January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The way I understand it since the cold is less spread out it can sometimes cluster into geographically smaller but more intense pockets. See Baffin Island.

I’m not sure how that would work since the current warm period, and probably the vast majority of previous Pleistocene warm periods, are notable for the warm anomalies being greatest in the high latitudes, a weaker equator/pole temperature gradient, and a slackening of the eddy fluxes. So in theory, the opposite should be true if the thermal wind/mass transport laws are applied (to oversimplify it a bit).

 

The +TNH/-EPO mode of circulation just cripples the effective warm advection source for NE-Canada, and also happens to allow for some coupling w/ the photochemical PV aloft there over Baffin Island (not there in full at the moment thanks to the SSW). This regime of circulation also happens to be less frequent in healthy El Niño regimes and during cold climate regimes (for a number of complicated reasons) but is very dominant in warm climate regimes, which could be one reason the Greenland ice sheet does not melt fully during interglacials, even the big/warm ones.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SCORE. Some sub 468 thickness in NE Manitoba.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX rocketing to a torchy 47 as of 10am. 

 

42 SLE

 

32 mi casa

 

31 EUG

[Phil]

SCORE. Some sub 468 thickness in NE Manitoba.

 

U still wanna move to Maine? Lol.

 

Actually looks a lot like the PNW in some ways. Just much colder, snowier, and foggier at the coast.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day...

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

564 mb heights over Anchorage. SCORE!

 

[TT-SEA]

564 mb heights over Anchorage. SCORE!

 

 

 

I feel it coming... early February will be the time to score here.

[Phil]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Beautiful day...

 

 

Beautiful day down here as well. Pure sunshine!

[Front Ranger]

I’d be pretty pleased if we saw a sub-freezing low in July.

Think about the flowers.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is back to a more active scenario for later this week and next weekend... like the 12Z run showed yesterday.

 

No lowland snow... but plenty of mountain snow through next Monday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel it coming... early February will be the time to score here.

 

February has become a winter month again the past decade.

[Front Ranger]

KUIL is running +3.2 on the month... a station with no UHI at all.

 

Also at 9.89 inches of rain for the month there so far which is 4.12 inches above normal. Its been really wet on the Olympic Peninsula over the last couple months.

Now THIS is definitely an outlier stat.

 

No one ever talks about that station except you, when they are wet. No one here lives anywhere near there.

[Omegaraptor]

U still wanna move to Maine? Lol.

 

Actually looks a lot like the PNW in some ways. Just much colder, snowier, and foggier at the coast.

 

Fun fact: Portland, OR is warmer than Portland, ME in every single month of the year (even June) despite being north of it. Goes to show how warm Portland is for its latitude.

[TT-SEA]

Now THIS is definitely an outlier stat.

 

No one ever talks about that station except you, when they are wet. No one here lives anywhere near there.

Only mention it because its been so much more anomalously wet on the Olympic Peninsula. Way more than even here recently.

 

And its one of the 6 stations that the SEA NWS reports on daily. I actually looked it up today because I wanted to see the temp departure there in an area with absolutely no UHI. And then noticed how wet it's been there this month.

 

And someone has to report on areas that are wetter than normal!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... showing a pattern that could easily and quickly retrograde into something really cold.   

 

It just feels like we are following the same basic script as last winter.    Cold and snow is coming eventually. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF at day 10... showing a pattern that could easily and quickly retrograde into something really cold.   

 

It just feels like we are following the same basic script as last winter.    Cold and snow is coming eventually. 

 

 

 

Last year had a much colder start (both here and nationally) with a well timed SSW in conjunction with the climo favored Nina forcing at the back end of the season.

 

Apples and oranges to this year, which has easily been a historically bad start to the season and is following the script of a 1925-26 or 1957-58 style winter in spite of being a weaker Nino.

[TT-SEA]

Last year had a major colder start (here and nationally) with a well timed SSW in conjunction with the climo favored Nina forcing at the back end of the season.

 

Apples and oranges to this year, which has easily been a historically bad start to the season.

Well... it seems like we in the same situation now as we were this time last year at this time. I bet we see retrogression and cold/snow in February again.

 

And there was very little snow here last year until February.

[BLI snowman]

Well... it seems like we in the same situation now as we were this time last year at this time. I bet we see retrogression and cold/snow in February again.

 

And there was very little snow here last year until February.

 

The patterns are different and the backgrounds are different.

 

The last time we even saw a February cold spell after a terrible NDJ was 1899-00. Not remotely recent enough to be relevant, IMO.

[Front Ranger]

The patterns are different and the backgrounds are different.

