January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

Ok, is there any modern climatological precedent for that this late in the season? You could try to argue the end of 1959-60, but that was a consistently chilly season for the West and a good chunk of the blocking favored the West in late February and very early March.

 

Analogs analogs, every year is different. Cheer up kiddo! 

[Front Ranger]

Ok, is there any modern climatological precedent for that this late in the season? You could try to argue the end of 1959-60, but that was a consistently chilly season for the West and a good chunk of the blocking favored the West in late February and very early March.

 

1958-59 blowtorched for all of Dec/Jan except for a quick Arctic outbreak in early January, but then later managed some cold/snow in February. Also a +ENSO winter that was definitely not consistently chilly for the West in the first half.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One of my earliest memories as a kid of getting snow. Some parts of PDX got over a foot of snow. Classic retrogression signal.

 

 

That one even dropped 3" here. Would be fun.

[BLI snowman]

Analogs analogs, every year is different. Cheer up kiddo! 

 

Like I say, one can't merely tout climo when they're trying to score likes. The ugly side of it is just as meaningful. Just the way it goes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Like I say, one can't merely tout climo when they're trying to score likes. The ugly side of it is just as meaningful. Just the way it goes.

 

I'm reading that you are saying it is extremely unlikely, I agree. Anything is possible, and so I keep paying attention to the models, but the chances are pretty low. 

 

Also I think some are saying discount climo because this winter did not have the early season cold snap as 91-92 or 02-03. You are saying, follow dud winter climo. This one reminds me more of 04-05.

[BLI snowman]

1958-59 blowtorched for all of Dec/Jan except for a quick Arctic outbreak in early January, but then later managed some cold/snow in February. Also a +ENSO winter that was definitely not consistently chilly for the West in the first half.

 

Sorry but that's not a great example. We didn't really see blocking overwhelmingly favor the East in February 1959 and didn't really see any widespread arctic air that month here anyways. And that winter obviously had had way more troughing and cold here up to this point.

[Front Ranger]

Sorry but that's not a great example. We didn't really see blocking overwhelmingly favor the East in February 1959 and didn't really see any widespread arctic air that month here anyways. And that winter obviously had had way more troughing and cold here up to this point.

 

Well, you're adding qualifiers now.

 

But no, I would not say that 1958-59 had way more troughing and cold for the PNW up to this point. Other than the one Arctic event, it was basically a complete torch through the end of January.

[Front Ranger]

December 1958 had 14 50+ days at OLM.

 

December 2018 had 8 such days.

[BLI snowman]

I'm reading that you are saying it is extremely unlikely, I agree. Anything is possible, and so I keep paying attention to the models, but the chances are pretty low. 

 

Also I think some are saying discount climo because this winter did not have the early season cold snap as 91-92 or 02-03. You are saying, follow dud winter climo. This one reminds me more of 04-05.

 

The back half of our winter climo (Jan 15 onwards) seems to often to be the easiest to predict. Usually very dependent on the ENSO state and often seems to be easily swayed by the tendencies of the season beforehand. Just the way things work here. Our late winters just don't seem to ever see anything dramatic without the right ENSO forcing or a repeating seasonal upper level tendency.

[BLI snowman]

Well, you're adding qualifiers now.

 

But no, I would not say that 1958-59 had way more troughing and cold for the PNW up to this point. Other than the one Arctic event, it was basically a complete torch through the end of January.

 

No, the qualifiers were a late season blocking pattern that favored the East and also delivered a meaningful event (better than February 2003's magnitude) to our region.

 

1958-59 doesn't fit the bill on either account, and it also is a poor match for this winter locally since it delivered cold/snowy patterns to the region early on with some measure of frequency. November 1958 was a regionally cold month, December 1958 had a major snow/ice event from Mt. Vernon north, and January 1959 was a full scale mid-winter airmass on a level that we have not recently matched.

[Kayla]

Like I say, one can't merely tout climo when they're trying to score likes. The ugly side of it is just as meaningful. Just the way it goes.

 

I get you. Arctic air is always unlikely in the PNW but stranger things have happened. I just think you're relying on analogs too much. Though, I've never been a big fan of analogs.

[Phil]

December 1958 had 14 50+ days at OLM.

 

December 2018 had 8 such days.

But the pattern going forward doesn’t look much like the pattern during Jan/Feb/Mar 1959, either.

 

That was a big -NAO. This is -EPO/Hudson Bay vortex sitting above a STJ. Not sure that’s the best analog going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day...

 

[TT-SEA]

Eastern Washington agriculture depends on irrigation, not rain, so droughts don't matter as much.   That is why dams are built, btw.   And for many parts, the difference between a drought and normal precip is one really rainy day.  Moses Lake, for example, averages less than 8 inches of rain per year.

 

Where I live in the East slopes is comparatively wetter, but there is still irrigation for the pear orchards, since the summer is so dry here even during "wet" summers. 

 

Good points.   

[Front Ranger]

No, the qualifiers were a late season blocking pattern that favored the East and also delivered a meaningful event (better than February 2003's magnitude) to our region.

 

1958-59 doesn't fit the bill on either account, and it also is a poor match for this winter locally since it delivered cold/snowy patterns to the region early on with some measure of frequency. November 1958 was a regionally cold month, December 1958 had a major snow/ice event from Mt. Vernon north, and January 1959 was a full scale mid-winter airmass on a level that we have not recently matched.

 

You added the qualifier of "widespread Arctic air" when talking about Feb 1959.

 

And your second paragraph is reverting to local events...not what we were talking about, which was the large-scale tendencies. Overall, the tendency the first half of 1958-59 was for western torching. Thus the stats for OLM I cited.

