November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

Beautiful day in Newport Beach...

 

This is a PNW page

[Guest Dome Buster]

Post after post of you guys speculating on long range models. You do realize how poor they are at even 4 days do you not? 06z trended this way, 12z trended that way. Doesn't matter as mother nature will do as she pleases.

 

That being said I do agree with the optimism displayed towards the weakening nino and accompanying low solar.

[TT-SEA]

This is a PNW page

Appears to be a beautiful day in North Bend as well. Looks like we might get lucky and have another nice weekend next week as well.

[El_Nina]

We run above average a lot more than we run below.

[Front Ranger]

We're almost back in neutral territory for the 3.4 index. This is not an organized el Nino.

 

111118nino34.png

 

Ups and downs. It's probably settled into a weak Nino.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

Ups and downs. It's probably settled into a weak Nino.

I’d agree with Geos simply due to the potent intraseasonal expression in the convection thus far. The aforementioned variability in SSTAs is a result of this. There is indeed a weak +ENSO expression in convection, but the higher frequency MJO/AAM components are stronger, by comparison.

 

This is not behavior you typically see in an established niño regime.

[Phil]

[MikeInEverett]

Post after post of you guys speculating on long range models. You do realize how poor they are at even 4 days do you not? 06z trended this way, 12z trended that way. Doesn't matter as mother nature will do as she pleases.

 

That being said I do agree with the optimism displayed towards the weakening nino and accompanying low solar.

Part of the purpose of this forum is model discussion. A pattern change being shown on hour 384 is more exciting to talk about than the current weather at the moment.

I don’t see the problem talking about eye candy at hour 384 as this current pattern is a snoozefest. (The crisp cool sunshine is nice however)

[Timmy Supercell]

Still got yellow jackets flying around. Even after the bone biting cold I have recently gotten.

 

What is this rubbish?

[Guest Dome Buster]

Part of the purpose of this forum is model discussion. A pattern change being shown on hour 384 is more exciting to talk about than the current weather at the moment.

I don’t see the problem talking about eye candy at hour 384 as this current pattern is a snoozefest. (The crisp cool sunshine is nice however)

Hr 384 is always a pattern change. Do you enjoy closing your eyes and throwing darts?

[Timmy Supercell]

Post after post of you guys speculating on long range models. You do realize how poor they are at even 4 days do you not? 06z trended this way, 12z trended that way. Doesn't matter as mother nature will do as she pleases.

 

That being said I do agree with the optimism displayed towards the weakening nino and accompanying low solar.

 

You're acting like anything past about a few days has a 0% chance of materializing. Times like both of the Jan 2017 snowstorms or the June 2009 t'storms were shown on models probably a week out. I know that's not very common but still.. lol

 

December 2008 was also shown well ahead of time if I recall correctly too.

[Timmy Supercell]

Burns, OR hit -3 this morning. Not a record though. That was set in 1985 when they hit -10.

 

Yeah that place normally gets very cold. I was only 15 here this morning.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The hawks will hang around but I doubt they have 4 quarters in them.

[Timmy Supercell]

November 5-11 Cold Stretch (records + departure from avg low in parentheses)

 

11/05: 51/17 (14 in 2011) (-10)

11/06: 50/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/07: 48/13 (2018)* (-14)

11/08: 53/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/09: 53/7 (2018)* (-19)

11/10: 54/12 (10 in 1985) (-14)

11/11: --/15 (9 in 1985) (-11)

 

Since we haven't reached the high yet that will need to be filled in later.

[MossMan]

If we want to have any chance of beating the Rams we will need to keep up with them in the TD department, just like last time.

 

With 14 points already in the 1st quarter, it's exactly the type of start we need.

The last series was a bummer though. But yeah it’s refreshing to see some good offense in the first quarter!

[MossMan]

Well that was fun while it lasted.

[Geos]

Ups and downs. It's probably settled into a weak Nino.

 

Yeah I think that's what it is going to be. Just looking at all the regional indexes, their all between +0.7 and +0.3. So weak ENSO. 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[umadbro]

I honestly have no idea why domebuster cares that people are talking about weather models on a weather forum.

[umadbro]

Seahawks are 1 dimensional and Pete Carroll is too stubborn to get creative. It will be his downfall.

[Blizzard777]

Wind advisory posted for Portland/Vancouver area (good old east wind). Still light east winds and sunny out here in Tigard. Can’t believe I was out jumping on the trampoline with Grandson in the middle of Nov. feels like a summer day.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I honestly have no idea why domebuster cares that people are talking about weather models on a weather forum.

I dont care that people are. I just care that they give certain timeframes the weight they deserve. Show me something fun within 120 hours and you have my attention. Showing a snowstorm on Nov. 27th as we sit here on the 11th is just plain silly. That map is just as likely to show Nevada as beachfront property.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Seahawks are 1 dimensional and Pete Carroll is too stubborn to get creative. It will be his downfall.

I have felt that way all year but the defense is playing well today against a great offense. Halftime show hit it on the head. We need to put an extra blocker on Donald and try to drive the ball downfield.

[MossMan]

Dumb dumb dumb. Ifedi.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Dumb dumb dumb. Ifedi.

He has actually had his best year. Just needs to clean up these types of things.

[MossMan]

He has actually had his best year. Just needs to clean up these types of things.

Well it all ended up working out! The Rams have actually had more dumb penalties than us.

[MossMan]

The heck...why???

[Guest Dome Buster]

The heck...why???

Hold them to a field goal now I guess. Keep it one score.

[TT-SEA]

The heck...why???

They are destined to give away close games now. The opposite of the glory years. But at least they kept it close! Pee Wee trophies for all.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Time for the line to max protect. Give Russ some time!!!

[MossMan]

Well that should do it.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Ya. Lets give a rich wife beater another free football. Idiots.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

O line has been the hawks downfall for years now.  That'll do it.

[TT-SEA]

Well that should do it.

They are very predictable now in close games. Keep it close for most of the game... cough it away... come back and make it respectable but still lose.

 

And then Pete is on 710 tomorrow saying how proud he his that they kept fighting.

 

No playoffs again this year. Tired formula.

[snow_wizard]

A nice crisp 48 - 27 today at my place.  That makes 4 straight sub 50 highs and 4 straight lows of 30 or below.  Pretty respectable for this time of year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One more chance

[MossMan]

Well at least it’s been a fun game!

[TT-SEA]

Same thing. Find a way to lose the close games.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse. You all could be Jets fans!

[Deweydog]

One thing I've noticed with this year's Seahawk team is in almost all their losses they get outscored by the opposition.