December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Somebody must have smacked the GFS with a stupid stick a few days ago.  It just refuses to look anything like the other models and cold snap is only a few days off now.  It doesn't appear the cold will anything to write home about, but it will almost certainly be better than what the GFS has been advertising.

 

The difference between the GFS and ECMWF MJO forecasts is utterly absurd.  Not sure what is going on with this.

[MossMan]

18-19

And 19-20.

[snow_wizard]

That’s nice. We will be enjoying a 2010s-style winter heatwave

 

This alone doesn't mean anything of the sort.  

[Requiem]

I’ve also noticed that every single winter before this (at least for PDX, don’t know about the Sound) has had a relatively big event of some sort by this time.

 

2017- White Christmas

2016- Ice storm and traffic-pocalypse

2015- Flooding and Pineapple Express

2014- major windstorm on the 11th

2013- cold-a** weather in early December

2012- almost-major windstorm on the 16th

2011- No clue, close to this one

2010- numerous flirtations with lowland snow

2009- traffic-pocalypse and surprise snow

2008- you know.

2007- Great Coastal Gale, flooding, snow

2006- Hanukkah Eve

 

Can’t think of a single super-noteworthy event this year for PDX. Ditto to Seattle, except for the windstorm last week.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... here is the 12Z EPS.    Sorry its late.. its was a busy day!  

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

[Requiem]

FWIW... here is the 12Z EPS. Sorry its late.. its was a busy day!

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

Ouch. This one hurts a bit more than usual. Santa’s gift to the NW, I suppose?

[Andrew.]

Down to 38.5 here, wonder how close I may come to seeing some flakes mix in tomorrow morning with the onset of precip.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We'll probably be under a ridge through the first week of January but the 12z GEFS shows some retrogression as the ridge amplifies up into Alaska as we head into the 2nd week of January. I still like our chances for something big in January, especially with the Polar Vortex self destructing.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384.gif

 

The 18z GEFS and upgraded FV3 GFS both show some good retrogression during the 2nd week of January. This seems to be our best path towards an Arctic Blast.

 

[Bryant]

Lets just hold off and see how the next month unfolds. Even in this boring and el nino influenced december we still have a chance of some low elevation snowflakes in the air the next few days, without any real cold air to draw from. Stay optimistic. The guys in here for the most part are a glass half empty group.

Part of weather is predicting, so telling people to "hold off" makes no sense

[El_Nina]

FWIW... here is the 12Z EPS. Sorry its late.. its was a busy day!

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

I like how the ridging manages to keep moving up in time

[Guest Dome Buster]

Part of weather is predicting, so telling people to "hold off" makes no sense

Not after 5-7 days. It really means nothing. And you know it. Predicting accurately is what I care about. All the Phil posts are cryptic and dont mean anything. Outside of that 5-7 timeframe is a waste of breath.

[snow_wizard]

I’ve also noticed that every single winter before this (at least for PDX, don’t know about the Sound) has had a relatively big event of some sort by this time.

 

2017- White Christmas

2016- Ice storm and traffic-pocalypse

2015- Flooding and Pineapple Express

2014- major windstorm on the 11th

2013- cold-a** weather in early December

2012- almost-major windstorm on the 16th

2011- No clue, close to this one

2010- numerous flirtations with lowland snow

2009- traffic-pocalypse and surprise snow

2008- you know.

2007- Great Coastal Gale, flooding, snow

2006- Hanukkah Eve

 

Can’t think of a single super-noteworthy event this year for PDX. Ditto to Seattle, except for the windstorm last week.

 

Historically this is pretty meaningless.  We have had good to great winters with nothing noteworthy in Nov or Dec.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Made it to 47 today so at least kept it below 50 somehow.

 

Down to 37 now.  Should be a nice chilly night.

[Phil]

Somebody must have smacked the GFS with a stupid stick a few days ago. It just refuses to look anything like the other models and cold snap is only a few days off now. It doesn't appear the cold will anything to write home about, but it will almost certainly be better than what the GFS has been advertising.

 

The difference between the GFS and ECMWF MJO forecasts is utterly absurd. Not sure what is going on with this.

The GFS is probably too strong w/ the wave, but the ECMWF has a notorious weak bias when initializing the MJO from the E-IO and Maritime continent.

 

My guess is a middle ground solution.

