November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

I haven’t seen any record lows or temps that cold up here, a few hundred miles away and in an entirely different climate zone. I am skeptical.

 

Locally, this is a lot cooler than Nov 2014. That was a nothing burger here. Even Nov 2010 had cooler lows.

[ShawniganLake]

One of our crappier winters in recent memory.

You lost me with this post. Sarcasm?

[stuffradio]

You lost me with this post. Sarcasm?

Maybe he's talking about his own region. Winter 2016-17 was great up here!

[Jesse]

You lost me with this post. Sarcasm?

Of course. Seems to be getting a little downplayed. There may have not been any big arctic airmasses but we really haven’t seen anything close to it in terms of persistent regional cold for many years.

[ShawniganLake]

Of course. Seems to be getting a little downplayed. There may have not been any big arctic airmasses but we really haven’t seen anything close to it in terms of persistent regional cold for many years.

Ahh. Yes definitely. 3 months of weather that resembled winter.

[Jesse]

Ahh. Yes definitely. 3 months of weather that resembled winter.

Pretty outlandish these days!

[Timmy Supercell]

Of course. Seems to be getting a little downplayed. There may have not been any big arctic airmasses but we really haven’t seen anything close to it in terms of persistent regional cold for many years.

 

Yeah it was short but KLMT managed the 5th coldest low in its history. Should count for something. 

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty outlandish these days!

If we could have managed a legitimate arctic front in there somewhere, it would have had a real old school feel to it.

[stuffradio]

Pretty outlandish these days!

We had salt wars up here!

[Jesse]

Yeah it was short but KLMT managed the 5th coldest low in its history. Should count for something.

Short? The whole point of that post is that it was persistent cold.

[Jesse]

If we could have managed a legitimate arctic front in there somewhere, it would have had a real old school feel to it.

Indeed.

[Timmy Supercell]

Short? The whole point of that post is that it was persistent cold.

 

Was referring to the Jan 2017 arctic blast, which most of the whole region did get. Way shorter than 2013 put it that way.

[stuffradio]

Was referring to the Jan 2017 arctic blast, which most of the whole region did get. Way shorter than 2013 put it that way.

Jan was nothing special here, but Feb went back into the freezer.

[AbbyJr]

Another meteorologist arguing that the blob impacts the large scale weather patterns by promoting a W coast ridge. He discusses it around the 8 minute mark.

What are all of your thoughts?

[Jesse]

Was referring to the Jan 2017 arctic blast, which most of the whole region did get. Way shorter than 2013 put it that way.

Your perception of events seems pretty confined to the immediate Klamath Falls area.

[Jesse]

January 2017 and the 2016/17 winter (Dec-Feb)

 

 

[Jesse]

Versus December 2013 and the 2013-14 winter (Dec-Feb) which is probably the closest runner up this decade and had a few “real” arctic airmasses.

 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Your perception of events seems pretty confined to the immediate Klamath Falls area.

 

Not really. PDX in early Jan 2017 was cooler than in the entire previous month. And I think Seattle had similar too.

[Bryant]

Another meteorologist arguing that the blob impacts the large scale weather patterns by promoting a W coast ridge. He discusses it around the 8 minute mark.

 

 

What are all of your thoughts?

It's been a chicken or egg argument whenever it has been discussed. I'm of the opinion that the blob is a result of the upper air patterns, and not the other way around.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm not disputing Dec 2016, I was just singling out the first half of Jan 2017 in that a wider area in the region had a share of colder temps.

 

Both PDX and SEA also look like they got slightly colder than in December.

[Jesse]

It's been a chicken or egg argument whenever it has been discussed. I'm of the opinion that the blob is a result of the upper air patterns, and not the other way around.

I tend to agree.

[AbbyJr]

It's been a chicken or egg argument whenever it has been discussed. I'm of the opinion that the blob is a result of the upper air patterns, and not the other way around.

 

I agree. The blob actually did not appear until long after the ridge was already in place. It baffles me that even professional meteorologists attribute the blob to the development of the ridge, when in fact, the blob didn't appear until after the ridge had already developed.

[Front Ranger]

It's been a chicken or egg argument whenever it has been discussed. I'm of the opinion that the blob is a result of the upper air patterns, and not the other way around.

 

It's probably 80% chicken, 20% egg. As in, it probably does have a small effect on temps, though it's not a driver of upper air patterns at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter of 2016-17 was a MUCH better winter than 13-14. Outside of the arctic outbreak in early December and early February there was literally nothing of interest that winter. I remember hiking to the top of Table Rock in the Western Cascades at almost 5000' in early January and there only being a couple inches of snow on the summit. Overall 16-17 was a pretty solid winter regionally. Arguably the best since 1992-93 and definitely the best since 2008-09.

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10-15 EPS builds warmth across all of southern Canada

 

[Jesse]

Day 10-15 EPS builds warmth across all of southern Canada

 

469A44FA-1AB6-48DE-A107-8ECEB55CAAD9.png

 

At least Baffin Isloland is torching.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Look at how deep this trough digs... I'm with Jesse, the amount of amplification and southern penetration on these cold airmasses has been astounding.

[Phil]

Still really impressed with the amount of available cold air up north.

Me too.

 

Unfortunately, long range models want to keep it centered over Baffin Island again into December, which is where you *don’t* want it, if you live west of the Rockies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS has been leading the way for about two years now. Really no reason to look at anything else.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Me too.

 

Unfortunately, long range models want to keep it centered over Baffin Island again into December, which is where you *don’t* want it, if you live west of the Rockies.

 

I am wishcasting it further west!

[Timmy Supercell]

Winter of 2016-17 was a MUCH better winter than 13-14. Outside of the arctic outbreak in early December and early February there was literally nothing of interest that winter. I remember hiking to the top of Table Rock in the Western Cascades at almost 5000' in early January and there only being a couple inches of snow on the summit. Overall 16-17 was a pretty solid winter regionally. Arguably the best since 1992-93 and definitely the best since 2008-09.

 

Coincidentally I had my best snow since Jan 1993.

[Phil]

At least Baffin Isloland is torching.

As if that has a chance of happening.

[Jesse]

Coincidentally I had my best snow since Jan 1993.

 

Coincidentally I also had snow here when it was cold enough and moisture was present.

[Phil]

I am wishcasting it further west!

I’m wishcasting a SSW and a wave-2 structure to the tropical forcing.

 

That’s how you score a mega Arctic blast in the PNW during a +ENSO winter.

[Timmy Supercell]

Coincidentally I also had snow here when it was cold enough and moisture was present.

 

You're in a funny mood today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coincidentally I had my best snow since Jan 1993.

 

Salem had 32" of snow in 92-93. It is their snowiest winter since 1968-69 and I think 5th all time for snowfall.

[Jesse]

You're in a funny mood today.

 

Always!

[Phil]

12z Euro tries to give us a little backdoor action early next weekend.

 

It’s funny, Phil keeps posting long range maps about this unstoppable PV that will never be broken down, yet in the believable range the models keep trending toward more cold dropping into the lower 48.

The TPV (tropospheric vortex) isn’t fully coupled to the stratosphere yet. A month from now, most of the country west of the Ohio Valley would be f**ked under this regime.

 

Only the south/southeast US look “safe” to have a solid winter, IMO. The rest of us willl need to wait for that answer.

[Phil]

If it wasn’t phorecasted it’s phake.

Phil is an evil trollolol.

[Jesse]

Phil is an evil trollolol.

Just a little sometimes.