 

The last time we even saw a February cold spell after a terrible NDJ was 1899-00. Not remotely recent enough to be relevant, IMO.

 

On the other hand, it's pretty hard to fit this winter into previous molds as well.

[BLI snowman]

On the other hand, it's pretty hard to fit this winter into previous molds as well.

 

 

I don't know, it seems to be pretty well following the script of our historic baddies to a tee so far. Not sure what's so unique about it. Analogs work both ways you know, can't just trumpet them when things are looking interesting or still in the early stages of the winter.

[Front Ranger]

Drier than normal wet season marches on...and this with several dry days ahead.

 

[TT-SEA]

Drier than normal wet season marches on...and this with several dry days ahead.

 

90dPNormWA.png

 

 

Don't tell that to the people on here in southern BC!  

 

Its been almost perfectly normal around here... and at SEA.    But those red maps are scary looking.  

 

[Jesse]

Incredible how the regional drought just keeps going. All the way up to the Canadian border.

[TT-SEA]

Incredible how the regional drought just keeps going. All the way up to the Canadian border.

Sure.

 

Latest drought monitor update.

 

Jealous?

 

[Jesse]

Great map illustrating my point. I see drought up to the Canadian border.

[TT-SEA]

Great map illustrating my point. I see drought up to the Canadian border.

Not where it matters.

 

And yellow is not drought by the way. But its good for fear if you don't look at the legend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Glad an interesting discussion between BLI and Front Ranger was derailed once again by a pointless argument about drought. 

 

Cold day for the Chargers in Foxborough.

[Requiem]

Not where it matters.

 

And yellow is not drought by the way. But its good for fear mongering if you don't look at the legend!

 

I mean, the people in Eastern Oregon and Washington sure do matter, drought is bad for agriculture. Yes, a lot of it is still "abnormally dry" but if we go into the spring and summer like this it could prove bad. Do remember that even with the very wet 2016-2017 fall/winter we still had a ridiculously dry summer enough to push us into moderate/severe drought category.

[Jesse]

I mean, the people in Eastern Oregon and Washington sure do matter, drought is bad for agriculture. Yes, a lot of it is still "abnormally dry" but if we go into the spring and summer like this it good prove bad. Do remember that even with the very wet 2016-2017 fall/winter we still had a ridiculously dry summer enough to push us into moderate/severe drought category.

Yes, some very good points here.

[Requiem]

Question, was this place around back in 2008? I heard someone mention the excitement of the snowstorms on here back then, and was wondering if there was a way to look back at some sort of archives and live vicariously through the past. Is there any way to do so?

[TT-SEA]

I mean, the people in Eastern Oregon and Washington sure do matter, drought is bad for agriculture. Yes, a lot of it is still "abnormally dry" but if we go into the spring and summer like this it good prove bad. Do remember that even with the very wet 2016-2017 fall/winter we still had a ridiculously dry summer enough to push us into moderate/severe drought category.

It's not a drought over there for much of eastern WA and their water comes from other sources... local precip is not important because it's not enough to support agriculture on its own normally.

[Jesse]

I don't know, it seems to be pretty well following the script of our historic baddies to a tee so far. Not sure what's so unique about it. Analogs work both ways you know, can't just trumpet them when things are looking interesting or still in the early stages of the winter.

Yeah, any proclamation about an early February window is mere pandering at this point. Basically no climo precedent to back up such a prediction at this stage.

[Jesse]

Question, was this place around back in 2008? I heard someone mention the excitement of the snowstorms on here back then, and was wondering if there was a way to look back at some sort of archives and live vicariously through the past. Is there any way to do so?

Fred put together some nice archives from the old forum. I think the link is somewhere on the front page.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, any proclamation about an early February window is mere pandering at this point. Basically no climo precedent to back up such a prediction at this stage.

BS.

 

This upcoming pattern is ripe for retrogression. And early February is a classic time to score here... and ENSO is close to neutral now. Its coming and I will remind you of this in 3 weeks.

[Deweydog]

Something backdoor isn’t out of the question.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Euro trend toward a more active pattern in the 6-10 day range. Much like the GFS.

[Jesse]

Something backdoor isn’t out of the question.

It never is.

[Requiem]

It's not a drought over there for much of eastern WA and their water comes from other sources... local precip is not important because it's not enough to support agriculture on its own normally.

 

I guess. I have no authority to speak on this further, as I'm hardly familiar with agricultural practices, but I know drought is bad for other purposes too. With the relative wetting W. Washington's been getting, the fire season definitely could be a concern as well.