December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also the winter of 98-99 had an insane higher elevation snow pack. I remember going to Green Lakes in the Three Sisters Wilderness in late July and the lakes were still completely iced over and there was about 8-10' of solid snow cover still on the ground. We had to abandon the trail on the way in and hike up Fall Creek which was buried somewhere beneath us in the snow. There were still patches of snow at Santiam Pass on the way over.

[Front Ranger]

Are you really posting a map between mid-month periods?   Capturing two dry periods in there and only one of the wet periods?   Nice job buddy!  

 

Are you going to tell me that it was not almost perfectly normal in the Snoqualmie Valley in the month of November?    Really?   Because it was about as close to normal for the month of Novermber as it gets around here.    

 

And December is right on track as well.   

 

But the first week of December looked like crippling drought on those maps.   It did not rain here!!!     It has now.   

 

Check again. I posted the December map as well.

[Requiem]

It does not look good for Oregon.  

 

Models are quite wet in BC and WA next week.   Per the ECMWF... it would be enough to make it a wet December up here.  

 

Of course it looks good for BC and WA.

[Deweydog]

It’s still intraseasonal today. Lol.

This forum has single-handedly legitimized it this fall winter.

[wx_statman]

Back when they had a young wishcaster named Mark Nelsen. And who can forget the horrific model fail of December 96'. 

 

I'll never forgive Randy Querin for hamming up Christmas '96 snow chances. Broke my heart.

[Deweydog]

I'll never forgive Randy Querin for hamming up Christmas '96 snow chances. Broke my heart.

He was always kind of a d*ck.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ensembles have some wetter members in the long range. An improvement.

 

DC2FDEF9-CCCB-4643-87D3-B71631E453B7.png

 

Let's go with the one ensemble member showing a massive arctic outbreak right after Christmas...

[TT-SEA]

Palmer 3ESE had 7.26" in November against an 11.66" average.

 

The rain must have been pretty localized.

 

 

8.72 inches in Snoqualmie/North Bend... compared to average of 8.49 inches for November at Snoqualmie Falls.     

 

The actual Snoqualmie Falls station is missing days... as usual.   

 

And I suspect Palmer was much more shadowed than on this side of Tiger Mountain with that early November pattern.   It was raining here for several days while Jim's area has almost nothing. 

 

 

 

   

[BLI snowman]

I don’t understand this logic. Would you actually prefer a washout of a winter to blocky meridional flow and crisp continental airmasses?

 

Mild rain is just a continuation of autumn. Winter is supposed to be cold, crisp, and continental.

 

The problem is that we aren't getting that, either.

 

These types of Nino winter patterns here are just the absolute worst. We just stay stuck in weather purgatory with warm temps, splitting fronts, and nothing remotely dynamic. It's what we saw a good chunk of in February 2016, January 2015, January 2003, 1991-92 and so on. Getting this pattern in December this year. January will be hard pressed to be worse.

[wx_statman]

It’s still intraseasonal today. Lol.

 

Sad but true. Even today, the most cutting edge stuff coming out of Scripps/JPL for AR prediction in California switches to probabilistic area-based guidance for week 3. 

[Front Ranger]

Palmer 3ESE had 7.26" in November against an 11.66" average.

 

The rain must have been pretty localized.

 

Tim lives in an eternal, extremely localized downpour. 

 

[wx_statman]

He was always kind of a d*ck.

 

More of a handy man than a weather man. Handy Randy....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He was always kind of a d*ck.

 

Even as a kid I kind of thought he seemed a bit like a ****. We always watched KOIN though, not sure why. I liked Jim Little, but would flip and try and catch all the weathercasts. I loved the Boz and Jack Capel on the weekends. My Dad would watch the 10 o'clock news on KPTV and tell me what David Apple said, but my parents enforced a pretty early bedtime. I think Lars Larson was their 10pm anchor back then.

 

It's amazing how many of those guys from the early-mid 90s are still on the air. Mark, Zaffino, Selesky, and Wrongda Shelby have all been on the air 20+ years.

[Front Ranger]

Might need for to wait for that ENSO sign to flip...

 

I think ENSO is being given too much credit here. It's weak, disorganized and there have been many active late fall/early winters with +ENSO anyway.

 

This is clearly global warming.

[TT-SEA]

Tim lives in an eternal, extremely localized downpour. 

