December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

The quiet of a snowfall always amazes me, and is part of the beauty of it. I also remember in 1985 after a big snow in Bellingham just before Thanksgiving, we walked downtown to buy something, and the city was so quiet, since cars were not driving around. Loved that quiet.

The 1985 event I had just turned 9yrs old but I still vividly remember being at the lake house (we were living there while my parents were building our house 10min away) and with the snow falling and a foot of snow on the ground it was completely silent except for the train whistle in the distance was clear as could be...that was when I truly realized how different sound behaves in snow. Very magical.

[Jesse]

Yeah, you're right. It's the broadcasters that always bother me, they always are like "It's a beautiful day in Victoria, thankfully looks like spring has come early"...meanwhile it's the 3rd week of January!

Then you have clowns like Cliff Mass saying they are sad that the blob is gone and can only take solace in the fact that it may just be temporary and will come back some day.

 

Too many people willing a Central Valley climate up this way these days if you ask me.

[Kayla]

Wonder why the local climate and past weather page on Portland NWS has been down so long.

Government shutdown. Lots of NOAA data is down right now.

[Kayla]

FWIW the 12z ECMWF trended slightly further west with things in the medium range. Cold air definitely gets closer to you guys.

[Jesse]

Government shutdown. Lots of NOAA data is down right now.

That makes sense. MAGA.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW the 12z ECMWF trended slightly further west with things in the medium range. Cold air definitely gets closer to you guys.

 

 

I was just going mention that it looks a little more amplified by Sunday and Monday.

[Requiem]

That makes sense. MAGA.

 

Make America Groan Again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the record there is nothing down on the Portland NWS page. 

[Jesse]

For the record there is nothing down on the Portland NWS page.

When I click on the “climate and past weather” tab it says server not found. The links from Mark’s weather site are messed up too.

 

Nothingburger.

[Front Ranger]

The 12z GFS/Euro are probably in the best agreement through day 8 of any model suite in at least a week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I click on the “climate and past weather” tab it says server not found. The links from Mark’s weather site are messed up too.

 

Nothingburger.

 

That's weird. Maybe it is your browser settings. I am not having the same issues. 

 

In case you were wondering PDX is running a +3.4 temp departure on the month and -0.50" rainfall.

 

SLE is +3.2 and -0.11"

[BLI snowman]

For the record there is nothing down on the Portland NWS page. 

 

Works for me too.

 

Trump working his magic.

[Jesse]

That's weird. Maybe it is your browser settings. I am not having the same issues.

 

In case you were wondering PDX is running a +3.4 temp departure on the month and -0.50" rainfall.

 

SLE is +3.2 and -0.11"

Thanks.

[Jesse]

Hard to tell where the Euro is going in the LR. But at least it seems to be moving away from a perma-ridge.

[Phil]

I dont because you cannot with any reasonable accuracy. It is why the smart meteorologists dont make long range forecasts. What part of that is hard to understand? Guys like Phil get mad when I say this because it basically throws most of his diatribe out the window. He is threatened, hence he gets angry. His accuracy on long range is just what the statistics show. Very, very, very, very low. Did I mention it is very low? And a waste of time really.

Plenty of “smart meteorologists” make subseasonal and seasonal scale predictions. There is literally an entire field of study dedicated to it.

 

And no, I don’t feel angry or “threatened” by you. Your opinions are worthless..they mean nothing to me.

[MossMan]

Dry, breezy, and 37 here.

[ShawniganLake]

Plenty of “smart meteorologists” make subseasonal and seasonal scale predictions. There is literally an entire field of study dedicated to it.

 

And no, I don’t feel angry or “threatened” by you. Your opinions are worthless..they mean nothing to me.

Only the stupid ones choose to work in that field.

[Phil]

Only the stupid ones choose to work in that field.

Haha, apparently so. They definitely bust more often.

[Phil]

Best GFS run yet in the stratosphere.

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles are certainly improved. Although before that they really couldn’t get much worse.

[Jesse]

Best GFS run yet in the stratosphere.

 

Domebuster will now kindly explain in layman’s terms how the blue means cold for us.

[Phil]

The CMC/ensembles have jumped on the super MJO wave bandwagon, albeit in a compromised fashion.

 

I actually think the EPS might be wrong here..historically it tends to over-dampen the MJO when it’s initialized over the Maritime continent, so I think it’s missing the structural coherence that will exist in reality.

 

GEFS, GEPS, bias-corrected GEFS.

 

 

Compared to the ECMWF/EPS. Lol.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post the Euro snow maps please.

[MossMan]

Domebuster will now kindly explain in layman’s terms how the blue means cold for us.

Blue good. Red bad.

[Phil]

And all of the models are probably underestimating the amplitude of the MJO wave in phase-8. It is likely to maintain a relatively high amplitude as it propagates into the WHEM during the middle of January.

