December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Haha! Snow in the mountains would be a good thing. Nice spoof!

 

Not really. Creates a lot of problems for people.

[MossMan]

If it's not gonna be cold enough to snow we may as well get some super windy weather. I wouldn't mind seeing as it's been ages since the last true windstorm in the greater region.

Enough with the wind talk...gawd!!

[TT-SEA]

This feels like a surprisingly optimistic outlook given the series of systems coming in over the next several days.

 

 

 

Ahhh... the devil is in the details.    There are constantly wet patterns and then there are patterns that technically have rain each day but with lots of dry periods.   

 

Lets look at Saturday for an example.   

 

Here is the new 00Z GFS:

 

 

 

And here was the 12Z ECMWF:

 

 

 

 

 

That is enough evidence at this point to say it will be a dry day... with offshore flow in place... and likely some filtered sun.

 

But there might be lingering showers from the Friday system before dawn that day... and maybe some light rain late in the evening... so it will probably go down in the books as a "rainy day".    But it will actually be quite nice. 

 

 

 

Here is Monday per the 00Z GFS,   Not as much offshore flow but likely will be dry during the day.

 

[Phil]

Doesn't help when you grow up on the windward side of the Cascade Range. Snow is kinda blah up there.

That the best you can do? Snore.

[Deweydog]

Not really. Creates a lot of problems for people.

Weather IS hell.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

God i hope we have a dry weekend lord knows we need a break. NOT...

[Requiem]

Looks like no wind event for Portland, unfortunately (for me). At least not on Friday, and not on Monday either. Oh well, maybe another time /:

[Jesse]

God i hope we have a dry weekend lord knows we need a break. NOT...

Active weather is hell.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunny calm days are pure hell in the winter, save that garbage for August.

[Deweydog]

Sunny calm days are pure hell in the winter, save that garbage for August.

2-2-50 was just what a much more racially-intolerant PNW deserved.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny calm days are pure hell in the winter, save that garbage for August.

 

 

And yet we average a significant number of dry days and even some sunshine in every winter month.   Even in dark December.  

 

Climo dictates it.     

 

[Requiem]

How did we go from possible windstorm and decent rain to occasional rain followed by dry conditions? I thought the jet stream was supposed to be powerful?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Active weather is hell.

Sunny day's shown on weather maps should be banned. Sun is not weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How did we go from possible windstorm and decent rain to occasional rain followed by dry conditions? I thought the jet stream was supposed to be powerful?

Tim is MORE powerful, he made adjustments to the storm.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny day's shown on weather maps should be banned. Sun is not weather.

 

You need to move.   Maybe Baffin Island?   

[Requiem]

Tim is MORE powerful, he made adjustments to the storm.

 

Why can't he make adjustments to the storms that frolic elsewhere? 

[TT-SEA]

Why can't he make adjustments to the storms that frolic elsewhere? 

 

This is a common fallacy on here.   I don't actually control the weather.  

 

And its been a fairly normal fall and early winter up here.    So if I am controlling the weather...  I am making it just about perfectly normal for my area.  

 

-November was almost EXACTLY normal in the Snoqualmie Valley.    We had 8.72 inches of rain in November with precip on 20 days... normal is 8.49 inches of precip with rain on 20 days.

 

-December is following normal so far as well.    So far there has been 3.54 inches of rain... normal for the month is 8.61 inches.     There has been 5 dry days so far this month and we average 10 dry days in December.     And its pouring rain right now!  

[wx_statman]

12-98 was the first time I remember the MRF coming through with something in the long range. Picked things up 9-10 days and only had one significant hiccup along the way.

 

I remember this as well. It was very exciting. Ultimately, the MRF got lucky with an exceptionally robust blocking signal in an otherwise zonal-dominated winter. 

[Deweydog]

I remember this as well. It was very exciting. Ultimately, the MRF got lucky with an exceptionally robust blocking signal in an otherwise zonal-dominated winter.

My how things have changed. It was essentially the only model to track at the time and typically it was pure, unadulterated noise beyond 5-6 days or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember this as well. It was very exciting. Ultimately, the MRF got lucky with an exceptionally robust blocking signal in an otherwise zonal-dominated winter. 

 

I would kill for a zonal winter at this point. 00z GFS showing about 1.5" of rain at SLE the next 17 days. Unreal.

[Front Ranger]

This is a common fallacy on here.   I don't actually control the weather.  

 

And its been a fairly normal fall and early winter up here.    So if I am controlling the weather...  I am making it just about perfectly normal for my area.  

 

-November was almost EXACTLY normal in the Snoqualmie Valley.    We had 8.72 inches of rain in November with precip on 20 days... normal is 8.49 inches of precip with rain on 20 days.