[Phil]

Not after 5-7 days. It really means nothing. And you know it. Predicting accurately is what I care about. All the Phil posts are cryptic and dont mean anything. Outside of that 5-7 timeframe is a waste of breath.

Cryptic? Haha.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Cryptic? Haha.

To a normal man and meteorologists who predict weather. Yes.

[umadbro]

I try to read Phil's posts. They're all the same. A bunch of acronyms and windows we should be looking at that never materialize.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z is alot different at hr 108. Colder is closer.

[Deweydog]

I try to read Phil's posts. They're all the same. A bunch of acronyms and windows we should be looking at that never materialize.

Maybe you guys are just kinda dumb?

 

Merry Christmas!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Caving towards the Euro?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

High drama tonight?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Ridge has trended west on tge gfs last 4 runs for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Caving towards the Euro?

 

 

Much closer to the ECMWF... but it slides east very quickly.    And that is how the ECMWF has been trending.   So it seems they are finally coming together on agreement but its a non-event here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Should still be decent snow for whistler and my place.

[TT-SEA]

Should still be decent snow for whistler and my place.

Looks like maybe rain on Saturday at Whistler (in the village)... but then turns to snow that night into Sunday morning.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Maybe you guys are just kinda dumb?

 

Merry Christmas!!!

Kinda dumb? Nope.

 

See, a smart person throws acronyms and whimsical thoughts out the window when talking to the masses. You have to adapt to your audience. I could easily speak like Phil but I choose to understand who I am speaking to. He doesnt impress me one bit with any of his posts. Not a one.

[umadbro]

Maybe you guys are just kinda dumb?

 

Merry Christmas!!!

I don't have a problem admitting I'm dumb.

 

I'm ok with it.

[TT-SEA]

My 5 year old son got surprised with Seahawks tickets to this Sunday's game vs. the Cardinals. He is obsessed with the Hawks in just about every way - he's memorized all the numbers/players, stats, touchdown dances, etc.

 

Needless to say, he's beyond excited.

 

That is so awesome!

[ShawniganLake]

[van city]

So you’re dumbing it down for our benefit? Much appreciated dude. You do a very good job of it.

 

The mood is great here once again, its Christmas night after all.

 

Merry Christmas to all!

[Timmy]

Should still be decent snow for whistler and my place.

Thank goodness, it never snows at your place or whistler, it takes a real special pattern for that!

[TT-SEA]

Thank goodness, it never snows at your place or whistler, it takes a real special pattern for that!

 

 

We will take what we can get!  

[Bryant]

Not after 5-7 days. It really means nothing. And you know it. Predicting accurately is what I care about. All the Phil posts are cryptic and dont mean anything. Outside of that 5-7 timeframe is a waste of breath.

"Predicting accurately" is quite the oxymoron statement, no? We predict based off the info we have, and to want absolute accuracy in weather is asking for the models to be perfect. If you use other tools however, you can nail down timeframes of opportunity, which is what Phil does. Seems as though you're not able to comprehend this however

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Do you agree with Phil that our window of opportunity will be closing after the 10th until late winter? I have no scientific evidence to back this up but I feel like our opportunity will be opening up starting around the 10th through the end of January. Who knows though. With the PV getting blasted apart like Phil mentioned I’m hoping that might do something to really shake things up around here. ‍♂

 

I am torn on this now because I thought we were going to have some cold and snow by now.   Even up here... I have had basically nothing.    And now we are just a few days from January and there is absolutely nothing in sight.    So if we get anything this winter it will likely be after January 10th.

 

I just can't imagine a low solar winter wouldn't have some cold and snow at some point.

[Bryant]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thank goodness, it never snows at your place or whistler, it takes a real special pattern for that!

This year has sucked even over there.

[Phil]

To a normal man and meteorologists who predict weather. Yes.

Because you would know all about that.

[Phil]

Kinda dumb? Nope.

 

See, a smart person throws acronyms and whimsical thoughts out the window when talking to the masses. You have to adapt to your audience. I could easily speak like Phil but I choose to understand who I am speaking to.

He doesnt impress me one bit with any of his posts. Not a one.

#EastWindDensity

[Timmy Supercell]

The last date I had more than 3" of snow fall within 24 hours was 02/19/2017. Thought I'd point that out 

 

3-5" snows should be pretty commonplace here and I'm going almost 2 years without one of those.