 

7a565e2c208934cd8dd1b30e0f8c4edd.jpg

 

Not true at all.  

 

This is BS Jared... and you know it.

 

We had 10 dry days in November... and 5 dry days in December so far.    No complaints from me.   It has been quite decent overall.

 

And I am saying it has been almost perfectly normal.   Not unusually wet.    It has been very normal in this area.   But you are mocking me like I am making up data.   '

 

Be fair.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Once again the FV3 delivers with a bizarre, but semi-interesting pattern near the end. 

 

[BLI snowman]

8.72 inches in Snoqualmie/North Bend... compared to average of 8.49 inches for November at Snoqualmie Falls.     

 

The actual Snoqualmie Falls station is missing days... as usual.   

 

And I suspect Palmer was much more shadowed than on this side of Tiger Mountain with that early November pattern.   It was raining here for several days while Jim's area has almost nothing. 

   

 

 

Looks like Snoqualmie Falls had 6.24" against an 8.58" average and is only missing two days, the 6th and 7th. And I don't think they had 2.5"+ over those two days. There wasn't much going on. Seems like a dry November there.

[Jesse]

Not true at all.  

 

This is BS Jared... and you know it.

 

We had 10 dry days in November... and 5 dry days in December so far.    No complaints from me.   It has been quite decent overall.

 

And I am saying it has been almost perfectly normal.   Not unusually wet.    It has been very normal.   But you are mocking me like I am making up data.   '

 

Be fair.

 

He must just absolutely hate you. That's all it could be.

[Front Ranger]

Not true at all.  

 

This is BS Jared... and you know it.

 

We had 10 dry days in November... and 5 dry days in December so far.    No complaints from me.   It has been quite decent overall.

 

And I am saying it has been almost perfectly normal.   Not unusually wet.    It has been very normal in this area.   But you are mocking me like I am making up data.   '

 

Be fair.

 

I'm sorry, but I can't find a single map that supports your "perfectly normal late fall/early winter" opinion. I am being fair.

 

[TT-SEA]

He must just absolutely hate you. That's all it could be.

 

No... but he is essentially mocking me when I am reporting real data.

 

I said November was almost perfectly normal.   And December is almost half way to the normal monthly rain.   Those are facts.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The problem is that we aren't getting that, either.

 

These types of Nino winter patterns here are just the absolute worst. We just stay stuck in weather purgatory with warm temps, splitting fronts, and nothing remotely dynamic. It's what we saw a good chunk of in February 2016, January 2015, January 2003, 1991-92 and so on. Getting this pattern in December this year. January will be hard pressed to be worse.

 

Just looking at December 1991 and I could see this month ending up with those kind of monthly averages/totals, perhaps a bit warmer this time around, but we could always pull off a few chilly inversion days later this month. 

 

And as dull as December 91' was, January was a lot worse. 20 50+ highs at SLE including the last 11 days of the month. Yikes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sorry, but I can't find a single map that supports your "perfectly normal late fall/early winter" opinion. I am being fair.

 

60dPNormWA.png

 

Been sopping wet in Port Angeles. Tim's house moves to wherever the wet weather is. 

 

But we know its getting bad when we start falling back into this crap again.

[Phil]

We really need rain. If it isn’t going to be cold and snowy bring on a raging jetstream and frequent storms. I’ve had enough stagnant, dry ridging to last me a lifetime this year.

Point taken, but why waste peak winter climo on indian summer crapola? Can’t that wait until Feb/Mar?

 

I’d hate that. We’re finally seeing a stagnant pattern here, and I’m enjoying it a lot more than I thought I would.

[Front Ranger]

Once again the FV3 delivers with a bizarre, but semi-interesting pattern near the end. 

 

 

 

378...mixing it up! 

[Jesse]

No... but he is essentially mocking me when I am reporting real data.

 

I said November was almost perfectly normal. And December is almost half way to the normal monthly rain. Those are facts.

You aren’t going to find an ounce of sympathy from me. It’s been regionally dry and you’ve been pretending it hasn’t all year.

[TT-SEA]

I'm sorry, but I can't find a single map that supports your "perfectly normal late fall/early winter" opinion. I am being fair.

 

60dPNormWA.png

 

You are posting maps for mid month periods.

 

These are the facts for my area:   

 

October was wetter than normal.

 

November was perfectly normal.

 

December is on track to be normal.  

