brianc400 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Well if this pans out it will be an interesting welcome for my new colleague from Mexico on his first trip to Chicago. Someone earlier mentioned that the warm lake may keep snow totals down in the city. Yes, but the cold November has driven lake water temps down near 5° below normal for this time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yeah - I know HRRR / RAP at long range... but it sure looks a lot like the GFS / FV3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I am afraid to get my snowblower ready so as not to jinx any chance at more snow! 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Yeah - I know HRRR / RAP at long range... but it sure looks a lot like the GFS / FV3hrrr_asnow_ncus_31.pngCrazy sharp cut off between Douglas and Sarpy county. Omaha looks like 5 and I'm in the 8 inch area. Either way it did come north a hair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Timing? Niece is driving to central Illinois from West Michigan on Sunday. Anyone have a time when precip is supposed to break out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM looks S -- keep me posted -- gotta drive!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM is south does something odd over Omaha with snow totals. I would guess the warm air hangs on to long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Looks like it’s siding with the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Chicago gets smoked on the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 You have to believe the gfs will correct to the euro with the 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM jumping back south 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 The Chicago magnet is on full force!! Better start a Indian snow dance to counter the Chicago magnet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Chicago gets smoked on the nam Did I not mention NAM would eventually be hotness over our way once in range? 'grats ova there NIL peeps Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 @Tom Euro maps you posted sure are some genuine jaw-dropping eye candy, especially by November stds. While it crushes NIL with snow totals, it seems to back off a bit over SMI. Where as the Ukie actually has higher qpf over SWMI. What's your take on why the Euro doesn't just keep the same snow totals eastward into SWMI? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 The Chicago magnet is on full force!! Better start a Indian snow dance to counter the Chicago magnet! Need the Detroit peeps to pump their magnet a touch and pull some of that juicy stuff over mby as well Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Alright, NAM has done its job. Your turn GFS and FV3! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 NAM has not been the least bit consistent. It wavers N/S every other run. While I still think the GFS caves, using the NAM as an indicator probably isn’t wise. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 12z NAM delivers 8" hit here in Calhoun Cnty but that's a 10:1 map. I'm thinking this will be more like 8:1 cement stuff so prolly more like 6" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Icon seems to be a little south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Nice in-depth disco out of DTX this morning explains some key players on the field and why the 12z suite should be telling for those of us further eastward in the sub. PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018DISCUSSION...Periods of rain will continue this morning and then gradually endfrom southwest to northeast across the area as mid level trough axispivots through the region. With temperatures in the lower 40s acrossthe area early this morning, and forecast to edge up into the mid40s, there is no threat of freezing precipitation with this system.While rain will end later today, cloudy skies will persist on intotonight and Sunday.The next storm system, which has the potential to be much moreimpactful, will already be working into the region by late Sunday.The strong shortwave that will be the main driver of this nextwinter storm is currently digging aggressively from the PacificNorthwest towards the central Rocky Mountains early this morning.Over the course of the day, this shortwave will phase with an activesubtropical jet with the resultant strong cyclogenesis occurring asenergy emerges into the central high plains.This system will then take aim on the central Great Lakes and farnorthern Ohio Valley. The initial period of cyclogenesis over thehigh plains will wane briefly by early Sunday morning, but secondarydevelop will ensue as upper jet energy wraps into the system. Thiswill lead to steady strengthening of low pressure as it tracks fromMissouri into Southern Lower Michigan on Sunday night. The expectedtrack of this system will be over the top the forecast area whichwill put the region in a tight transition zone between heavy snowalong the northern edge of precipitation to rain (eventuallychanging to snow) further south. The heaviest precipitation willfocus from 21z-00z through 09z-12z as a well organized deformationzone lifts across the area.Snow amount forecasting remains very tricky with this system giventhe tight gradient between areas that will see mainly snow and thosethat see mainly rain during the heaviest precipitation. At thistime, it appears the Saginaw Valley stands the best chance ofnotable snow accumulations with a much lesser chance south to nearthe Michigan and Ohio state line. For the forecast, no headlineswill be issue given the remaining uncertainty.The shortwave in question will be well sampled from the 12zradiosonde suite. In addition, a secondary PV anomaly diggingthrough northern British Columbia will be sampled fairly well. Asthe strength and speed of this secondary system will impact thetrack of the main storm system, this better sampling should allowthe 12z model suite to start honing in on the track of this system.With this additional information, Winter Storm Watch decisions willcome today this far east into lower Michigan.While the bulk of precipitation will fall before 12z Monday morning,lighter precipitation on the tail end of this storm system willpersist into Monday morning. This will either be all snow orchanging quickly to all snow as colder air filters into the areawith the passage of the low pressure center to the east.A colder weather pattern then sets back up as mean upper trough inthe northern stream expands over the eastern CONUS. This colderpattern pretty much holds for the balance of next week as 30s willbe common for high temperatures and 20s will be the rule overnight.Once this strong storm system passes early in the week, only expectperiods of flurries/light snow showers at times as various shortwavedisturbances, enhanced by lake effect activity within cold west tonorthwest flow, sweep through the area. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Icon seems to be a little south Seems like a "nudge" south is going to be a theme for 12z Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 @Tom Euro maps you posted sure are some genuine jaw-dropping eye candy, especially by November stds. While it crushes NIL with snow totals, it seems to back off a bit over SMI. Where as the Ukie actually has higher qpf over SWMI. What's your take on why the Euro doesn't just keep the same snow totals eastward into SWMI?It may be seeing a warm layer and thus limiting snow production At this point, I would pay attn where this pivot happens and where the warm tongue approaches near your area. It seems to me the higher rez models are bringing it very close to your back yard. With that in mind, where this rain/snow line sets up, I'm seeing pretty good signals that thunderstorms may get entrenched into the cold sector...Thundersnow??? Man, look at this HRRR and higher rez NAM almost creating a trowel feature towards the end of the run. Models are suggesting intensification as it approaches the lower GL's. The trough looks like it may be trying to go neg tilt as it heads up our way...remember, this is where the LRC's long term long wave trough has set up and where systems have intensified so I think this last minute trend is our friend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Well the NAM sucked for my area. It’s even worse than the Euro now. Euro still had 6” over me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Why. Are. People. Using. The. NAM? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Timing? Niece is driving to central Illinois from West Michigan on Sunday. Anyone have a time when precip is supposed to break out?Right around Noon or so, if she wants to beat this storm, I think she'll have to leave late tonight around 3:00am or even earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Why. Are. People. Using. The. NAM?It's not just the NAM, nearly every model is now seeing what the Euro/Ukie have been showing over the past couple runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Geeze, this is going to be some low ratio snow around these parts. Here is WGN's take on the snow amounts right now.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 12z icon looks like the euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MudCutter Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I live about a half hour SE of Dsm. The weather channel says i could get 8-12 inches. What do you guys think?#bruce Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I wouldn’t go with it more like 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I live about a half hour SE of Dsm. The weather channel says i could get 8-12 inches. What do you guys think?#bruce sounds like the gfs but that will head south in the 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 RGEM blasts southern Iowa from just about i80 and south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Winter Storm Watches hoisted from I-80 on north in N IL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 I expect the GFS to cave this run. Quite disappointing, but whatever I suppose. Still early. Just hope to see things stay active! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 It may be seeing a warm layer and thus limiting snow production At this point, I would pay attn where this pivot happens and where the warm tongue approaches near your area. It seems to me the higher rez models are bringing it very close to your back yard. With that in mind, where this rain/snow line sets up, I'm seeing pretty good signals that thunderstorms may get entrenched into the cold sector...Thundersnow??? Man, look at this HRRR and higher rez NAM almost creating a trowel feature towards the end of the run. Models are suggesting intensification as it approaches the lower GL's. The trough looks like it may be trying to go neg tilt as it heads up our way...remember, this is where the LRC's long term long wave trough has set up and where systems have intensified so I think this last minute trend is our friend. Thx for your insights buddy. As for the portion I underlined, I have to reach way way back to when I was like 21 y.o. to remember the days when we had this set-up. A storm starting as rain, then strengthening in the region and causing a rapid transition to +SN. And then it was never in Nov! I was in SEMI then and the results were normally 4-6" of concrete mixer stuff. The density of the snow made roads much worse tho and with it happening so quickly plow crews didn't keep up thus on an impact level it actually was worse imho than a 6-8" traditional warned storm. Getting kinda pumped again after deflation via the GooFuS models all day yesterday. Gotta put the final touches on my Christmas lighting I did yesterday. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Winter Storm Watches hoisted from I-80 on north in N IL! Congrats on your headlines amigo! GRR shoulda just issued an SWS overnight and waited for this morning's suite. but, tis GRR - sigh 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 Thx for your insights buddy. As for the portion I underlined, I have to reach way way back to when I was like 21 y.o. to remember the days when we had this set-up. A storm starting as rain, then strengthening in the region and causing a rapid transition to +SN. And then it was never in Nov! I was in SEMI then and the results were normally 4-6" of concrete mixer stuff. The density of the snow made roads much worse tho and with it happening so quickly plow crews didn't keep up thus on an impact level it actually was worse imho than a 6-8" traditional warned storm. Getting kinda pumped again after deflation via the GooFuS models all day yesterday. Gotta put the final touches on my Christmas lighting I did yesterday.You are likely going to be re-living those golden years of the past my friend. What a turnaround in just 24 hours...not to shabby, right??? Same here, I just got back from the stores and purchased some more outdoor LED lights/icicles and plan on putting the rest up later this afternoon. Need to eat and take a power nap beforehand though...woke up way to early today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 24, 2018 Report Share Posted November 24, 2018 It's not just the NAM, nearly every model is now seeing what the Euro/Ukie have been showing over the past couple runs.Yes and I recognize that, but the NAM doing anything shouldn’t be sufficient justification as it’s had every solution under the sun the past 8 runs. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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