November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If only we could get in on it for once. Haven't had a true Arctic blast since what, 16-17? Or were those just a bunch of backdoor airmasses? Otherwise you have to go back to 13-14.

 

The last true regional arctic airmass we had was December 2013. 

[Jesse]

Seems the downsloping east wind is transitioning to more of a gap wind this morning. Which means today should be a little chillier in east county.

[wx_statman]

Very impressive storm that I knew nothing about.

 

It also triggered a historic early-season cold wave in its wake. Part of a curious batch of major cold waves that clog the books around the Nov. 10th-15th period in the upper plains (1911, 1916, 1940, 1955, 1959, 1986, 2014, etc). 

[Kayla]

I will say these clippers have been over performing here this season and seem to trend further and further west with each run. I like your guys chances as we head into December with plenty of cold air already on this side of the globe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Tulsa officially measured 1.3" of snow this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

I take it no one is getting any wind right now

 

Its 52 with a dewpoint of 25 and an east wind gusting to 22 mph in North Bend right now.

[Front Ranger]

The last true regional arctic airmass we had was December 2013. 

 

Feb 2014?

[Front Ranger]

2015 was a great team suffering from Super Bowl hangover after the loss to the Patriots.

 

If they lose on Thursday... then the only path to the playoffs is to win 6 straight games after losing 3 in a row. And that would require beating the Panthers, Vikings, and the Chiefs. And beat the Cardinals again and we barely beat them earlier this year. Tall order no matter how you slice it. It's a really long shot to finish any better than 9-7. That is just the reality of a very tough schedule.

 

And they used to be able to win the close games. They have been in 6 games that came down to one score this year... and have lost 5 of them.

 

I agree that they need to win on Thursday. 

 

Looks like another dry game at the Clink!

[TT-SEA]

I agree that they need to win on Thursday. 

 

Looks like another dry game at the Clink!

 

 

Starting to look like a close call now... 

 

[Blizzard777]

If only we could get in on it for once. Haven't had a true Arctic blast since what, 16-17? Or were those just a bunch of backdoor airmasses? Otherwise you have to go back to 13-14.

I am so in the mood for a True Arctic front to go through the PNW! Their rare occurrences make them that more special. It’s sad to think over my lifetime I can only remember a few. 1990 sticks out as I lived at Oswego Point apartments (Lake Oswego) with a view to the NW. The news was reporting how quickly the temperature dropped in Vancouver and Seattle was already down in the low 20s. I was so excited like a kid with unlimited funds in a candy store! When the front hit it was pure blizzard joy as I watched the mercury fall on my cheap thermometer hanging on the window.

[Front Ranger]

I thought the Euro was king for precip?

[Blizzard777]

Guess who?

[TT-SEA]

I thought the Euro was king for precip?

Might be a trend with the 12Z runs... we will see.

[ShawniganLake]

Feb 2014?

Pretty weak from a Fraser River standpoint. Neither Abbotsford nor Agassiz managed to drop below 20F with that.

[Timmy Supercell]

The last true regional arctic airmass we had was December 2013. 

 

A much longer one too. It was the last of the kind that used to happen in the old days. 

[Jesse]

Guess who?

Isn’t that the guy who played Opie?

[TT-SEA]

I thought the Euro was king for precip?

12Z ECMWF is wet for Thursday evening too.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty weak from a Fraser River standpoint. Neither Abbotsford nor Agassiz managed to drop below 20F with that.

 

Yeah, it definitely wasn't much of a Fraser River blast, but I'd still call it a regional Arctic event. Sub-freezing highs for everyone from BLI to EUG.

[Canadian guy]

Pretty weak from a Fraser River standpoint. Neither Abbotsford nor Agassiz managed to drop below 20F with that.

The last real good Fraser river event was Jan 2012. 16-17 had lots of outflow but nothing notably cold. I feel we are due.

[Front Ranger]

A much longer one too. It was the last of the kind that used to happen in the old days. 

 

2006-14 was easily the best 6-7 year stretch for PNW Arctic outbreaks since the mid 1980s.

 

Nov 2006

Jan 2007

Dec 2008

Dec 2009

Nov 2010

Feb 2011

Dec 2013

Feb 2014

 

What stands out, of course, is that only one of them occurred in January. 

[Front Ranger]

The last real good Fraser river event was Jan 2012. 16-17 had lots of outflow but nothing notably cold. I feel we are due.

 

The mid December 2016 event seems underrated to me. Five straight sub-freezing highs at BLI, four straight 28 or colder, including 27/16 and 28/14 days.

[Timmy Supercell]

The mid December 2016 event seems underrated to me. Five straight sub-freezing highs at BLI, four straight 28 or colder, including 27/16 and 28/14 days.

