November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

49/29 today with morning fog and frost, then partly cloudy to overcast conditions later on.

 

Coldest day of the season so far, and also the first high in the 40s, first low in the 20s, and first freeze.

 

 

I am loving the cold temps!  The change was really sudden and noticeable.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...we are in a 23 day spotless streak on the sun now.  Flux levels indicate we are still not to the minimum.

[MossMan]

Jim’s back! Now we just need the Gordon Fisherman to arrive for the season and we will be set!

[MossMan]

The ever-reliable hour produces again.

Great low placement! Book it!

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ever-reliable hour produces again.

That makes my inner child giddy...

[Phil]

Unloading.

 

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/snowshoe-village-live-cam

[Phil]

Some of the 00z GEFS members have the modest wave activity spike too. Hopefully the start of a trend.

[weatherfan2012]

I don’t think so (although I hope you’re right, lol).

Geomagnetic activity has been too high this autumn, and the QBO is much farther along this year.

Maybe next year?

which is why I fail to see why so many outlooks are going all in this year and its not just the weenies or joe bastardi that doing it but really most of the mets this year.I think a large bit of the problem May be is you and others go deeper into these patterns and unfortunately most of the mets only go by a few of the factors don't get me wrong they are great and respectful promet forecasters but because they are only going by a few factors I think they are missing alot of other factors and not really realiseing its a bit more complex this year but I do hope there high snow outlooks are right

[Phil]

Some of the 00z GEFS members have the modest wave activity spike too. Hopefully the start of a trend.

So does the GEPS. Hmm.

[Phil]

[Phil]

Where in the Pacific Northwest is this?

Kayla’s yard.

[Kayla]

Kayla’s yard.

 

My yard has MUCH more snow than that little dusting. 

[snow maniac]

Yellowjackets still going strong. Latest I ever remember them out like this.

Beautiful day with sunshine and clear skies 52F.

Yes they are, I work in the woods every day and they are still very active if their nests are in the ground. Stepped on one yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

00z GFS has better wave activity towards the end.

 

We’ll see. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2018111000&fh=-54

 

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA had a high of 43. Better than nothing. Skies are pretty clear so I am thinking most places are going be lower than projected tonight.

 

I was wrong.  Clouds did move in and kept the temp at 41 all night.

[Andrew.]

It's only 372 hours away guys!

 

Lock it in

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MossMan]

[MossMan]

A ray of foggy sun!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful.

Yep. Pretty ugly

[MossMan]

Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful.

Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?

[TT-SEA]

Yep. Pretty ugly

 

 

Good pattern for some rain in CA.

[snow_wizard]

We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs.  During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days.  The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising.  We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5.  This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead.

[TT-SEA]

Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?

 

Probably not the entire winter season.    Maybe years like 2014-15 and 2002-03 were close.    I am sure there are some others. 

[Jesse]

Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?

Yes!! Plenty!

[TT-SEA]

We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs.  During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days.  The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising.  We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5.  This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead.

 

 

I sure hope its peaked now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like split flow dominates the 12Z GFS... fairy dry and uneventful.

 

Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. 

 

Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in.

[snow_wizard]

Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?

 

I'm not at all worried about split flow in November.  The net result of the pattern advertised looks pretty chilly overall to me.

[snow_wizard]

Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. 

 

Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in.

 

Anything other than the pattern we had the first week of the month works for me.  I hated those warm nights.

[TT-SEA]

Probably the determining factor as to whether or not we see some cool troughing. 

 

Another low of 32 this morning as skies cleared. At least we are getting our freezes in.

 

Dry and quiet weather from now through February is almost a lock for chilly nights.   Not good for skiing... but good for lowland cold.

[Phil]

20D835EC-C2FE-45F7-996C-6AB87385AF6E.png

Ha..that’s a good swing on the 06z.

[TT-SEA]

To Jim's point... quite a drop!  

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The good thing about the pattern advertised the next two weeks is persistent above normal heights over the GOA.  Good things often result from that.

[MossMan]

Good pattern for some rain in CA.

Just found out that a relatives house burned down in the Paradise Fire, they barely made it out. They would be very thankful for any moisture.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I predict the Beavers lose @ Stanford

Ducks lose @ Utah

Cougs win @ Colorado

 

Huskies on bye

 

When's the last time the Ducks or Beavers played in a notable winter weather game in November?

[TT-SEA]

Cool view from North Bend this morning...

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Another chilly morning with a low of 14, but no record this time. Record is 10 in 1985. Included in with last several lows it's definitely a cool stretch.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

We have some excellent evidence the atmosphere is failing to couple with the warm ENSO SSTs.  During the recent spike to +1.5 on the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly we had a positive 30 day SOI which has only become more robust the last few days.  The 30 day SOI is nearly +5 now and the 90 day is also rising.  We also have a full blown Indian Ocean (soon to become Maritime Continent) MJO wave, and the October MEI was lower than September coming in below +0.5.  This will be interesting to follow, but the evidence suggests this possible Nino has an uphill battle ahead.

Do you think this will continue to drop the SST anomalies?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[BLI snowman]

Could be a good thing to get the split flow now than December or January. Have we ever had a winter where split flow dominated for the entire winter season?

2004-05, 1940-41

 

This winter looks like it's gonna go down that path. So Cal is due for a winter like that.