December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Dome Buster]

I thought long range predictions were pointless?

Thats just a gut feeling because I want it to happen. I have nothing to back it up, just wishcasting. Definitely not a forecast. Try again Phil.

[Phil]

Warm nov/dec anomolies. Congruent analogs. Frigid Ak/yukon temps. Lack of any real blocking yet. This nino isnt acting like a typical nino. 41 years in the area and this nino is not acting like a typical. Throw the model data out and lets use our experience.

So ENSO/long range predictability is a fools errand...unless your name is Dome Buster.

 

Oh, the irony.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Consistency. I like it.

At that point the "trends", the "trends" were there Phil. The "trends". Throw in my yearning for it to happen and you get statements like that. Im not on here referencing mid to long range maps as if they were gospel. When I peruse the maps I rarely will watch past 120 hrs because I know it is an act of futility in most cases.

[HighlandExperience]

Thanks Phil.

The free EURO snowfall map on weather.us shows 1-2 inches of snow over King County.

 

Is that realistic this week?

[Guest Dome Buster]

The free EURO snowfall map on weather.us shows 1-2 inches of snow over King County.

 

Is that realistic this week?

Low resolution.

[Phil]

Frigid Ak/yukon temps. Lack of any real blocking yet. This nino isnt acting like a typical nino.

Still not in the sweet spot. But blocky.

 

More consistency!

[Guest Dome Buster]

So ENSO/long range predictability is a fools errand...unless your name is Dome Buster.

 

Oh, the irony.

Has it or has it not proven to be? You change your forecast as often as most people change their underwear. Because it is always changing.

[Phil]

I explained earlier. And Front Ranger just confirmed my thoughts based on analogs.

 

Impossible.

[HighlandExperience]

Low resolution.

The euro snowfall map was dead on last Christmas with the snowfall here.

[Guest Dome Buster]

More consistency!

Referencing 2 separate maps first of all. And I was interpreting them, not saying how accurate they were. Keep trying.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Impossible.

Thoughts. Not predictions. Keep going.

[Phil]

[High Desert Mat!]

Classic!!

[Front Ranger]

So ENSO/long range predictability is a fools errand...unless your name is Dome Buster.

 

Oh, the irony.

Just remember...his opinion means nothing to you.

[HighlandExperience]

Better than nothing

[Phil]

All garbage IMO. But its 8 days. May as well throw a dart.

But analogs confirm a January 2017 redux since this isn’t a typical niño.

[Jbolin]

Better than nothing

Yea ok, sure 

[Jbolin]

But analogs confirm a January 2017 redux since this isn’t a typical niño.

MJO, PDO, QBO, NAO, Tim Tebow

 

Is it going to ******* snow?

[Guest Dome Buster]

But analogs confirm a January 2017 redux since this isn’t a typical niño.

Quit putting words in my mouth.

[High Desert Mat!]

Just started spitting snow in Redmond. Temp at 33. Should get a little tonight before it gets cold overnight.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Just started spitting snow in Redmond. Temp at 33. Should get a little tonight before it gets cold overnight.

Brushing your hair again Mat?

[Phil]

Lets just hold off and see how the next month unfolds. Even in this boring and el nino influenced december we still have a chance of some low elevation snowflakes in the air the next few days, without any real cold air to draw from. Stay optimistic. The guys in here for the most part are a glass half empty group.

I thought it wasn’t a typical niño?

[Phil]

Not after 5-7 days. It really means nothing. And you know it. Predicting accurately is what I care about. All the Phil posts are cryptic and dont mean anything. Outside of that 5-7 timeframe is a waste of breath.

 

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ANALOGS?!?!

[Guest Dome Buster]

I thought it wasn’t a typical niño?

It isnt.

[Phil]

I dont because you cannot with any reasonable accuracy. It is why the smart meteorologists dont make long range forecasts.

But the analogs confirm a January 2017 redux, right?

[Guest Dome Buster]

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ANALOGS?!?!

What about them? They are a topic of conversation at best. Not accurate but fun to look at.

[Phil]

Just remember...his opinion means nothing to you.

I like to have fun.

[Guest Dome Buster]

But the analogs confirm a January 2017 redux, right?

Never said that. Quit manipulating sentences to fit your narrative. I said I was feeling it. Much different than confirming something. Keep trying....

[Guest Dome Buster]

I like to have fun.

Oh ya. I bet you're a blast at parties.

[Phil]

Billions of dollars are wasted every year on worthless endeavors. How much money have we spent trying to domesticate barbarians in other countries, most who hide in caves, in our history? Sometimes money is spent with good intentions but that doesnt mean it was spent wisely. War on drugs is another example. Sure I can come up with more.

I agree with you to some extent re: war on drugs.

 

Everything else in this post is just bigoted nonsense.

[Requiem]

Is this a recurring thing with you two? Live and let live, I say. Predictions harm no one as long as you're wary that they are just that- predictions.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I agree with you to some extent re: war on drugs.

 

Everything else in this post is just bigoted nonsense.

Bigoted? Nope. Facts are facts. I will leave it at that. Thought you were smarter than that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yikes these last 2 pages are a long-range forecasting debate bloat.

 

Thinking good things for folks up north so we can put the kibosh on a regional repeat of 91-92 (still on the table for some places tho).

[Guest Dome Buster]

Yikes these last 2 pages are a long-range forecasting debate bloat.

Ya I know. Considering you could just say rain every day from 8 days out and on and be more accurate than someone looking at the maps.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Is this a recurring thing with you two? Live and let live, I say. Predictions harm no one as long as you're wary that they are just that- predictions.

I am trying to but its hard with the guy. All that knowledge and time invested in forecasting and he is still highly inaccurate. I would be moody as well.

[Front Ranger]

Yikes these last 2 pages are a long-range forecasting debate bloat.

 

Thinking good things for folks up north so we can put the kibosh on a regional repeat of 91-92 (still on the table for some places tho).

 

At least this winter has already featured a big windstorm for the region (not the WHOLE region - that's super rare). Including BC especially, it was pretty major. Don't think 1991-92 had managed that.

 

Doesn't do anything for snow lovers, but at least from an interesting weather perspective it has that so far.

[Front Ranger]

I am trying to but its hard with the guy. All that knowledge and time invested in forecasting and he is still highly inaccurate. I would be moody as well.

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

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Yes. I will stop now. We just need something interesting to talk about.

[Requiem]

At least this winter has already featured a big windstorm for the region (not the WHOLE region - that's super rare). Including BC especially, it was pretty major. Don't think 1991-92 had managed that.

 

Doesn't do anything for snow lovers, but at least from an interesting weather perspective it has that so far.

 

Not for wind lovers in Portland, unless you count the 40-50 gusts we had in an hour's time period on the 14th. I'll still take that though- better than any wind event we had last year.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the snow line just above Tims place.