November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Crazy to see even SE Alaska under moderate drought. That kind of says it all right there.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day!

[jcmcgaffey]

Not a big deal... except in Oregon, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.

 

I wonder how long California has been in drought. It seems like it has been a decade. I don’t remember one year yet when California was not in a drought at some point in the year.

[Deweydog]

It's November 13th.

[Blizzard777]

Definitely under the California smoke down here in Portland

Orange sunshine

[jcmcgaffey]

Most of CA is not in a drought... yellow is not drought.

 

The majority of the country is not in a drought.

I meant not having any color on that map. It has seriously been forever. Every other state has gone in and out except California. I’m just curious why.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely under the California smoke down here in Portland

Orange sunshine

Not likely coming from CA.

[Jesse]

Most of CA is not in a drought... yellow is not drought. It just means it's been drier than normal recently.

 

The majority of the country is not in a drought.

Nobody has been talking about the whole country. Pretty clear most of the West is either much drier than normal or in official drought status, though.

[TT-SEA]

Nobody has been talking about the whole country. Pretty clear most of the West is either much drier than normal or in official drought status, though.

But most of the far West is not as bad as Oregon.

[Jesse]

It's November 13th.

I think the issue is people know these +ENSO years tend to have a lot of action packed into November/December before quieting down sometime in January. But this year is already acting like a ridgy/splitty El Niño, so we are kind of burning through what should be our prime time for significant precip/mountain snow.

 

Who knows though, maybe the recent move toward more neutral could mean more variability than expected, going forward.

[Jesse]

But most of the far West is not as bad as Oregon.

SW Oregon is a hot spot, but it’s not like anywhere has truly been wet or even really average aside from isolated pockets. I can even see the yellow and brown creeping up to your area on that map. That says dry, even if not official drought status yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the issue is people know these +ENSO years tend to have a lot of action packed into November/December before quieting down sometime in January. But this year is already acting like a ridgy/splitty El Niño, so we are kind of burning through what should be our prime time for significant precip/mountain snow.

 

Who knows though, maybe the recent move toward more neutral could mean more variability than expected, going forward.

 

Yeah people also forget most years feature split flow at some point. Last December was pretty ridgy/splitty.. It also ended up pretty solidly below average a lot of places with very little upper level cold air. So once we get past Thanksgiving and inversion season really kicks in these patterns would give us some pretty decent cold anomalies. 

[TT-SEA]

SW Oregon is a hot spot, but it’s not like anywhere has truly been wet or even really average aside from isolated pockets. I can even see the yellow and brown creeping up to your area on that map. That says dry, even if not official drought status yet.

Its actually been improving over the far West.. except in Oregon.

[Jesse]

Its actually been improving over the far West.. except in Oregon.

I’m sure the first 2/3 of the wettest month of the year being mostly dry will do wonders going forward.

[TT-SEA]

I’m sure the first 2/3 of the wettest month of the year being mostly dry will do wonders going forward.

Does not matter up here until next spring. Lets see where we stand next April or May.

[Jesse]

Does not matter up here until next spring. Lets see where we stand next April or May.

+ENSO springs are historically cool and wet so I’m liking our odds.

[TT-SEA]

+ENSO springs are historically cool and wet so I’m liking our odds.

Time will tell!

[Jesse]

Time will tell!

That’s pretty cut and dry +ENSO climo, especially if this is to be a multi-year event.

[BLI snowman]

I think the issue is people know these +ENSO years tend to have a lot of action packed into November/December before quieting down sometime in January. But this year is already acting like a ridgy/splitty El Niño, so we are kind of burning through what should be our prime time for significant precip/mountain snow.

 

Who knows though, maybe the recent move toward more neutral could mean more variability than expected, going forward.

 

Yeah, January 16 onwards is basically a throwaway in any El Nino year no matter how weak, whereas the opposite is true with cold ENSO (like last winter). And the early returns aren't encouraging.

 

It's also pretty atypical for us to score arctic air before we've had any kind of prolonged jet activity first, and there's still none of that in sight. If the action ever does pick up in the next few weeks I suspect it'll be of the mild/wet variety.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 30 last night. Not the mid-20s like the last few but still 6 freezes now. Only 19 more to go so we can eclipse 91-92 for fewest freezes in a cold season since I moved to Oregon in Dec 89.

[TT-SEA]

That’s pretty cut and dry +ENSO climo, especially if this is to be a multi-year event.

I sure hope next spring is warm and dry here. Sounds lovely.

[Deweydog]

I think the issue is people know these +ENSO years tend to have a lot of action packed into November/December before quieting down sometime in January. But this year is already acting like a ridgy/splitty El Niño, so we are kind of burning through what should be our prime time for significant precip/mountain snow.

 

Who knows though, maybe the recent move toward more neutral could mean more variability than expected, going forward.

The period up to and just beyond 11-13 is not typically prime time for mountain snow. Thanksgiving openings are the exception, not the rule.

 

And I don't think there has actually been a nino in place yet? Haven't actually dipped my toes in down there but it seems we've just been bee-bopping around warm neutral.

[Deweydog]

I sure hope next spring is warm and dry here. Sounds lovely.

Jesse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jesse]

I sure hope next spring is warm and dry here. Sounds lovely.

