November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really hope we can get an SSW soon.

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Not true, we need five consecutive trimonthly averages of +0.5c or higher in region 3.4 for official status. SON is assured that right now and OND will very likely wind up there as well, so we're effectively 2/5 of the way there.

 

Looks like a late blooming, weak El Nino to me. 2006-07 is probably the best ENSO match, and of course that November couldn't be more opposite than this one here.

El Niño certainly isn’t out of the question, but neither is a warm neutral from what I can tell. Granted it seems like you have been following it closer than I have.

[Jesse]

[AbbyJr]

Really hope we can get an SSW soon.

I think a SSW event is really necessary to shake up the atmosphere and get us out of this current pattern. It won't guarantee us arctic air and snow, but I think its our only hope. 

[Jesse]

I think a SSW event is really necessary to shake up the atmosphere and get us out of this current pattern. It won't guarantee us arctic air and snow, but I think its our only hope.

You are coming dangerously close to getting the November 13th lecture.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, January 16 onwards is basically a throwaway in any El Nino year no matter how weak, whereas the opposite is true with cold ENSO (like last winter). And the early returns aren't encouraging.

 

It's also pretty atypical for us to score arctic air before we've had any kind of prolonged jet activity first, and there's still none of that in sight. If the action ever does pick up in the next few weeks I suspect it'll be of the mild/wet variety.

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but the wild card here is solar. Arctic air into the lower 48, as well as the PNW, is more common with the high latitude blocking that accompanies solar min.

 

We are currently entering a very low solar min, following the weakest solar max in a century. The last solar min delivered the winters of 2008-11, which featured a combination of -EPO/-NAO unlike anything we'd seen in quite awhile. This fall looks to be heading that direction as well. 

 

In other words, I'm not sure all the regular rules apply here, especially given the weak nature of other forcings this year.

[Deweydog]

You are coming dangerously close to getting the November 13th lecture.

It was purely informational. Simmer down.

 

Meteorological Winter starts in 17 days for all those home winterizing procrastinators!

[Jesse]

It was purely informational. Simmer down.

 

Meteorological Winter starts in 17 days for all those home winterizing procrastinators!

Calm the **** down Matt.

[BLI snowman]

El Niño certainly isn’t out of the question, but neither is a warm neutral from what I can tell. Granted it seems like you have been following it closer than I have.

 

The trimonthly average should already safely peak in +0.6-0.7 territory

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Spring 1993 is the only time I see a peak that high without an officially established El Nino, so it would be pretty unusual for this to not get to Nino status given the relative organization it's displayed.

[BLI snowman]

It's November 13th.

 

Don't get caught in a Justin October 2018 situation and give up too soon. Although paying off bets is apparently not a Bellingham thing to do.

 

You still mad about the November wildfire thing?

 

I agree that it sucks.

[Front Ranger]

The trimonthly average should already safely peak in +0.6-0.7 territory

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

Spring 1993 is the only time I see a peak that high without an officially established El Nino, so it would be pretty unusual for this to not get to Nino status given the relative organization it's displayed.

 

Others have commented recently on how disorganized it seems. Definitely some big swings up and down, that's for sure.

[Geos]

Q13 just told how to prepare my roof for a heavy snow load, they must have seen Phil’s posts this evening!

That's funny. I usually only see the roofs made for a lot of snow (metal roofs) from like Index eastward and like the deeper vallies of the mountains.

[BLI snowman]

Not to beat a dead horse, but the wild card here is solar. Arctic air into the lower 48, as well as the PNW, is more common with the high latitude blocking that accompanies solar min.

 

We are currently entering a very low solar min, following the weakest solar max in a century. The last solar min delivered the winters of 2008-11, which featured a combination of -EPO/-NAO unlike anything we'd seen in quite awhile. This fall looks to be heading that direction as well. 

 

In other words, I'm not sure all the regular rules apply here, especially given the weak nature of other forcings this year.

 

1933-34 was also a solar minimum year. 

 

I'd like to think there's a correlation, but I'm not sure it's some kind of a big hitter for us.

[Geos]

Totally clouded up now. Been consistent with lows in the 30a lately with this morning in the mid 30s.

[BLI snowman]

Others have commented recently on how disorganized it seems. Definitely some big swings up and down, that's for sure.

