December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Christmas Eve at the park in North Bend...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hate people that litter. I have a major problem with it. The fine for throwing garbage out car window should be 50k.

 

Oklahoma makes anything around here look tame. They need a bottle bill or something, or maybe a culture change. I think when I move there eventually I'll start a non-profit that works to not only clean up the trash, but change people's perspective on littering. 

[MossMan]

Beautiful day here in Everett. Feels like spring....Great reading about everyone's nurse wives. I moved down here to work as a nurse in the buisiest ER in WA. It has been.... busy

I wouldn’t go to any other ER...Amazing nurses and Doc’s...(and others like my wife so I’m a little bias, but still!)

[Front Ranger]

3rd warmest on record nationally. 

 

Although with the strong Nino, there was decent STJ activity so the places that benefit from that were really snowy (like Denver). This winter hasn't even had that yet.

 

I highly doubt we follow the national blowtorch in Jan/Feb that 1992 saw.

 

This area certainly did better than most the country that season, though December and February were both awful and basically snowless. No impressive cold, except the late October Arctic blast. Prior to that, October 1991 actually produced the warmest October day in Denver history (89 on the 16th!). 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We didn’t even have an early “blast” that affected us west of the Cascades this year so if it ends up being like this til April then this one would top 91-92 as being the worst since I moved to Oregon. Awful.

 

Sad thing is next year might end up being worse.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

So my son hiked to the top of Mt Si with his friends. He is actually in the that little cloud you see on the mountain in the pic I took at the park. No idea how he is attracting the birds. But he is basically looking down on North Bend and the same park from 4,000 feet.

 

[Front Ranger]

Deweydog, what's the date?

[Phil]

Oh man, looking forward to your "I know this doesnt have anything to do with the Pacific Northwest, but look at all of this paste I got. Step away from that ledge Jim, the ice age is due in 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30" posts.

Hey, now you know how I felt when you’d plaster your Philly snow pictures all over the forum while I was getting screwed left, right, north, and south.

 

So yeah, I might risk a ban for an isolated troll post or two. Assuming the screwage actually stops at some point. Haha.

[Phil]

3rd warmest on record nationally.

 

Although with the strong Nino, there was decent STJ activity so the places that benefit from that were really snowy (like Denver). This winter hasn't even had that yet.

The STJ has been on steroids this winter. The wavenumber has just been outrageously high, hence the flat waves/weak lows for the most part.

 

However, this looks to change in a huge way sometime next month.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, a more than decent stream of moisture lasting in the area. Snow is now accumulating this afternoon. I'll be sure to stick around later tonight for a proper 24 hour total snow fall. 

 

 

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/9glva0.jpg

[Esquimalt]

18Z is even worse than the 12Z so far.  Didn't think that was possible.

[Timmy]

18Z is even worse than the 12Z so far. Didn't think that was possible.

Pretty incredible really. I still think a solution closer to the euro and gem will pan out. Something has got to give soon though.

[Phil]

1991/92 would have been a super easy torch forecast.

 

Huge solar maximum, volcanism/CFCs crippling O^3/BDC, +ENSO/+PDO/+AO/+PNA/+EPO/+NAO background state, and waning -QBO/downwelling westerly shear (terrible during high solar).

 

Probably the worst low frequency regime possible.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, a more than decent stream of moisture lasting in the area. Snow is now accumulating this afternoon. I'll be sure to stick around later tonight for a proper 24 hour total snow fall. 

 

 

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/9glva0.jpg

 

KLMT is seriously reporting "heavy rain"??? Pics I posted were just after 2pm.

[Phil]

Still too much GOA/Alaska vortex on the 18z.

 

It always takes time to get rid of vortexes, but this sucker is putting up one hell of a fight. Even if it will inevitably lose.

[Phil]

The NATL High is better located this run, but that doesn’t backresonate to affect the West until D10+ anyway.

[Phil]

Looking closer at the stratospheric processes, this event is actually quite unusual in its evolution. The 100-50mb domain shows no extra anomalous heat flux values during the event, while they’re extremely high above 30mb.

 

Which, as some forecasters/researchers have suggested, indicates an internal amplification of modest wave activity by the stratosphere itself (likely via resonant processes) rather than powerful wave driving from the troposphere muscling it up in there.

[Phil]

In other words, the effects from this SSW event will almost solely result from “top down” style forcing (IE: the high latitude blocking will downwell from the upper atmosphere).

 

Which can take 2-4 weeks following the SSW, which just started a few days ago. So..gonna be a longer wait with this one.

[Parksvillewx]

Cloudy here all day. Was hoping for a few breaks. Currently 42.8F

[TT-SEA]

So my son hiked to the top of Mt Si with his friends. He is actually in the that little cloud you see on the mountain in the pic I took at the park. No idea how he is attracting the birds. But he is basically looking down on North Bend and the same park from 4,000 feet.

