BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I could have sworn either February 2015 or 2016 got close too, more recently. Those were also very warm Febs, back to back. The warmest temps in the metro area were 66-67 in 2016 and 64-65 in 2015. The last time that PDX even topped 65 in February was 2/23/1995. Shortly after our blizzard friend departed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Are you talking about the ridging? In that case I agree wholeheartedly.Yeah, if it’s warm ridging. Anything that involves subtropical air and elevated humidity bothers me. That said, I’d love to experience a cold, foggy inversion pattern like you guys get, but sadly the sun is too strong for that here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Would you prefer water year to date? My guess is no, because it still doesn't show what you are claiming. This is literally the entire period you just referenced. WaterPNormWA.png The WRCC maps definitely lean towards drier than reality. Likely because they are built on data from the WRCC stations and many of those end up with missing days. That is just the reality. Actual measured rainfall in the Snoqualmie Valley is very close to the long-term average since September. Even with missing days... the Snoqualmie Falls WRCC station had over 16 inches of rain from September - November period and normal is 17 inches. And the reality is probably 17 inches compared to normal of 17 inches. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 The WRCC maps definitely lean towards drier than reality. Likely because they are built on data from the WRCC stations and many of those end up with missing days. That is just the reality. Because actual measured rainfall in the Snoqualmie Valley is very close to the long-term average since September. Even with missing days... the Snoqualmie Falls station had over 16 inches of rain from September - November period and normal is 17 inches. Interesting theory. Strangely enough, almost all long term reliable stations with historical records for that same location that we can compare actual averages to seem to support the maps pretty well. And over the last 4 years or so, I don't recall this theory coming up much at all, at least when the maps showed most the area wetter than normal (quite common!). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 And the whole point was... if I am controlling the weather than I would not make so Oregon has all the dry weather and its normal up here. I would flip it around and make it much drier than normal here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like Snoqualmie Falls had 6.24" against an 8.58" average and is only missing two days, the 6th and 7th. And I don't think they had 2.5"+ over those two days. There wasn't much going on. Seems like a dry November there. These are not the facts Tim is talking about. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I think I get what you’re saying. Stuck in no mans land between a cool, crisp inversion pattern and a dynamic, stormy pattern. I’d probably hate that, too. At least there will be Alaskan blocking in January. Much less of this pseudo-zonal GOA vortex crap. That's El Nino in a nutshell here. The GOA vortex and/or Rex Block patterns in those years will spell some of the dullest weather imaginable around here. Inversions are quite preferable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 #triggered, again..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 So how about that Euro? Looking... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Interesting theory. Strangely enough, almost all long term reliable stations with historical records for that same location that we can compare actual averages to seem to support the maps pretty well. And over the last 4 years or so, I don't recall this theory coming up much at all, at least when the maps showed most the area wetter than normal (quite common!). Wetter than normal would not be exaggerated by missing days. If the maps show wetter than normal... than you can assume it was really wetter than normal when considering there are likely missing days. And for my area... its been basically normal. Use just the Snoqualmie Falls WRCC station if you want. I posted daily data from another station with NO missing days... and its been almost perfectly normal based on that since September. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 At this point I would also kill for a January 2013 redux. The most sub-freezing highs in January at SLE since 1979. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 At this point I would also kill for a January 2013 redux.That’s a legitimate possibility this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 You've used Palmer before. Why not use that historically reliable data now? This station, which Tim used to reference as the closest reliable long term station to his location, has been below normal for precip every single month since April. Running about 18" below normal for the year. Missing no data. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like Seattle could get a good blow on Friday, gusts 45-60 perhaps. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looking... Next frame is better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 These are not the facts Tim is talking about.I did not know you could identify the missing days. That is helpful. There was about .50 on those days at the other station. So add that to November and you come up with roughly 16.70 inches for September - November. Normal is 17.13 inches. So even using WRCC... basically normal since September. Its been basically normal here this fall and early winter. Normal in terms of total precipitation and normal in terms of number of dry days. Tell me where I am wrong when talking about my area? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 This station, which Tim used to reference as the closest reliable long term station to his location, has been below normal for precip every single month since April. Running about 18" below normal for the year.Knock me over with a feather. When the pendulum inevitably swings the other way, he’s gonna nope the f**k outta there like a bolt of lightning. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I did not know you could identify the missing days. That is helpful. There was about .50 on those days at the other station. So add that to November and you come up with roughly 16.70 inches for September - November. Normal is 17.13 inches. So even using WRCC... basically normal since September. Its been basically normal here this fall and early winter. Normal in terms of total precipitation and normal in terms of number of dry days. Tell me where I am wrong when talking about my area? You just moved the goalposts from Oct-present to Sep-Nov. And why have you decided to totally ignore Palmer all of the sudden? C'mon, Tim...this is why people don't take you seriously. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Getting a good old fashion Victoria rainstorm this evening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Next frame is better. Yeah definitely could be worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I’m getting deja vu of my deja vu all over again. This same convo literally replays itself over and over again on here. Like a skipping record. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Getting a good old fashion Victoria rainstorm this evening. Enjoy, looks like you might be getting one on Friday too. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 You just moved the goalposts from Oct-present to Sep-Nov. And why have you decided to totally ignore Palmer all of the sudden? C'mon, Tim...this is why people don't take you seriously. OMG. I said fall and early winter! Come on Jared. I am not trying to pull anything here. I said its been around normal. IT HAS. And I have no idea about Palmer but there is a mountain between me and Palmer... and I can see Snoqualmie from my front window. Maybe Palmer is shadowed more in NW flow which has been more persistent than usual this year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just let the dogs out one last time before bed, still windy and a little light rain as well. Power is still on. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Euro definitely taking a different path than the GFS beyond day 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I’m getting deja vu of my deja vu all over again. This same convo literally replays itself over and over again on here. Like a skipping record. No doubt! I made a joke implying that if I was actually controlling the weather then I am not doing a good job because it been essentially normal in my area this fall. But no... Jared has to tell me how wrong I am. I am not wrong. Snoqualmie Falls for Sept - November: Actual - 16.70 inchesNormal - 17.13 inches December is at 3.54 inches... normal is 8.61 inches. Pretty close to normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Enjoy, looks like you might be getting one on Friday too. Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going. I'm craving a windstorm right now. Been a while since one's hit Portland. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Total snow through day 9.5 (day 10 is not out yet). This is a nice improvement over the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going. Definitely more wind than previous runs on Friday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Yeah definitely could be worse. It's better than the GFS, at least. Could easily see things turning dramatically better in the models within 24-48 hours. Trust them even less than normal right now. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this It's laughable at this point. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Euro still looks wetter than the GFS too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this It's laughable at this point. Yep! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Euro still looks wetter than the GFS too. Definitely. Total precip through day 9.5 (day 10 total map has not updated but its dry on days 9 and 10 anyways): Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 OMG. I said fall and early winter! Come on Jared. I am not trying to pull anything here. I said its been around normal. IT HAS. And I have no idea about Palmer but there is a mountain between me and Palmer... and I can see Snoqualmie from my front window. Maybe Palmer is shadowed more in NW flow which has been more persistent than usual this year. All I know is, you literally referenced Oct-present at first, then switched to Sep-Nov. If that's not changing goal posts, I don't know what is. And you used to have no issues using Palmer as a long term comparison for your area, mountain or no. I don't think you're a bad guy at all, Tim, and you know I stick up for you when I think you're being treated unfairly. But in cases like this, you're clearly cherry-picking data to support a narrative. We all do it to a certain extent, but you've really taken it to a new level here. If you were consistent, like using the same long term station for comparisons or using the same maps (not just until they are inconvenient to the narrative) or the same time periods, then I would cut you more slack. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 If the ECMWF verifies... it would get most of BC and WA to normal or above normal precip for December. I am really just happy to see the snowfall totals increasing again after several runs going the wrong direction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this It's laughable at this point. He deserves to be treated fairly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Can someone post a EURO gust map of Tuesday? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I'm done with this climate. 35" of rain since September plus nearly 10" in the next 9 days forecast to fall. You can only take so much rain in this moss-infested place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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