 

 

 

All I said was that if I was controlling the weather... then I making it just about perfectly normal for my area.    Because it has been almost perfectly normal.  

[BLI snowman]

Just looking at December 1991 and I could see this month ending up with those kind of monthly averages/totals, perhaps a bit warmer this time around, but we could always pull off a few chilly inversion days later this month. 

 

And as dull as December 91' was, January was a lot worse. 20 50+ highs at SLE including the last 11 days of the month. Yikes.

 

Yeah, at least February 1992 finally just went full spring. That would have been the last time we pushed 70+ here locally in February. If the winter is going to suck that bad, I'd probably rather just get the super balmy temps.

[Jesse]

Point taken, but why waste peak winter climo on indian summer crapola? Can’t that wait until Feb/Mar?

 

I’d hate that. We’re finally seeing a stagnant pattern here, and I’m enjoying it a lot more than I thought I would.

Are you talking about the ridging? In that case I agree wholeheartedly.

[Bryant]

Not true at all.

 

This is BS Jared... and you know it.

 

We had 10 dry days in November... and 5 dry days in December so far. No complaints from me. It has been quite decent overall.

 

And I am saying it has been almost perfectly normal. Not unusually wet. It has been very normal in this area. But you are mocking me like I am making up data. '

 

Be fair.

Touchy

[TT-SEA]

Been sopping wet in Port Angeles. Tim's house moves to wherever the wet weather is. 

 

But we know its getting bad when we start falling back into this crap again.

 

I don't question or mock your weather stats.   Total BS.

 

I am not complaining.   I am not saying its been really wet.    I am reporting actual stats for my area.   

[Phil]

Sad but true. Even today, the most cutting edge stuff coming out of Scripps/JPL for AR prediction in California switches to probabilistic area-based guidance for week 3.

Speaking of which, how did your presentation on wildfire climo go today? Sorry I wasn’t able to catch it.

[TT-SEA]

Touchy

 

Yeah... it really sucks when people imply that I am bold-face lying about my stats even after I provide back-up support for actual weather observations in my area.   I never lie about weather stats.     It is what it is.  

[Front Ranger]

He must just absolutely hate you. That's all it could be.

 

I despise anyone who disagrees with me and/or disturbs my preferred emotional state.

 

It's the only way to get through life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, at least February 1992 finally just went full spring. That would have been the last time we pushed 70+ here locally in February. If the winter is going to suck that bad, I'd probably rather just get the super balmy temps.

 

Yeah I told my wife the other day when we were sitting outside on the porch staring into the darkness at 4:45pm that if we aren't going to have any snow it might as well be spring. 

[Jesse]

Yeah, at least February 1992 finally just went full spring. That would have been the last time we pushed 70+ here locally in February. If the winter is going to suck that bad, I'd probably rather just get the super balmy temps.

I could have sworn either February 2015 or 2016 got close too, more recently. Those were also very warm Febs, back to back.

[Front Ranger]

You are posting maps for mid month periods.

 

These are the facts for my area:   

 

October was wetter than normal.

 

November was perfectly normal.

 

December is on track to be normal.  

 

 

All I said was that if I was controlling the weather... then I making it just about perfectly normal for my area.    Because it has been almost perfectly normal.  

 

Would you prefer water year to date? My guess is no, because it still doesn't show what you are claiming. 

 

This is literally the entire period you just referenced.

 

[Bryant]

In other news, I lost power just now for 5 seconds

[Phil]

The problem is that we aren't getting that, either.

 

These types of Nino winter patterns here are just the absolute worst. We just stay stuck in weather purgatory with warm temps, splitting fronts, and nothing remotely dynamic. It's what we saw a good chunk of in February 2016, January 2015, January 2003, 1991-92 and so on. Getting this pattern in December this year. January will be hard pressed to be worse.

I think I get what you’re saying. Stuck in no mans land between a cool, crisp inversion pattern and a dynamic, stormy pattern. I’d probably hate that, too.

 

At least there will be Alaskan blocking in January. Much less of this pseudo-zonal GOA vortex crap.

[Jesse]

So how about that Euro?

[Front Ranger]

I don't question or mock your weather stats.   Total BS.

 

I am not complaining.   I am not saying its been really wet.    I am reporting actual stats for my area.   

 

You've used Palmer before. Why not use that historically reliable data now?