December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

EPS is out through day 11 and its ugly.

It looks fine to me. Retrograding wave cycle. Better than the progressive one we have now.

 

The ensemble spread jusr makes it look worse than it actually is.

[TT-SEA]

It looks fine to me. Retrograding wave cycle. Better than the progressive one we have now.

 

The ensemble spread jusr makes it look worse than it actually is.

 

Out through day 12 now... looks pretty ugly for us.   Maybe not for you.  

 

[TT-SEA]

EPS finished... here is 10-15 day period.    Definitely better for the middle of the country.  

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EPS finished... here is 10-15 day period. Definitely better for the middle of the country.

 

 

That’s nice. Would be nice to experience significant cold anomalies here like everyone else east of the Cascades but that will likely not happen here again.

[ShawniganLake]

.92” of rain measured at midnight. Puts our monthly total just over 3”. Pretty average for December to this point.

[ShawniganLake]

EPS gets to a good place by the end of the run but until we see that timing move up it’s kind of meaningless

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS gets to a good place by the end of the run but until we see that timing move up it’s kind of meaningless

 

True. On the other hand we have seen many instances of the models jumping the gun by a week or so on a major pattern change. Overall though the total rudderlessness of the pattern the past month or so is very disconcerting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll take the night shift for the pivotal 06z GFS

 

Going to be a breezy day here on the Southern Plains. 

 

National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066-132200-
/O.CON.KTSA.WI.Y.0011.181213T1500Z-181214T1200Z/
Osage-Washington OK-Pawnee-Tulsa-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Bartlesville, Pawnee, Tulsa,
Sapulpa, Okemah, and Okmulgee
328 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...Late this morning through early Friday morning.

* WINDS...North at 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 45 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes... Just read on the Fairbanks NWS Twitter feed that this is the 2nd latest in the season Fairbanks has gone without hitting -10F. The latest...December 12/20/2002.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Out to hour 198, some slight improvement over the 00z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z GFS is about a million times better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing mind blowing but better than anything we've seen so far. 

 

[Blizzard777]

Just want to calm the waters a bit.

 

But this is a CLASSIC forum WiNd StOrM!!!

[Blizzard777]

Happy 1 year Anniversary to my weather machine

[Blizzard777]

43*

Rain storm total .29 so far

Wind....denied at this point

Friday’s storm motivating me to get some gas for the generator just in case

[Farmboy]

That’s nice. Would be nice to experience significant cold anomalies here like everyone else east of the Cascades but that will likely not happen here again.

Ever?

[Deweydog]

So did you guys finally fix Tim?

[Jesse]

The 06z GFS is about a million times better.

To bad the ensembles are a hot French dipped turd sandwich.

[TT-SEA]

So did you guys finally fix Tim?

 

 

Good luck with that... my wife gave up on that idea years ago! 

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Pass hung onto the cold and it snowed all night... looks gorgeous up there this morning.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Tim. Good news for your ski trip. Whistler has received nearly 3ft in the last 48hrs.

 

https://timecam.tv/view_cam_embed.aspx?C=FD51BDGNB065

[TT-SEA]

Jared and Justin...

 

The other station very close to me is Cedar Lake. I am about half way between the Snoqualmie Falls Station (440 feet) and Cedar Lake (1,560 feet) in both distance and elevation. I don't normally use Cedar Lake because that station gets more precip and snow than my area because its a little higher.

 

Cedar Lake was renamed to Chester Morse Lake. I am right in the middle of those two stations.

 

 

 

 

Snoqualmie Falls annual average - 59.14

Cedar Lake annual average - 101.13

 

So being in the middle in terms of elevation and distance... I assume my area gets roughly 80-85 inches annually. Palmer matches my elevation so it might be a good guide for snow... but its on the other side of a mountain.

 

Look at the Cedar Falls data for 2018... with no missing data.

 

 

 

It can't get any more normal than that.

 

Total for September - November

Actual - 28.83

Normal - 28.78

 

It was .05 above normal this fall. And December is tracking towards normal as well.

 

 

Andrew - the Cedar Lake station is at the same elevation as Silver Falls. How does it compare?

[jcmcgaffey]

Snoqualmie Pass hung onto the cold and it snowed all night... looks gorgeous up there this morning.

 

 Was just going to post this.  Looks amazing up there.