[Front Ranger]

I get you. Arctic air is always unlikely in the PNW but stranger things have happened. I just think you're relying on analogs too much. Though, I've never been a big fan of analogs.

 

Analogs can be useful, but using them in reference to localized events is not very useful.

[Front Ranger]

But the pattern going forward doesn’t look much like the pattern during Jan/Feb/Mar 1959, either.

 

That was a big -NAO. This is -EPO/Hudson Bay vortex sitting above a STJ. Not sure that’s the best analog going forward.

 

Didn't say it was. He just asked for an example where something better than Feb 2003 happened in a +ENSO winter that wasn't predominantly cool/troughy for the West to this point.

 

What do you think are the best large-scale analogs going forward? 

[Esquimalt]

You added the qualifier of "widespread Arctic air" when talking about Feb 1959.

 

And your second paragraph is reverting to local events...not what we were talking about, which was the large-scale tendencies. Overall, the tendency the first half of 1958-59 was for western torching. Thus the stats for OLM I cited.

We got lots of snowy weather in '58-'59 here, not limited to February. But I understand that that was local.

[Kayla]

Analogs can be useful, but using them in reference to localized events is not very useful.

 

Agreed.

[Phil]

Didn't say it was. He just asked for an example where something better than Feb 2003 happened in a +ENSO winter that wasn't predominantly cool/troughy for the West to this point.

 

What do you think are the best large-scale analogs going forward?

Gov’t shutdown has me running on memory, but I still like the mid-Jan to mid-Feb periods in 1978 and 1988 as the best matches, with a few sprinkles of 1987, 1995, 1997, 2007, and 2015 thrown in.

[BLI snowman]

I get you. Arctic air is always unlikely in the PNW but stranger things have happened. I just think you're relying on analogs too much. Though, I've never been a big fan of analogs.

 

Anything can happen, but our climate is often fairly mundane and predictable when it comes to these things, as you know. And then you have to account for the fact that significant climo outliers on the cold side are just a fantastically rare occurrence nowadays.

[Geos]

One of my earliest memories as a kid of getting snow. Some parts of PDX got over a foot of snow. Classic retrogression signal.

 

Enjoyed seeing the old weather channel crew! Thanks for posting.

[BLI snowman]

You added the qualifier of "widespread Arctic air" when talking about Feb 1959.

 

And your second paragraph is reverting to local events...not what we were talking about, which was the large-scale tendencies. Overall, the tendency the first half of 1958-59 was for western torching. Thus the stats for OLM I cited.

 

That was implied, since February 2003 delivered modified arctic air and you mentioned seeing an event more significant than that. February 1959 had some decent wet snow and some Fraser River outflow, but nothing that was a regional or major event.

[TT-SEA]

Anything can happen, but our climate is often fairly mundane and predictable when it comes to these things, as you know. And then you have to account for the fact that significant climo outliers on the cold side are just a fantastically rare occurrence nowadays.

Like slot machines at casinos... you lose the vast majority of the time but every once in awhile someone hits big.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Haha! I just got this! You’re referencing anal intercoursing!

That's what he said after a few drinks

[BLI snowman]

Didn't say it was. He just asked for an example where something better than Feb 2003 happened in a +ENSO winter that wasn't predominantly cool/troughy for the West to this point.

 

What do you think are the best large-scale analogs going forward? 

 

No, I also mentioned in a pattern where things overwhelmingly favored the East as they look to going forward. Nice job moving the goalposts though 

[Geos]

Nice day...

 

Really surprised Mount Si isn't white right now...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW the EPS control model looks just like the GFS parallel model late in the month with the prospects for a major cold wave. The EPS ensemble mean also has a + anomaly in the sweet spot late month although the downstream stuff isn't sharp enough for greatness here...at least not yet. The LRC this season says we should have an opportunity sometime in the next 2.5 weeks. At least the model trends look a bit positive right now.

Yeah, I just saw the 12z EURO EPS Control run and it looks good late January. The ridge is further offshore, just needs some amplification. That's one heck of a brutal Arctic air mass in Western Canada!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is going a different direction...Can't tell quite what yet though.

[snow_wizard]

It's easy to see why the models have improved today.  Very nice changes in the MJO forecast with a wave expected to emerge in 4 or 5 now.  The last 4 / 5 wave was at the very end of December and was correlated with the cold trough we had at that time.  Maybe the potential coming trough will be the big one.

[snow_wizard]

18z is going a different direction...Can't tell quite what yet though.

 

Day 10 looks potentially good.

[snow_wizard]

The 18 unquestionably has the positive height anoms further west with a Kona low.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 10 looks potentially good.

 

Yeah, the pattern has some promise, but the real cold air is MUCH further east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run goes nowhere.

[Requiem]

Will you look at that, the East Coast gets slammed this run. But we can enjoy our overcast 40-degree weather while living vicariously through Boston traffic-cams.

[Phil]

I blame gravity waves from Tim’s rapid pulse rate earlier today. #LolSoftwoods

 

[MossMan]

I blame gravity waves from Tim’s rapid pulse rate earlier today. #LolSoftwoods

 

Power lines and downed branches...I didn’t think trees were allowed to be that close to the lines over your way... Someone dropped the ball.

[Jesse]

I blame gravity waves from Tim’s rapid pulse rate earlier today. #LolSoftwoods

 

Nice excuse to post ur snow bruh.

[MossMan]

Took down the outside Christmas lights today...while wearing shorts...

[Phil]

Nice excuse to post ur snow bruh.

Got me.