 

-December is following normal so far as well.    So far there has been 3.54 inches of rain... normal for the month is 8.61 inches.     There has been 5 dry days so far this month and we average 10 dry days in December.     And its pouring rain right now!  

 

Somehow, your location continues to be an odd aberration.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Another snowy night at Snoqualmie Pass... although the camera does seem to make it seem like its snowing harder than reality.   The road is white so its coming down nicely.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least December 2002 was wet...

[Jesse]

I would kill for a zonal winter at this point. 00z GFS showing about 1.5" of rain at SLE the next 17 days. Unreal.

00z ensembles have some wetter members in the long range. An improvement.

 

[wx_statman]

My how things have changed. It was essentially the only model to track at the time and typically it was pure, unadulterated noise beyond 5-6 days or so.

 

I remember how excited I was when KOIN switched to a 6-day forecast (first in town!) to match the KOIN-6 branding. Everyone else was still in the dark ages with their 5-days...

[Requiem]

At least December 2002 was wet...

 

There was a very decent windstorm in December 2002 as well. Something which we can only dream of (at least those of us S of Olympia) in the next 20 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've had 2.66" so far this month. GFS shows about that much through the end of the run. That would leave me less than 50% of normal.

[Phil]

I would kill for a zonal winter at this point. 00z GFS showing about 1.5" of rain at SLE the next 17 days. Unreal.

I don’t understand this logic. Would you actually prefer a washout of a winter to blocky meridional flow and crisp continental airmasses?

 

Mild rain is just a continuation of autumn. Winter is supposed to be cold, crisp, and continental.

[Deweydog]

I remember how excited I was when KOIN switched to a 6-day forecast (first in town!) to match the KOIN-6 branding. Everyone else was still in the dark ages with their 5-days...

That was a big hurdle. 384 hours was essentially inter-seasonal back then.

[TT-SEA]

Somehow, your location continues to be an odd aberration.

 

30dPNormWA.png

 

Are you really posting a map between mid-month periods?   Capturing two dry periods in there and only one of the wet periods?   Nice job buddy!  

 

Are you going to tell me that it was not almost perfectly normal in the Snoqualmie Valley in the month of November?    Really?   Because it was about as close to normal for the month of Novermber as it gets around here.    

 

And December is right on track as well.   

 

But the first week of December looked like crippling drought on those maps.   It did not rain here!!!     It has now.   

[wx_statman]

I would kill for a zonal winter at this point. 00z GFS showing about 1.5" of rain at SLE the next 17 days. Unreal.

 

Might need for to wait for that ENSO sign to flip...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember how excited I was when KOIN switched to a 6-day forecast (first in town!) to match the KOIN-6 branding. Everyone else was still in the dark ages with their 5-days...

 

Back when they had a young wishcaster named Mark Nelsen. And who can forget the horrific model fail of December 96'. 

[BLI snowman]

Somehow, your location continues to be an odd aberration.

 

30dPNormWA.png

 

MonthPNormWA.png

 

 

Palmer 3ESE had 7.26" in November against an 11.66" average.

 

The rain must have been pretty localized.

[Jesse]

I don’t understand this logic. Would you actually prefer a washout of a winter to blocky meridional flow and crisp continental airmasses?

 

Mild rain is just a continuation of autumn, IMO. Winter is supposed to be cold, crisp, and continental.

We really need rain. If it isn’t going to be cold and snowy bring on a raging jetstream and frequent storms. I’ve had enough stagnant, dry ridging to last me a lifetime this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t understand this logic. Would you actually prefer a washout of a winter to blocky meridional flow and crisp continental airmasses?

 

Mild rain is just a continuation of autumn. Winter is supposed to be cold, crisp, and continental.

 

Yeah I would like crisp continental airmasses too...But that isn't happening either. 

[Phil]

That was a big hurdle. 384 hours was essentially inter-seasonal back then.

It’s still intraseasonal today. Lol.

[TT-SEA]

I've had 2.66" so far this month. GFS shows about that much through the end of the run. That would leave me less than 50% of normal.

 

It does not look good for Oregon.  

 

Models are quite wet in BC and WA next week.   Per the ECMWF... it would be enough to make it a wet December up here.  

[Front Ranger]

At least December 2002 was wet...

 

In the good old days, even the -fest winters were more enjoyable.

[Requiem]

That was a big hurdle. 384 hours was essentially inter-seasonal back then.

 

We need the rain. I would love a repeat of October 1996, where 4 inches of rain fell in PDX.

[Jesse]

This is a common fallacy on here. I don't actually control the weather.

 

I think the fact that this has been proposed so often the last several years says more about the last several years than anything.