December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

We do EVERY gift on Christmas Day. It’s anti-climactic though. All the girls get a dolly that laughs and cries, one that opens and shut its eyes. All the boys get a hammer and lots of tacks, a whistle and a ball and a whip that cracks.

[Front Ranger]

CMC is still way different, much colder than the GFS.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

If I was Canadian, I'd save one present for Boxing Day.

[Timmy]

The gem is colder than its 12z run for Monday. Decent backdoor action.

[Deweydog]

Canadian.

[Front Ranger]

Between the GFS and CMC, there's literally a 25-30F difference in temps for Montana days 6-7. 

[Esquimalt]

The cold on the CMC is shoved east pretty quick though.

[TT-SEA]

ICON looks amplified too... have not checked how cold.

[Front Ranger]

The cold on the CMC is shoved east pretty quick though.

 

Not as fast as the 12z, though. About the same as previous runs.

 

Main takeaway from the 0z runs so far is that each model is sticking more or less to previous solutions.

[Gradient Keeper]

Could the GFS and GEM be any further apart? Starting at Day 4 to 4 1/2 too. Crazy. It's nice that we can tell how well the run will be by just Day 3-5 now. Soon we will be locking into that final trend.

 

 

Merry Christmas everyone

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hope everybody has a safe and Merry Christmas.  What's everybody drinking/smoking tonight?

[Front Ranger]

Hope everybody has a safe and Merry Christmas.  What's everybody drinking/smoking tonight?

 

Everclear and crack. You?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

FV3 is also nothing like the GFS. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hope everybody has a safe and Merry Christmas. What's everybody drinking/smoking tonight?

Mike's Hard Lemonade. I like my alcoholic beverages flavored.

[Timmy]

FV3 is also nothing like the GFS.

 

fv3p_z500a_namer_27.png

Wow that is encouraging. It’s a world war of models and a civil war in the US

[umadbro]

Mike's Hard Lemonade. I like my alcoholic beverages flavored.

Agreed. More specifically the Jameson flavor.

[MossMan]

We have always opened family presents on Christmas Eve... then Christmas morning is for Santa.

This!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Everclear and crack. You?

 

Moonshine and angel dust.

[Front Ranger]

Wow that is encouraging. It’s a world war of models and a civil war in the US

 

Yep. So much for peace on earth.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift tonight indeed with the whole Santa thing.

[ShawniganLake]

Still some 18000 customers without power on Vancouver Island after Thursday’s windstorm. Will likely be several more days for some people. Contractors are arriving from the lower mainland, Alberta and the east coast to assist in restringing power lines and replacing poles and transformers. Sounds like the 600,000 outages could make it the second largest outage in provincial history.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Agreed. More specifically the Jameson flavor.

Mines the Strawberry Lemonade.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's time for King EURO to speak. Will he be dethroned by the GFS, or will he rule over all lands of all weather geeks yet again. No idea. None.

 

[MossMan]

Funny how sometimes a inexpensive gift can steal the show. Bought my nephew some nice stuff but also a slinky. Guess what everyone wants to play with. The slinky!!

My daughter got one as well!

[Deweydog]

I had a Slinky when I was a kid but I straightened it.

 

200 bonus points to the person who can name the movie/actor sans internet assistance.

[Gradient Keeper]

I had a Slinky when I was a kid but I straightened it.

 

200 bonus points to the person who can name the movie/actor sans internet assistance.

Ghostbusters, but can't remember if it's #1 or #2.... hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1 - The most important run of Winter 2018-2019?

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/048/500h_anom.na.png

Interesting so far the ridge offshore a touch stronger and trough over BC digging a bit better and faster with heights suppressing more quickly over WA/OR.

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting so far the ridge offshore a touch stronger and trough over BC digging a bit better and faster with heights suppressing more quickly over WA/OR.

Model comparison

 

Last night's 00z shows this very well

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122400/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I had a Slinky when I was a kid but I straightened it.

 

200 bonus points to the person who can name the movie/actor sans internet assistance.

Toy Story - Slinky Dog

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

00z last night

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122400/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Still some 18000 customers without power on Vancouver Island after Thursday’s windstorm. Will likely be several more days for some people. Contractors are arriving from the lower mainland, Alberta and the east coast to assist in restringing power lines and replacing poles and transformers. Sounds like the 600,000 outages could make it the second largest outage in provincial history.

That’s impressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Toy Story - Slinky Dog

That would be sort of masochistic.

[ShawniganLake]

We’ve lost the JMA.

[Gradient Keeper]

Aleutian ridge not as amplified at Day 4