February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skies must clear late next Sunday on this run because by 4am Monday temps are frigid.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going to be a fun night.

 

I hope I don't fall asleep again lol.

[TT-SEA]

Skies must clear late next Sunday on this run because by 4am Monday temps are frigid.

 

Yes... finally clears out down there.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lows next Monday morning.

 

Sea: 21

Oly:  11

PDX: 16

SLE: 19

EUG: 22

 

Highs

 

Sea: 37

Oly: 36

PDX: 34

SLE: 37

EUG: 37

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Arctic air is starting to spill out off the northern BC coast. Currently 27F at Prince Rupert with moderate NW winds and 32F in Sandspit also with NW winds. That airmass will be arriving down here tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

850mb temp UPDATE - As of 10 PM Brutally cold arctic air continues to deepen and expand just north of Central British Columbia. It will start to make its move southward overnight and tomorrow.

 

[FroYoBro]

Lows next Monday morning.

 

Sea: 21

Oly: 11

PDX: 16

SLE: 19

EUG: 22

 

Highs

 

Sea: 37

Oly: 36

PDX: 34

SLE: 37

EUG: 37

Tasty.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

As of right now, it looks like Monday will be a snow day for students living in PDX Metro.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Cone of dryness may be due to combo of sharpness of deformation band wrapping around the low to the SW and easterly flow off the Cascades. There is typically a sharp cutoff on the N/E edge of these bands, but the dryness from easterlies may be overdone. Will be interesting!

— Jay Albrecht (@AlbrechtJay) February 2, 2019

 

[Requiem]

As of right now, it looks like Monday will be a snow day for students living in PDX Metro.

 

I can only hope! Then again I live in the West Hills and usually see more snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I can only hope! Then again I live in the West Hills and usually see more snow.

 

Yeah, PPS usually call it up there first because that area has the slickest conditions. When I was going to school, one of my favorite memories was getting up early to watch the news and to see if my school district was going to say schools closed for the day.

[Meatyorologist]

 

 

I was just going to link this! Jay is a very credible source with an extensive scientific background.

 

Edit: quote just copied raw .json file so here is the tweet: https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1091590680202231808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1091590680202231808&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Ftheweatherforums.com%2Findex.php%2Ftopic%2F1959-february-2019-weather-in-the-pacific-northwest%2Fpage-18

[Requiem]

Yeah, PPS usually call it up there first because that area has the slickest conditions. When I was going to school, one of my favorite memories was getting up early to watch the news and to see if my school district was going to say schools closed for the day.

 

Still annoyed at the fact they didn't cancel school February last year during the second of the two snowstorms we got. 

[GHweatherChris]

Still annoyed at the fact they didn't cancel school February last year during the second of the two snowstorms we got.

You seem like a very stressed out teenager, why is that? You are too young to have anxiety...

[Jesse]

You seem like a very stressed out teenager, why is that? You are too young to have anxiety...

That seemed like a pretty normal post.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Still annoyed at the fact they didn't cancel school February last year during the second of the two snowstorms we got. 

 

Oh wow, I didn't know that. What were the conditions like that day up there?

[Requiem]

You seem like a very stressed out teenager, why is that? You are too young to have anxiety...

 

Oh lol, don't interpret that the wrong way, I was just irritated because we had six inches of snow on the ground and they decided at 6:30 in the morning to give us a "two-hour late start". I was all geared up for a snow day!

[MikeInEverett]

You seem like a very stressed out teenager, why is that? You are too young to have anxiety...

Younger people don’t have as many serious things to worry about so stuff like the weather stresses them out more than it would someone that is older. I was the same way. Still kind of am.

[Requiem]

Oh wow, I didn't know that. What were the conditions like that day up there?

 

Nasty, everything had refrozen. When we got to >500 ft, it became apparent why they didn't cancel school as all the main roads had thawed out nicely.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nasty, everything had refrozen. When we got to >500 ft, it became apparent why they didn't cancel school as all the main roads had thawed out nicely.

 

The good thing is that we're earlier in the month compared to last year.

[Jesse]

Younger people don’t have as many serious things to worry about so stuff like the weather stresses them out more than it would someone that is older.

 

Tell that to Tim and Jim.

[Brennan]

Oh lol, don't interpret that the wrong way, I was just irritated because we had six inches of snow on the ground and they decided at 6:30 in the morning to give us a "two-hour late start". I was all geared up for a snow day!

Just skip school. People these days think that missing a day or 2 of school is going to make them fail in the real world.. I NEVER missed school, always got pretty good grades... And that s**t is a SCAM. You can learn everything and retain the information that is necessary, so, none of it. . . and go start at a CC for super cheap and learn more irrelevant s**t... than go to a 4 year school and hope they teach you some truths about the world. and then afterwards you can go live at your parents house and be broke and have no work experience. 