[Jesse]

Jared and Justin...

 

The other station very close to me is Cedar Lake. I am about half way between the Snoqualmie Falls Station (440 feet) and Cedar Lake (1,560 feet) in both distance and elevation. I don't normally use Cedar because that station gets more precip and snow than my area because its a little higher.

 

Cedar Lake was renamed to Chester Morse Lake. I am right in the middle of those two stations.

 

 

 

 

Snoqualmie Falls annual average - 59.14

Cedar Lake annual average - 101.13

 

So being in the middle in terms of elevation and distance... I assume my area gets roughly 80-85 inches annually. Palmer matches my elevation so it might be a good guide for snow... but its on the other side of a mountain.

 

Look at the Cedar Falls data for 2018... with no missing data.

 

 

 

I can't get any more normal than that.

 

Total for September - November

 

Actual - 28.83

Normal - 27.78

 

It was .05 above normal this fall. And December is tracking towards normal as well.

 

 

Andrew - the Cedar Lake station is at the same elevation as Silver Falls. How does it compare?

Are you fu*king kidding me?

[TT-SEA]

Tim. Good news for your ski trip. Whistler has received nearly 3ft in the last 48hrs.

 

https://timecam.tv/view_cam_embed.aspx?C=FD51BDGNB065

 

 

Awesome! 

[TT-SEA]

Are you fu*king kidding me?

 

I love this kind of data analysis.   Love it!  

 

I know for a fact that its been normal in this area since September.    Both stations on either side of me prove it.   Almost perfectly normal.  

[Jesse]

I love this kind of data analysis. Love it!

 

I know for a fact that its been normal in this area since September. Both stations on either side of me prove it. Almost perfectly normal.

We know that everyone has decided to give you a get away with murder forever card, so nothing will probably come of this. But Fred specifically said he didn’t want to see any more posts relating to this argument in the main thread. You are just planting the seeds for another long, drawn out debate with Flatiron and perhaps Justin, here. Maybe consider moving the post elsewhere.

[TT-SEA]

We know that everyone has decided to give you a get away with murder forever card, so nothing will probably come of this. But Fred specifically said he didn’t want to see any more posts relating to this argument in the main thread. You are just planing the seeds for another long, drawn out debate with Flatiron and perhaps Justin, here. Maybe consider moving the post elsewhere.

 

 

Yeah... we should create a new thread for this kind of kind of discussion.   I get sort of excited about it.   I love this analysis.   And we also spend lots of time talking about specific  details at random stations for events 50 and 100 years ago.   At least I am talking about my immediate area in the current season.   

[jcmcgaffey]

Are you fu*king kidding me?

 

What's wrong with that post?  Even if the intention was to prove a point.  The post was pretty informative of his area and I actually found as an interesting read on it.  I also am biased because I have spent alot of time in that area in the past climbing and hiking .  So I could see it not as interesting to those well outside of that area.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a long winter.

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a long winter.

 

 

Already 14.4% of the way through winter.   

[TT-SEA]

I going to create a new thread and move my post.   We need a dedicated thread anyways so the posts don't get lost since we keep coming back to this discussion.   

[Deweydog]

Already 14.4% of the way through winter.

Are you f*cking kidding me? Emoticon!

[TT-SEA]

New thread created... now someone needs to pin it.   

[Phil]

Out through day 12 now... looks pretty ugly for us. Maybe not for you.

 

You’re a deciever. That’s a clear retrogression signal.

 

[Jesse]

Pretty morning sky.

 

[TT-SEA]

You’re a deciever. That’s a clear retrogression signal.

 

 

 

Yes... I had evil intent to deceive!    

 

It was out through day 12 at the time and it did not look good.    I did not run a loop... nor do I know how to even run a loop.

 

AND... I posted after that when it finished running and said that it had improved when I could see the progression better by clicking on each day.   

 

If you are wanting to track my desire right now... a deep western trough would be greatly preferred.    Anything else is sort of depressing right now because I want great ski conditions.  

[Jesse]

This one’s even better:

 

[TT-SEA]

Coastal radar is sputtering this morning... so can't quite get a clear picture of what is coming.   It randomly updates and then goes out again.

 

But it appears that we are on the southern edge of the warm front at this time... raining pretty hard right now but looks like it might lift northward this afternoon.

[Phil]