November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

1965-66 was a pretty unusual El Nino. Lots of cold onshore flow. Acted more like a modern Nina.

Both 1965/66 and 1968/69 had eerily similar patterns.

 

The latter case was more amplified, however.

 

[Phil]

D1-5 & D6-10. Straight up -AMO cell here.

 

[BLI snowman]

Both 1965/66 and 1968/69 had eerily similar patterns.

 

The latter case was more amplified, however.

 

 

 

What's interesting about January 1969 was how active the subtropical jet was, in classic Nino fashion.

 

San Luis Obispo, CA had a ridiculous 25" of rain that month. There was wild variance with the northern jet being strongly suppressed and an active southern stream, as well. As you probaby know, the combo led to some pretty freakish snow totals late in the month here.

[Phil]

What's interesting about January 1969 was how active the subtropical jet was, in classic Nino fashion.

 

San Luis Obispo, CA had a ridiculous 25" of rain that month. There was wild variance with the northern jet being strongly suppressed and an active southern stream, as well. As you probaby know, the combo led to some pretty freakish snow totals late in the month here.

That’s fascinating stuff.

 

That pattern also seemed to repeat itself a lot. It was present throughout the 1950s and 1960s, with only brief hiccups (like 1960/61, 1957/58, etc).

 

The 11 winters from 1958/59 to 1968/69:

 

[Phil]

1964/65 looks like a particularly potent example of it.

 

More northern jet, but a similar background state.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Salem had 7.5" of snow.

 

Weird how SLE had so much more

[MikeInEverett]

06z hour 384 is at it again, nice block setting up..

 

Oh wait it's 16 days out how dare I bring up anything that's in clown range 

[Guest Dome Buster]

06z hour 384 is at it again, nice block setting up..

 

Oh wait it's 16 days out how dare I bring up anything that's in clown range

You can bring it up but we all know it means nothing.

[wx_statman]

https://www.iceagenow.info/lack-of-sunspots-to-bring-record-cold-warns-nasa-scientist/

 

NASA says serious cooling could happen in a matter of months.

 

That "ice age now" article is a junk interpretation of a different article (https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/), where the NASA scientist talks about the thermosphere. Cooling at 100+ kilometers altitude. Not at the Earth's surface. 

[MossMan]

38 and mostly clear currently. Going to get the Christmas lights up today, that should get the clown range GFS pumping!

[ShawniganLake]

38 and mostly clear currently. Going to get the Christmas lights up today, that should get the clown range GFS pumping!

too early!

[Blizzard777]

too early!

I have the same thought every year. Get the lights up now during these last few nice days in November. I’m always out there in December between storms grumbling why didn’t i put these up earlier. I wouldn’t light up yet but certainly get them ready!

[Blizzard777]

Made it down to 32* this morning (Fed Way)

Nest cam shows some clouds earlier this morning but have cleared off now.

East winds in Tigard have gone calm

[MossMan]

I have the same thought every year. Get the lights up now during these last few nice days in November. I’m always out there in December between storms grumbling why didn’t i put these up earlier. I wouldn’t light up yet but certainly get them ready!

Yeah I figured with a nice day and being off work still with our new born it was my opportunity. I go back to work next week and with family coming in for Thanksgiving (I’m hosting this year) things are about to get even busier! I should be nice and exhausted by December!

[ShawniganLake]

I have the same thought every year. Get the lights up now during these last few nice days in November. I’m always out there in December between storms grumbling why didn’t i put these up earlier. I wouldn’t light up yet but certainly get them ready!

Yea. I honestly thought about it yesterday. Decided to do one last yard cleanup before winter. I’ll hold off on the lights another couple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny and breezy here this morning... only made it down to 46 with the east wind going all night.  

[ShawniganLake]

Looks wet up here tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z a bit wetter for the middle of next week.

[TT-SEA]

Cottonwoods still hanging on to their leaves here...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mostly sunny and breezy here this morning... only made it down to 46 with the east wind going all night.  

 

Inversion is fairly shallow down here. I only made it down to 35 while Salem made it to 30.

[Front Ranger]

OLM has had seven straight lows in the 20s. 26 yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

OLM has had seven straight lows in the 20s. 26 yesterday.

Always gets cold there in a dry pattern with offshore flow this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OLM has had seven straight lows in the 20s. 26 yesterday.

 

Station of the God's indeed!

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS is a big improvement for next week, at least for split flow loathers. 

[Blizzard777]

Mostly sunny and breezy here this morning... only made it down to 46 with the east wind going all night.

 

What is the adverage east wind speed there during these events?

[Front Ranger]

Always gets cold there in a dry pattern with offshore flow this time of year.

 

Yep. But with an average low of 37-38 over the period, seven straight lows in the 20s is still fairly unusual.

[TT-SEA]

What is the adverage east wind speed there during these events?

 

 

Varies greatly.   

 

Usually between 15-30 mph for a typical east wind event here.    The valley gets the stronger winds.   The peak gust so far today in North Bend has been 29 mph.   Its not that strong up here though... maybe 15 mph gusts here.

[TT-SEA]

Yep. But with an average low of 37-38 over the period, seven straight lows in the 20s is still fairly unusual.

 

 

Its usually raining in November.   

 

Dry spells will almost always result in colder than average lows there.

[MossMan]

Yea. I honestly thought about it yesterday. Decided to do one last yard cleanup before winter. I’ll hold off on the lights another couple weeks.

I’m doing that today as well!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep. But with an average low of 37-38 over the period, seven straight lows in the 20s is still fairly unusual.

 

Yeah not quite so common early/mid-November.

[Front Ranger]

Its usually raining in November.   

 

Dry spells will almost always result in colder than average lows there.

 

So you're admitting it's been dry......

[TT-SEA]

So you're admitting it's been dry......

It definitely has been dry for the last week. Makes sense up here considering how wet it was for the first week of the month outside of the rain shadow areas.

[Jesse]

This regional drought has been totally normal guys. Annoyingly wet if anything!

[MossMan]

Going on a 3 day dry streak here!!!! The leaves are turning brown and falling off the trees at an alarming rate!

[TT-SEA]

This regional drought has been totally normal guys. Annoyingly wet if anything!

 

 

That is an Oregon and SW WA problem.   Even CA is faring better than OR despite the recent fires.

 

The real drought issues right now are in Oregon, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.   

 

Most of the country has no issues at all.      You should move north or south or east.   

[BLI snowman]

This regional drought has been totally normal guys. Annoyingly wet if anything!

 

SEA just had its wettest April since 2013. There is no regional drought, dood. 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

12z GFS is definitely a small improvement.

[TT-SEA]

FE7FC007-A6BD-4D43-A201-7C587DDFB4C0.png

 

 

Not a big deal... except in Oregon, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.    

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

OLM has had seven straight lows in the 20s. 26 yesterday.

Crazy. Shawnigan Lake is officially still waiting for our first freeze. Though MBY has had 2.