February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That makes sense. Well, if you're excited then I'm starting to feel anticipatory for sure.

You should be excited. This is going to be our best chance this winter at some lowland snow. Plus the cool part is this looks like an extended cold spell. Not a one shot deal like other past events.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Which one? I remember several snows. The big one just before Thanksgiving is the one I will never forget. I was in Bellingham. It had been cold for quite awhile, we had some snow, but other places had more. Forecast that day, Tuesday, was for a few flurries. Then it got cloudier and cloudier and was snowing by noon and did not stop. Epic. I think a little low spun off the coast and strengthened, and just drew a bunch of moisture from the ocean and dumped snow over us. Snowed all evening and was clear the next day. I remember how quiet the city was because no cars were driving

Thats the one. I was in 7th grade and into weather. After the snow stopped i remember looking up at the big thermometer above our door and it was 16 degrees and i said man this is the real deal. We were out of school for over a week. Great memories.

[ShawniganLake]

Currently down to 7F here in Quesnel with a windchill of -11F. It feels pretty brisk. But honestly not that cold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Updated the "liked post" bit to hold Frontal over until the new platform.

Thanks. Can't wait to see the new platform.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows some light snow on Thursday with the next low... but high temps look too warm for meaningful accumulation. 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow. FV3 also showing a nice event for next Thursday/Friday.

 

 

Good snowfall accumulations for much of the region.

[Gradient Keeper]

Currently down to 7F here in Quesnel with a windchill of -11F. It feels pretty brisk. But honestly not that cold.

The coldest air and upper level trough are still to your north. Enjoy!

[TT-SEA]

Total snow with second system on Thursday into Friday morning... just a bit less than the GFS for the Seattle area.    

 

Same areas seem to win again on this run.    <_>

 

[GHweatherChris]

High bust potential still, we all have to admit that.... right?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Total snow through Monday evening... HUGE improvements to the south.    King County is still in the screw zone though.

 

 

Looking good!

[jakeinthevalley]

Did not notice that... wow!

 

Assume the ECMWF believes there will be deep snow cover there.

Well, even if there is deep snowcover, at that temp the snow will soon disappear.

 

Don't believe me, just as Phil.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[TT-SEA]

Well, even if there is deep snowcover, at that temp the snow will soon disappear.

 

Don't believe me, just as Phil.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO next week reminds me of last February.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

SW WA and Portland folks should be seriously excited about the 00Z ECMWF.  

 

I'm cautiously excited. Still got a few more runs to go before we can say for sure those snowfall amounts will verify.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is just Sunday 4 a.m. through Tuesday 4 a.m. to filter out the mountain snow it shows falling now.  

 

 

Not bad at all.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like basically dry, cold northerly flow next weekend on 00Z ECMWF.  

[wxmet]

Lack of precip and offshore flow is why King County is shown to be screwed right now.   One more notch eastward and that will not be an issue.

What I am saying is lack of precip isn't an issue as I am sure many would be happy with 1-2 inches of snow in the Seattle metro. It's the temperatures near the surface due to the onshore flow that's the issue for accumulating snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

The coldest air and upper level trough are still to your north. Enjoy!

Yea. I posted earlier, not sure if you saw it. But windchills are forecast to hit the mid -30s tomorrow night here.

[BLI snowman]

High bust potential still, we all have to admit that.... right?

 

The cold pattern is a lock at this point, and it's a lock that many of us will end up scoring some snow. So no, the potential for some of us to get screwed with essentially mesoscale snowfalls is not the equivalent of a large scale bust.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Saturday... with some sun up here.  

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

ECMWF shows some light snow on Thursday with the next low... but high temps look too warm for meaningful accumulation. 

 

 

 

I'd focus more on the dewpoints leading up to that than temperatures. Should be some super low dewpoints and plenty of evaporative cooling if there's any moisture to work with.

[TT-SEA]

What I am saying is lack of precip isn't an issue as I am sure many would be happy with 1-2 inches of snow in the Seattle metro. It's the temperatures near the surface due to the onshore flow that's the issue for accumulating snow. 

 

 

Probably a combination of both... but it will definitely be cold enough for snow by Sunday evening and Monday morning in Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm cautiously excited. Still got a few more runs to go before we can say for sure those snowfall amounts will verify.

I usually wait till the snow is sitting in my yard before I say those snow amounts have for sure verified.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow with second system on Thursday into Friday morning... just a bit less than the GFS for the Seattle area.

 

Same areas seem to win again on this run. <_>

 

Wow. I’ll be sad if that verifies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42/24 next Saturday at SLE. Pretty solid. 

[TT-SEA]

Low temps on Sunday morning...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Going to be a fun night.

[Brennan]

Which one? I remember several snows. The big one just before Thanksgiving is the one I will never forget. I was in Bellingham. It had been cold for quite awhile, we had some snow, but other places had more. Forecast that day, Tuesday, was for a few flurries. Then it got cloudier and cloudier and was snowing by noon and did not stop. Epic. I think a little low spun off the coast and strengthened, and just drew a bunch of moisture from the ocean and dumped snow over us. Snowed all evening and was clear the next day. I remember how quiet the city was because no cars were driving

Keep going! How much did it snow? What was the temp? Did it snow in other locations??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great EURO run through about Friday, after that the GFS and FV-3 are definitely better...But we can work on that... The short term really improved tonight.

[TT-SEA]

Solid block still in place at day 10... this set up is dry though.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

The cold pattern is a lock at this point, and it's a lock that many of us will end up scoring some snow. So no, the potential for some of us to get screwed with essentially mesoscale snowfalls is not the equivalent of a large scale bust.

Potential for a snowfall bust is definitely there for most of us. It could bust for the better or worse, who knows.

 

Not sure why you all take my posts as straight negative, just being realistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High next Sunday only mid-30s PDX upper 30s SLE.

[Brennan]

If there is one thing that annoys me it's how deep these troughs have to dig. . . What ever happened to them swinging east in Oregon? Now they don't even stop at the Mexico border. #BUILDTHEWALL #BUTBUILDITINSOUTHERNOREGON

[TT-SEA]

High temps on day 9 (Sunday)... this is with full sunshine for WA at least.

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Ok this latest euro has me excited now. Really hoping King county can get in on it too though.

[TT-SEA]

Potential for a snowfall bust is definitely there for most of us.

 

 

Your mood is slowly improving.