I envision some even lovelier drought maps.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I sure hope next spring is warm and dry here. Sounds lovely.

 

You should come take a visit to the burned Willamette Valley next September.

[BLI snowman]

The period up to and just beyond 11-13 is not typically prime time for mountain snow. Thanksgiving openings are the exception, not the rule.

 

And I don't think there has actually been a nino in place yet? Haven't actually dipped my toes in down there but it seems we've just been bee-bopping around warm neutral.

 

Region 3.4 has been in Nino territory for about 6 weeks now. Lots of fluctuations and it may have even peaked already, but an official weak Nino is looking like a near certainty. 

[jakeinthevalley]

On this date in 1981, the Willamette Valley had one of the better windstorms since 1962. Widespread gusts of 70+mph.

 

I remember watching our neighbor's 80 foot fir tree finally succumb to the gusts after midnight. You know what they say about a tree falling in the woods? I can confirm that it does make a hell of a noise! Being about 30 yards away, it shook our house when it fell.

[Jesse]

The period up to and just beyond 11-13 is not typically prime time for mountain snow. Thanksgiving openings are the exception, not the rule.

 

And I don't think there has actually been a nino in place yet? Haven't actually dipped my toes in down there but it seems we've just been bee-bopping around warm neutral.

Sure, but if you can’t see how it’s a little demoralizing to go through the first half of November with basically zero storm activity for most of the region, when we are already looking at what will likely be a truncated winter, I’m not sure what to tell you.

 

And yeah, for official status that spike into Niño territory would have had to maintain itself for longer. Warm neutral seems to be the way to go for now, which is one of the most compelling reasons for cautious optimism at this point.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a little wetter for next week than the 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On this date in 1981, the Willamette Valley had one of the better windstorms since 1962. Widespread gusts of 70+mph.

 

I remember watching our neighbor's 80 foot fir tree finally succumb to the gusts after midnight. You know what they say about a tree falling in the woods? I can confirm that it does make a hell of a noise! Being about 30 yards away, it shook our house when it fell.

 

It seems we are probably due for a regional windstorm along these lines. 

[BLI snowman]

Sure, but if you can’t see how it’s a little demoralizing to go through the first half of November with basically zero storm activity for most of the region, when we are already looking at what will likely be a truncated winter, I’m not sure what to tell you.

 

And yeah, for official status that spike into Niño territory would have had to maintain itself for longer. Warm neutral seems to be the way to go for now, which is one of the most compelling reasons for cautious optimism at this point.

 

Not true, we need five consecutive trimonthly averages of +0.5c or higher in region 3.4 for official status. SON is assured that right now and OND will very likely wind up there as well, so we're effectively 2/5 of the way there.

 

Looks like a late blooming, weak El Nino to me. 2006-07 is probably the best ENSO match, and of course that November couldn't be more opposite than this one here.

[MossMan]

Breezzzzy!!

[ShawniganLake]

Got down to 30 last night. Not the mid-20s like the last few but still 6 freezes now. Only 19 more to go so we can eclipse 91-92 for fewest freezes in a cold season since I moved to Oregon in Dec 89.

Looks like the BSF has shifted north this year. Lots of places still waiting for their first freeze

 

Victoria, Comox, Malahat, Shawnigan Lake, Agassiz are all still without a freeze.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the BSF has shifted north this year. Lots of places still waiting for their first freeze

 

Oh don't worry, you'll get the goodies while we get stuck in it again at some point.

[Deweydog]

Sure, but if you can’t see how it’s a little demoralizing to go through the first half of November with basically zero storm activity for most of the region, when we are already looking at what will likely be a truncated winter, I’m not sure what to tell you.

 

And yeah, for official status that spike into Niño territory would have had to maintain itself for longer. Warm neutral seems to be the way to go for now, which is one of the most compelling reasons for cautious optimism at this point.

This winter smells like a write off anyway, front loaded at best. Not sure what you were expecting. If it's a month from now and we're still in a meandering, boring pattern I'd be a little more concerned but things have a tendency to even out, climate change anxiety notwithstanding.

[TT-SEA]

This winter smells like a write off anyway, front loaded at best. Not sure what you were expecting. If it's a month from now and we're still in a meandering, boring pattern I'd be a little more concerned but things have a tendency to even out, climate change anxiety notwithstanding.

Still could easily have a memorable event in an otherwise boring winter. Seems more likely than usual this year with low solar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Talk about a shallow inversion in Central Oregon. Currently 50 in Redmond and 27 down the road in Madras. 

[Jesse]

This winter smells like a write off anyway, front loaded at best. Not sure what you were expecting. If it's a month from now and we're still in a meandering, boring pattern I'd be a little more concerned but things have a tendency to even out, climate change anxiety notwithstanding.

Was expecting some rainfall and regional storminess in November. I’d say that’s a pretty low bar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford was 70/25 yesterday. Quite the spread for mid-November.

[Jesse]

Talk about a shallow inversion in Central Oregon. Currently 50 in Redmond and 27 down the road in Madras.

Seems pretty normal. Redmond is about 600’ higher than Madras, and they are roughly 30 miles apart. The inversion being between Redmond and Madras tells us it’s about 2,500 ft deep over there.