 

I remember Dec 2016 at my place only ending about 1 degree below average. But maybe that was just me.

[Jesse]

12z Euro tries to give us a little backdoor action early next weekend.

 

It’s funny, Phil keeps posting long range maps about this unstoppable PV that will never be broken down, yet in the believable range the models keep trending toward more cold dropping into the lower 48.

[Jesse]

Wet pattern looks to be on California’s doorstep by day 7.

[stuffradio]

12z Euro tries to give us a little backdoor action early next weekend.

 

It’s funny, Phil keeps posting long range maps about this unstoppable PV that will never be broken down, yet in the believable range the models keep trending toward more cold dropping into the lower 48.

The real question is, is it or isn't it fake cold?

[Jesse]

The real question is, is it or isn't it fake cold?

If it wasn’t phorecasted it’s phake.

[Front Ranger]

I remember Dec 2016 at my place only ending about 1 degree below average. But maybe that was just me.

I just meant for Fraser outflow areas

[ShawniganLake]

The mid December 2016 event seems underrated to me. Five straight sub-freezing highs at BLI, four straight 28 or colder, including 27/16 and 28/14 days.

Pretty weak once you got away from places directly in the path of the outflow and not enough momentum to cross the Strait. I don’t see any stations reporting sub freezing highs in the Victoria region that month. Esquimalt’s monthly minimum was only 28.

[Jesse]

I just meant for Fraser outflow areas

It was a pretty cold month for much of the northern part of the PNW.

[Canadian guy]

The mid December 2016 event seems underrated to me. Five straight sub-freezing highs at BLI, four straight 28 or colder, including 27/16 and 28/14 days.

It was a nice little event but highs were a little above freezing here in Victoria and very little snow for everyone. 16-17 had quite a few events like that. The cold was just not notable for any of the events. Don't get me wrong though I still very much enjoyed that winter.

[ShawniganLake]

It was a pretty cold month for much of the northern part of the PNW.

There was a beautifully persistent chill that month.

[Front Ranger]

It was a pretty cold month for much of the northern part of the PNW.

 

Yes, it was.

 

I was talking specifically about that mid December event for the Fraser Valley. Rarely talked about, but actually one of the more impressive events for that area since 2012 (granted, that's not saying a whole lot), at least for temps and duration.

[Front Ranger]

It was a nice little event but highs were a little above freezing here in Victoria and very little snow for everyone. 16-17 had quite a few events like that. The cold was just not notable for any of the events. Don't get me wrong though I still very much enjoyed that winter.

 

Certainly nothing resembling a regional blast that winter. Just lots of Fraser and Gorge outflow, with a couple bouts of maritime cold.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tries to dangle a little-bitty carrot out there on the FV3-GFS. Some of the other models also hint at this pattern just not as extreme. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Update to a previous post.

 

November 5-12 Cold Stretch (records + departure from avg low in parentheses)

 

11/05: 51/17 (14 in 2011) (-10)

11/06: 50/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/07: 48/13 (2018)* (-14)

11/08: 53/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/09: 53/7 (2018)* (-19)

11/10: 54/12 (10 in 1985) (-14)

11/11: 52/15 (9 in 1985) (-11)

11/12: --/13 (3 in 1985) (-13)

 

Another 1985 record. Sometimes these are in groupings.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro tries to give us a little backdoor action early next weekend.

 

It’s funny, Phil keeps posting long range maps about this unstoppable PV that will never be broken down, yet in the believable range the models keep trending toward more cold dropping into the lower 48.

 

There has been no shortage of high latitude blocking this fall, and that looks to continue. Even the NAO is tanking here soon.

 

[Deweydog]

Guess who?

My wife showed my this last night. Crazy.

 

Global warming has aged him like no other.

[Jesse]

There was a beautifully persistent chill that month.

One of our crappier winters in recent memory.

[Jesse]

Update to a previous post.

November 5-12 Cold Stretch (records + departure from avg low in parentheses)

11/05: 51/17 (14 in 2011) (-10)

11/06: 50/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/07: 48/13 (2018)* (-14)

11/08: 53/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/09: 53/7 (2018)* (-19)

11/10: 54/12 (10 in 1985) (-14)

11/11: 52/15 (3 in 1985) (-11)

11/12: --/13 (-3 in 1985) (-13)

Another 1985 record. Sometimes these are in groupings.

I haven’t seen any record lows or temps that cold up here, a few hundred miles away and in an entirely different climate zone. I am skeptical.

[Front Ranger]

The 12z Euro shows a fairly progressive pattern, moving the split-flow stuff along by day 9, with a big storm right off BC at day 10.

 

And a monster Icelandic/Scandinavian block, which is a hallmark of low solar. I think we're going to see a lot more NH cold records fall in the coming months.