21st of Dec 08 and that was way off. If this is what it's in reference to.

 

Wasn't Rod Hill still with KATU back then? I remember watching Salesky's forecast on KGW for the 08 event, which apparently was not much of any event at all down here. People generally feel like 13-14 is more notable for the south valley so I hear.

I do believe he was with Katu in 2008.

How much did Monmouth get from the event?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has to be the dullest November here since 1976.

 

At face value with how weak these systems are it is possible some places in the Willamette Valley don't even hit an inch this month... Always a chance we get a couple big systems at the end of the month that drop 3-4" of rain in a few days, but that seems extremely unlikely.

[El_Nina]

Already down to 29

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhh....Phil?

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already down to 29

 

Low level cold is impressive this evening, but very shallow. It is the warmest night in about a week up here. 39 currently. 

[Karl Bonner]

So...a pool of cold air (Fake Cold) kept The Dalles below 40 degrees for 2 days in a row, in the 2nd week of November.  Pretty dang early in the season.

 

But that raises the inevitable question:  What's the latest in the season we've pulled off the same feat?  I don't think I ever remember anything similar to this in the 2nd half of February, at least not without REAL cold air in the upper pattern.

 

About the closest thing I could find in the records was a dry day with a low of 36 and high of 39, on 02/21/2009.  I was living in Eugene at the time.  That may well be one of the latest Fake Cold days ever to hit the Gorge and Columbia Basin.

[El_Nina]

Low level cold is impressive this evening, but very shallow. It is the warmest night in about a week up here. 39 currently.

Freezing rain!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So...a pool of cold air (Fake Cold) kept The Dalles below 40 degrees for 2 days in a row, in the 2nd week of November.  Pretty dang early in the season.

 

But that raises the inevitable question:  What's the latest in the season we've pulled off the same feat?  I don't think I ever remember anything similar to this in the 2nd half of February, at least not without REAL cold air in the upper pattern.

 

About the closest thing I could find in the records was a dry day with a low of 36 and high of 39, on 02/21/2009.  I was living in Eugene at the time.  That may well be one of the latest Fake Cold days ever to hit the Gorge and Columbia Basin.

 

2/25/1993. No recorded precip at TDS and 28/13. Late February and the first couple days of March were something else in 1993...

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024219&year=1993&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024219&year=1993&month=3&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[Canadian guy]

Heaven on Earth!

 

 

Currently in Maui right now and can confirm the weather is beautiful.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So Silver Falls September stats came out and they had their first freeze on September 23rd, which is about right at the historical average and by far the earliest in the last decade. I think we hit 34 here that morning, so we had to wait until last week for our first freeze. Good to see they recorded one so early though. 

[Front Ranger]

Currently in Maui right now and can confirm the weather is beautiful.

But have you visited Baffin Island?

[Phil]

But have you visited Baffin Island?

Baffin Island > Maui. No debate. End of discussion.

[Phil]

Uhhhh....Phil?

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I do believe he was with Katu in 2008.

How much did Monmouth get from the event?

I actually lived in Willamina in the west valley and we had all the action from that one. Foot of snow, inch of freezing rain, another foot of snow in top of that. Pretty sure Monmouth was similar in that 18 inch range being in the cold air dam. Snow line was between there and Corvallis. The south valley only had rain and didn't notice much of anything special with the whole event.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Guest Dome Buster]

Newport is always a great landfall for pdx.

[Timmy]

Just need to get that 945 low to the north of Astoria and that hight a bit closer to the coast.

I will get to work on it!

[TT-SEA]

50 and still dry here... was expecting it to be wet this morning.    I see dewpoints around the area are still in the 30s so it looks like the existing dry air mass won the battle last night.   SEA has SW14 now so the dewpoints should be rising today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50 and still dry here... was expecting it to be wet this morning.    I see dewpoints around the area are still in the 30s so it looks like the existing dry air mass won the battle last night.   SEA has SW14 now so the dewpoints should be rising today.