 

Disclaimer - I am a good speller, I just choose to misspell things on purpose and say to when I should say too and than when I should say then. And sometimes spellcheck punks my a**. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just skip school. People these days think that missing a day or 2 of school is going to make them fail in the real world.. I NEVER missed school, always got pretty good grades... And that s**t is a SCAM. You can learn everything and retain the information that is necessary, so, none of it. . . and go start at a CC for super cheap and learn more irrelevant s**t... than go to a 4 year school and hope they teach you some truths about the world. and then afterwards you can go live at your parents house and be broke and have no work experience.

 

Disclaimer - I am a good speller, I just choose to misspell things on purpose and say to when I should say too and than when I should say then. And sometimes spellcheck punks my a**.

Good stuff here!!

[Guest Sounder]

Just skip school. People these days think that missing a day or 2 of school is going to make them fail in the real world.. I NEVER missed school, always got pretty good grades... And that s**t is a SCAM. You can learn everything and retain the information that is necessary, so, none of it. . . and go start at a CC for super cheap and learn more irrelevant s**t... than go to a 4 year school and hope they teach you some truths about the world. and then afterwards you can go live at your parents house and be broke and have no work experience. 

 

Disclaimer - I am a good speller, I just choose to misspell things on purpose and say to when I should say too and than when I should say then. And sometimes spellcheck punks my a**. 

I'm not really a moron! I just pretend to be! Good lord.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Not that it should surprise anyone by now but the 00z EPS continues to show cold rebuilding in the PNW around D12.

 

I hate to sound like a broken record but dang that thing has not budged at all. Not even a blink.

[Brennan]

I'm not really a moron! I just pretend to be! Good lord.

Soccer BLOWS

[Requiem]

Just skip school. People these days think that missing a day or 2 of school is going to make them fail in the real world.. I NEVER missed school, always got pretty good grades... And that s**t is a SCAM. You can learn everything and retain the information that is necessary, so, none of it. . . and go start at a CC for super cheap and learn more irrelevant s**t... than go to a 4 year school and hope they teach you some truths about the world. and then afterwards you can go live at your parents house and be broke and have no work experience. 

 

Disclaimer - I am a good speller, I just choose to misspell things on purpose and say to when I should say too and than when I should say then. And sometimes spellcheck punks my a**. 

 

Er....good advice?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Friday night shift. What’s the drink and/or strain?

 

Pelican and San Fernando Valley up in here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 6z NAM seems to have everything a notch further SE, looks like more moisture could be in play for NW WA/SW BC with this run. Looks like East Vancouver Island is going to do very well out of this.

 

[Requiem]

Friday night shift. What’s the drink and/or strain?

 

Pelican and San Fernando Valley up in here.

 

Water and more water over here.

[Requiem]

The 6z NAM seems to have everything a notch further SE, looks like more moisture could be in play for NW WA/SW BC with this run. Looks like East Vancouver Island is going to do very well out of this.

 

 

Would you imagine Portland will do okay as well?

[wxmet]

6z NAM is further east with the trough coming down western Canada. The models have been underestimating the strength of the ridge in the Pacific. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Would you imagine Portland will do okay as well?

 

Yes in terms of precipitation, you would get more banding coming in on the coast there. But this trend would further block the low level outflow from building in down there. I imagine Portland will do alright though, if not with the initial shot than as the low exits the region on Monday.

[Parksvillewx]

The 6z NAM seems to have everything a notch further SE, looks like more moisture could be in play for NW WA/SW BC with this run. Looks like East Vancouver Island is going to do very well out of this.

 

 

Hoping some strait effect sets up here. Looks like Duncan to Nanaimo is in the ideal spot for it though.

[Requiem]

Hoping some strait effect sets up here. Looks like Duncan to Nanaimo is in the ideal spot for it though.

 

Hope this run still has the deformation zone dropping south from Olympia.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hoping some strait effect sets up here. Looks like Duncan to Nanaimo is in the ideal spot for it though.

 

Parksville is in a pretty good spot for strait-effect snow with a low in that position. Wouldn't be surprised if you got over 6" of snow on Sunday.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

12km NAM has been moving everything further South the past few runs.

 

06z NAM looks kind of anemic precip-wise too, at least through Monday.

 

 

[Requiem]

12km NAM has been moving everything further South the past few runs.

 

06z NAM looks kind of anemic precip-wise too, at least through Monday.

 

Not a good run I feel, almost no snow at all for the lowlands.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Not a good run I feel, almost no snow at all for the lowlands.

 

As the GFS and Euro got a little snowier, the NAM got less. Figures.  

 

At least we aren't less than 48 hours out from showtime. Oh, wait...

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM is further east with the trough coming down western Canada. The models have been underestimating the strength of the ridge in the Pacific. 

The block has trended stronger for the past 8 runs. 6z NAM was also 2 notches stronger than 00z.