 

Basin wide temps were in Nino territory at the latest weekly update. And the pattern forcings have been pretty Nino-esque already across North America. The temp activity in 3.4 has been fickle, but certainly seems to be weighing away from a true neutral setup.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Chilly up at my cabin. 30 for a high yesterday after a low of 15 lastnight. Lots of frost and a little snow.

[Timmy]

A friend just posted a video of it snowing in Houston.

[Jesse]

A friend just posted a video of it snowing in Houston.

20 years ago there were glaciers in Houston.

[Timmy Supercell]

November 5-13 Cold Stretch (records + departure from avg low in parentheses)

 

11/05: 51/17 (14 in 2011) (-10)

11/06: 50/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/07: 48/13 (2018)* (-14)

11/08: 53/14 (2018)* (-13)

11/09: 53/7 (2018)* (-19)

11/10: 54/12 (10 in 1985) (-14)

11/11: 52/15 (9 in 1985) (-11)

11/12: 57/13 (3 in 1985) (-13)

11/13: --/18 (2 in 1985) (-8)

 

Once again record from 1985.

 

Now lows are looking less impressive so maybe I should close this today or tomorrow.

[Kayla]

Not likely coming from CA.

 

It's from the Camp Fire in California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very smokey here in Salem.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very smokey here in Salem.

 

Same in Springfield   Novaugust.

[Jesse]

Very smokey here in Salem.

Smoke seems shallower than usual for November.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still very drought like in the okanogan highlands. Hopefully some more rain and snow are not far away.

[Deweydog]

You still mad about the November wildfire thing?

 

I agree that it sucks.

Losing a bet like that is nothing to be ashamed of. You stuck your neck out there but ultimately common sense prevailed. You should still stick to it, though. Bad form. You and we will be warm nosed later this winter as punishment. Thanks, assh*le!

[ShawniganLake]

EPS through day 15 has quite the stinky El Niño smell to it.

[Phil]

YEAH BABY.

 

Old school -NAM here.

 

[TT-SEA]

It's from the Camp Fire in California.

 

Interesting... we flew right over that yesterday and there was a clearly defined line of smoke on the north side of the fire area (well south of Oregon) and there were plumes of new smoke moving to the southwest.    

 

The smoke must be getting picked up and drawn northward once it gets higher in the atmosphere.  

[Jesse]

EPS through day 15 has quite the stinky El Niño smell to it.

The site I use only shows it through day 10. At least it shows something besides a ridge over us days 7-10.

[ShawniganLake]

There is a trough that swings thru for a couple days around day 8 and then it turns to this.

 

[TT-SEA]

The site I use only shows it through day 10. At least it shows something besides a ridge over us days 7-10.

 

12Z EPS shows split flow... Ninoish like he said.

 

 

[Phil]

Really hope we can get an SSW soon.

I don’t blame you. If there is a way to break from +ENSO climo, a SSW is the way to do it.

[Front Ranger]

1933-34 was also a solar minimum year.

 

I'd like to think there's a correlation, but I'm not sure it's some kind of a big hitter for us.

1933-34 was also strong ENSO.

[Phil]

Getting a legit -NAO with a strong PV aloft would be quite the accomplishment. This breaker does extend to 30mb up there (which is impressive) but it’s not a top-down style event in the least.

 

Recently, even perturbed vortex regimes have failed to eliminate the +NAO. So if this happens, it’s definitely a huge swing and could suggest the 2014-2018 +NAO streak is ending.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS shows split flow... Ninoish like he said.

 

 

 

Jim would point out the positive height anomalies in the GOA.

[Phil]

And keep in mind that, without a +NAO/WHEM-IO subsidence, the +PNA will also either weaken or reverse with time. Because the boundary conditions that produce the +NAO also tend to produce a +PNA.

[TT-SEA]

Jim would point out the positive height anomalies in the GOA.

 

Point out whatever you want... its a weather map.   

[Jesse]

There is a trough that swings thru for a couple days around day 8 and then it turns to this.

 

1ADC9B02-94B7-402C-B518-7D9F05EAD65F.png

I see. Thanks for posting this. Still beats the current pattern I suppose, and that range is always subject to change.

[Phil]

I see. Thanks for posting this. Still beats the current pattern I suppose, and that range is always subject to change.

If the downstream blocking verifies as-modeled (big if) then I’m betting on a few surprises out there. The location of that wavebreak is a good one to feedback upstream.

 

Like last year, this is the type of stuff that doesn’t always show up until it’s 4-5 days out. Models don’t extrapolate wavebreaks well at all.