[Phil]

Can someone post the Euro snow maps please.

[Requiem]

I dont because you cannot with any reasonable accuracy. It is why the smart meteorologists dont make long range forecasts. What part of that is hard to understand? Guys like Phil get mad when I say this because it basically throws most of his diatribe out the window. He is threatened, hence he gets angry. His accuracy on long range is just what the statistics show. Very, very, very, very low. Did I mention it is very low? And a waste of time really.

 

It's just a prediction, I see no harm in it. It is fun to see things slowly unravel as time goes on, and one can look back on the season and see what aspects were well-predicted and what aspects were not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Can someone post the Euro snow maps please.

I think PDX north is going to get some action in early Jan.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thanks Phil.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Do people realize that energy companies, investment/wall street people, retailers, etc. pay BIG bucks for long range forecasts?  They may not be looking for specifics, but definitely care about the seasons as a whole, whether they are cooler/warmer or wetter/dryer.  A few decades ago I worked for a major manufacturer and they subscribed to a long range forecasting company, since they consumed a LOT of energy and needed to know where things were going.  I remembe this company nailed about a month in advance the possibilily of arctic air for the PNW.

[Jesse]

I think PDX north is going to get some action in early Jan.

I too now believe that but this feeling could change if the next map is different.

[Jesse]

Blue good. Red bad.

Especially true for the stratosphere.

[Phil]

And if long range predictions are pointless, whats the point in researching ENSO? We spend billions of dollars on climate research/modeling..I guess it’s all just a waste?

 

Why does the CPC even exist? Why do we discuss “analog years” on this forum? Heck, why do we even talk about the winter? It’s all just random chaos anyway, right?

[Front Ranger]

Do people realize that energy companies, investment/wall street people, retailers, etc. pay BIG bucks for long range forecasts?  They may not be looking for specifics, but definitely care about the seasons as a whole, whether they are cooler/warmer or wetter/dryer.  A few decades ago I worked for a major manufacturer and they subscribed to a long range forecasting company, since they consumed a LOT of energy and needed to know where things were going.  I remembe this company nailed about a month in advance the possibilily of arctic air for the PNW.

 

This. LR forecasting is not a futile endeavor, you just have to understand it's not going to nail specifics (and any forecaster who tries to will end up looking bad - unless they get very lucky).

 

An educated guess is still a guess, but there is plenty of evidence that good LR forecasts are better than a coin flip, which is what the energy, Wall St, etc folks are looking for. An edge.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Do people realize that energy companies, investment/wall street people, retailers, etc. pay BIG bucks for long range forecasts? They may not be looking for specifics, but definitely care about the seasons as a whole, whether they are cooler/warmer or wetter/dryer. A few decades ago I worked for a major manufacturer and they subscribed to a long range forecasting company, since they consumed a LOT of energy and needed to know where things were going. I remembe this company nailed about a month in advance the possibilily of arctic air for the PNW.

 

I am aware. We do a lot of work for NW Natural and have access to all of there mid and long range weather projections. It just kills me that they dont just forecast trends, but they have the ego to think they can forecast precip totals and precip type 25-30 days away.

 

Forecasting trends with a broad brush is more than acceptable IMO. But to think we can tell what will happen with more than a 5-10% accuracy that far out, is completely wrong. And to think so is pure lunacy.

[Phil]

Some reason I am feeling a Jan 10,2017 redux.

I thought long range predictions were pointless?

[Guest Dome Buster]

And if long range predictions are pointless, whats the point in researching ENSO? We spend billions of dollars on climate research/modeling..I guess it’s all just a waste?

 

Why does the CPC even exist? Why do we discuss “analog years” on this forum? Heck, why do we even talk about the winter? It’s all just random chaos anyway, right?

Billions of dollars are wasted every year on worthless endeavors. How much money have we spent trying to domesticate barbarians in other countries, most who hide in caves, in our history? Sometimes money is spent with good intentions but that doesnt mean it was spent wisely. War on drugs is another example. Sure I can come up with more.

[Front Ranger]

I'm curious to see the LR EPS...

[Phil]

This winter is on par with the worst ever so far. Just up to this point.

January is setting up nice. All signs are there.

Consistency. I like it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I am aware. We do a lot of work for NW Natural and have access to all of there mid and long range weather projections. It just kills me that they dont just forecast trends, but they have the ego to think they can forecast precip totals and precip type 25-30 days away.

 

Forecasting trends with a broad brush is more than acceptable IMO. But to think we can tell what will happen with more than a 5-10% accuracy that far out, is completely wrong. And to think so is pure lunacy.

Yeah, getting into specifics for that long range is pointless.  Nailing down precip totals 4-5 days in advance is also difficult.    But broad brush seasonal forecasts makes people a lot of money, not just the forecasters themselves.