 

 

 

He said there was nothing in his hands... the birds up there are so conditioned to being fed by hikers that they will land in your hands if you open them up.

[TT-SEA]

Cloudy here all day. Was hoping for a few breaks. Currently 42.8F

 

 

Just across the border... it was totally sunny in Bellingham almost all day.  

[Phil]

The aforementioned downwelling is evident on the majority of modeling. It’s not a rapid process in this case.

 

[Phil]

The 18z GFS jumped on board the wave-2/split train in a huge way. Really nukes the motherf**ker.

 

But again, given the reliance on top-down style dynamics with this event, it might take awhile for the effects to manifest in the troposphere.

 

[Parksvillewx]

Environment Canada just issued a weather Statement for the east side of the island and inland.

 

3:18 PM PST Monday 24 December 2018

Special weather statement in effect for:

 

East Vancouver Island - Courtenay to Campbell River

East Vancouver Island - Duncan to Nanaimo

East Vancouver Island - Nanoose Bay to Fanny Bay

A frontal system over the Pacific will approach Vancouver Island late on Christmas Day and bring rain mixed with snow over parts of Vancouver Island by the evening and continuing through the night into the morning of Boxing Day. Snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm are likely for Inland Vancouver Island around Port Alberni with lower amounts immediately near the water and higher amounts at higher elevations. Areas of East Vancouver Island near the water will mostly receive rain but precipitation will fall as mixed rain and snow further inland and snow may accumulate locally up to 2 cm Tuesday night with additional amounts likely on Boxing Day.

[Jesse]

He said there was nothing in his hands... the birds up there are so conditioned to being fed by hikers that they will land in your hands if you open them up.

They are called camp robbers or gray jays. Unusually friendly and intelligent birds that will land in your hand hoping for a treat in areas where they are commonly fed. Members of the family corvidae with also includes ravens and crows - some of the smartest non-human animals.

[Jesse]

At least the 18z keeps thing wet and active in the LR. Unlike the Quartzite-lite 00z and 06z runs.

[Tyler Mode]

A couple of cell phone pics from today.  Certainly not the epic views of Mt. Si, closer to this system to the south it was mainly overcast, windy and with some upslope fog.  Things have since cleared a little bit.  Patches of snow started around the 1,800' level. 

 

It was certainly nice to get away from the city for a quiet hike though.

[jcmcgaffey]

He said there was nothing in his hands... the birds up there are so conditioned to being fed by hikers that they will land in your hands if you open them up.

. Those are grey jays. Incredibly social and for some reason a lot of them in the issaquah alps including tiger mountain and rattlesnake ridge at some spots. They will sit on your should if you have food and will stay on your shoulder when you hike back down. That’s pretty cool though.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty epic views there too!

[Andrew.]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

They are called camp robbers or gray jays. Unusually friendly and intelligent birds that will land in your hand hoping for a treat in areas where they are commonly fed. Members of the family corvidae with also includes ravens and crows - some of the smartest non-human animals.

And found for the most part in the high country. There very smart for sure.

[Prairiedog]

They are called camp robbers or gray jays. Unusually friendly and intelligent birds that will land in your hand hoping for a treat in areas where they are commonly fed. Members of the family corvidae with also includes ravens and crows - some of the smartest non-human animals.

There's a long history of these particular corvids with Native Americans aka whiskey jacks.  They learned a long time ago that if they followed hunting parties around there would be food for them.  Somehow that behavior became ingrained in their DNA and today they're still comfortable being around humans.  Why other cousins (other jays, crows, ravens, and magpies don't do this, I don't know.  They're all darn smart birds!) We take HS students in an outdoor club snowshoeing down to Trillium Lake every winter and many of the kids have never ever experienced "wild" birds landing on them taking food from them.  It's an awesome experience for many. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

She is really growing on everyone.

[Requiem]

Does the W. Valley have a cool weather equivalent to the convergence zone of Puget Sound?

[Timmy]

Does the W. Valley have a cool weather equivalent to the convergence zone of Puget Sound?

no, but we have the gorge which can be much more vital and widespread to snow events.

[Requiem]

no, but we have the gorge which can be much more vital and widespread to snow events.

That's completely true. Without the Gorge I doubt events like 1/10/17 and 12/20/08 would have been so widespread and intense.

[Guest Dome Buster]

That's completely true. Without the Gorge I doubt events like 1/10/17 and 12/20/08 would have been so widespread and intense.

They wouldnt have existed period.

[TT-SEA]

Cascades reflecting the setting sun...

 

[BLI snowman]

The STJ has been on steroids this winter. The wavenumber has just been outrageously high, hence the flat waves/weak lows for the most part.

 

However, this looks to change in a huge way sometime next month.

Yeah, the Pacific storm train has been shut down with it though. The SW has been dry, so the areas reliant on Pacific lows are running behind on snow. Different story for the SE, where it's managed to be extremely wet.