 

Believe it or not it is actually raining here and not up there. 

[Geos]

Little breezy this morning. No real rain yet.

[TT-SEA]

Believe it or not it is actually raining here and not up there. 

 

 

I don't think that is too unusual once we get into the east wind season and the storm track shifts farther south.

 

Our annual average is about the same... so there must be some point in the year when it rains more down there since it seems to rain way more often up here from April - October.  

[Geos]

Now it is raining pretty good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think that is too unusual once we get into the east wind season and the storm track shifts farther south.

 

Our annual average is about the same... so there must be some point in the year when it rains more down there since it seems to rain way more often up here from April - October.  

 

November-January each average around 11" with December the wettest at 11.5". February and March come in with about 9" on average. So we get about 2/3 of our precip in those 5 months. October-April accounts for about 85% of our precip. 

[Omegaraptor]

Believe it or not it is actually raining here and not up there.

 

You’re at the western edge of the Cascades, so I assume orographic effect would create more rainfall?

[ShawniganLake]

Poured all night here. Probably over an inch.

 

Edit. 1.14” in the gauge

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You’re at the western edge of the Cascades, so I assume orographic effect would create more rainfall?

 

Yes, it was more of a commentary on the fact that the last 6+ months it has been very dry down here while Tim has received copious amounts of rain. 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, it was more of a commentary on the fact that the last 6+ months it has been very dry down here while Tim has received copious amounts of rain.

 

Over 20 inches here from May through October this year.

 

And another 5 inches so far this month.

[Jesse]

Over 20 inches here from May through October this year.

 

And another 5 inches so far this month.

Where do you base your measurements? Always comes off like you are just eyeballing it.

[Phil]

Over 20 inches here from May through October this year.

 

And another 5 inches so far this month.

That’s all?? Given your commentary over the last several months, I figured you were setting rainfall records left and right.

[ShawniganLake]

This gfs run is looking much different next week. Energy is cutting off much farther west in the pacific.

[Front Ranger]

Yes, it was more of a commentary on the fact that the last 6+ months it has been very dry down here while Tim has received copious amounts of rain. 

 

Copious, maybe, but certainly not more than normal. 

 

[High Desert Mat!]

We need some east wind density.

[Front Ranger]

6z ensembles definitely hint at significant high lat blocking in the long range.

 

[TT-SEA]

Where do you base your measurements? Always comes off like you are just eyeballing it.

 

 

I use the Snoqualmie Valley station as a guide... over 16 inches down there in the May-October period.     Easily over 20 inches up here in that period.    I also note when there is significantly more rain than the valley using the meso-net stations up here.   20 inches is understating the reality.   

 

[Phil]

6z ensembles definitely hint at significant high lat blocking in the long range.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png

Ha. One of the more classic -NAM patterns you’ll see.

 

Some pretty bizarre stuff is also happening in the tropics right now. The Pacific Hadley Cell has narrowed substantially, and now resembles a pre-1998 type structure. The EPAC ITCZ hasn’t been centered this far south since 1998.

 

Not sure what to make of it yet. The QBO/MQI is definitely playing a role. But it’s definitely not something we’ve seen very often in the 21st century.

[TT-SEA]

That’s all?? Given your commentary over the last several months, I figured you were setting rainfall records left and right.

 

All of my commentary has been about how much closer to normal it has been around here compared to the crippling drought in Oregon.  

 

Not that it has been record-setting wet... not even close.  

 

But it has been a little wetter than normal up here in 2018 which is the polar opposite of Oregon.

 

[Jesse]

This gfs run is looking much different next week. Energy is cutting off much farther west in the pacific.

Backdoor action?

[Jesse]

All of my commentary has been about how much closer to normal it has been around here compared to the crippling drought in Oregon.

 

Not that it has been record-setting wet... not even close.

 

But it has been a little wetter than normal up here in 2018 which is the polar opposite of Oregon.

 

 

Weren’t we just talking about May to October? Why switch it to January mid discussion.