February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TT-SEA]

Go enjoy your vacation dude. For the love of god.

My family is soooo slow getting up and going. I did take one son surfing already this morning and he got rolled bad into a reef and came out bleeding all down his leg. For brief moment I thought he was in big trouble. Surf board came shooting out of wave like a rocket and he was nowhere to be seen.

[snow_wizard]

Another thing to remember about this pattern is a great event could show up on very short notice.  The ingredients are there.

[TT-SEA]

Which is precisely why he is doing it.

 

#oregontim

I have been pretty positive... despite being buried in more snow than I ever wanted.

[HighlandExperience]

Cliff thinks it’s going to snow!

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-potential-for-more-lowland-snow.html?m=1

Wow. I’d feel better if the euro showed widespread 1-3 inches though.

[Jesse]

I have been pretty positive... despite being buried in more snow than I ever wanted.

 

Tim you are just the MVP. Your maps make it snow!

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10... consistent with previous runs and moving up in time.    And the ridge builds in even more in the 10-15 day period.

 

[snow_wizard]

Cliff thinks it’s going to snow!

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-potential-for-more-lowland-snow.html?m=1

 

Nice!  A majority of ECMWF ensemble members show 2 to 5 inches for SEA over the next 10 days.

 

BTW is data for the individual ECMWF ensemble members available on Weatherbell?  If so how do you find it?

[Jesse]

12Z EPS at day 10... consistent with previous runs and moving up in time.    And the ridge builds in even more in the 10-15 day period.

 

 

 

That's still not a very warm pattern, compared to climo. With the axis of ridging offshore. Probably mild days and cold nights.

[ewnichols25]

[snow_wizard]

That's still not a very warm pattern, compared to climo. With the axis of ridging offshore. Probably mild days and cold nights.

 

I would much rather see a progression than a pinch off.  Pinch offs can lead to awful weather...warm and wet.  A ridge moving in over us would keep it chilly with plenty of cold nights.

[TT-SEA]

That's still not a very warm pattern, compared to climo. With the axis of ridging offshore. Probably mild days and cold nights.

Yes... I already said that.

[snow_wizard]

I like our maritime environment though. Bulldozing the southern Coast Mountains and the Canadian Rockies might do the trick to get more cold air to us in winter. Obviously a pipe dream 

 

I would much rather live in a continental climate.  Much more enjoyable.  We have our moments here, but usually something totally nasty comes along to change an enjoyable event into a mess.

[Cloud]

Cliff thinks it’s going to snow!

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-potential-for-more-lowland-snow.html?m=1

Pretty much the kiss of death here. Last time him and his precious WRF predicted all snow event for Seattle (10-12”) 2-3 days out it turned into a warmup.

[Jesse]

Yes... I already said that.

 

Well you repeat yourself enough where you shouldn't have a problem with others repeating you. I must have missed it.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much the kiss of death here. Last time him and his precious WRF predicted all snow event for Seattle (10-12”) 2-3 days out it turned into a warmup.

 

He did well with the Friday event.  All things considered that was my favorite event for Covington since I moved here in 2000.

[TT-SEA]

He did well with the Friday event. All things considered that was my favorite event for Covington since I moved here in 2000.

That was the best event for sure.

[Cloud]

He did well with the Friday event. All things considered that was my favorite event for Covington since I moved here in 2000.

Totally agree. My favorite was the 1st event even though it was in lighter amount. But with the shitty winter we have had that event brought out the kid in me and the freeze that followed after was beautiful.

 

Then the Friday event was an absolute best, I stayed up all night tracking that one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pattern the EURO is showing looks great. And I certainly hope we can have our first cool spring since 2012. 

[Front Ranger]

Flagstaff has always been #1 on my all-time climate fave list but there are other aspects of the town that turned me off from wanting to live there.

 

Flagstaff is fairly similar to Denver's climate in the winter, except they get more snowfall (especially mid winter) and have fewer really cold or really warm days. They once had 126" of snow in one month.

 

The Pinetop area is also very nice, although it's not as cold or snowy in the winter. Still average 47" of snow a year, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Weather Advisory has officially verified as of noon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flagstaff is fairly similar to Denver's climate in the winter, except they get more snowfall (especially mid winter) and have fewer really cold or really warm days. They once had 126" of snow in one month.

 

The Pinetop area is also very nice, although it's not as cold or snowy in the winter. Still average 47" of snow a year, though.

 

I imagine they see some nice snow:water ratios there. 

[Cloud]

The pattern the EURO is showing looks great. And I certainly hope we can have our first cool spring since 2012.

A cool spring sounds heavenly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 4.5" on the day now and 30" on the month.

[snow_wizard]

Flagstaff is fairly similar to Denver's climate in the winter, except they get more snowfall (especially mid winter) and have fewer really cold or really warm days. They once had 126" of snow in one month.

 

The Pinetop area is also very nice, although it's not as cold or snowy in the winter. Still average 47" of snow a year, though.

 

If I move to a continental climate it will be one where it stays cold consistently cold like Central WA or Western Montana.

[ewnichols25]

I would much rather live in a continental climate.  Much more enjoyable.  We have our moments here, but usually something totally nasty comes along to change an enjoyable event into a mess.

I wouldn't mind having the climate of the inland Northwest or interior BC, but eastern continental climates are just too volatile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't mind having the climate of the inland Northwest or interior BC, but eastern continental climates are just too volatile.

 

True...too much potential for ugliness like freezing rain or snow followed by epic rain like we see here.  Western continental climates are awesome.  We have places in WA that average 70+ inches of snow a year and yet have annual precip around 15 to 20 inches.

[van city]

18z NAM will make a lot of you happy but Grumpy Tim.

[Jesse]

12z EPS handles the trough at hour 168 a lot differently than the operational.

 

 

Also looks cooler at day 10 than the operational. Lower heights. Looks like a pattern where another shot of cold air could surprise us going into March.

 

[TT-SEA]

18z NAM will make a lot of you happy but Grumpy Tim.

I never care what the NAM shows.

[Jesse]

I never care what the NAM shows.

Still in Hawaii right?

[Front Ranger]

Another thing to remember about this pattern is a great event could show up on very short notice.  The ingredients are there.

 

The persistence of GOA/Alaskan blocking this month has been remarkable, especially as it looks to continue for at least the next 7-10 days. Haven't seen a -PNA/-EPO combo like this in a long, long time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is Tim's house getting more snow today?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like things should start winding down by about 2-3p.

[ShawniganLake]

18z NAM will make a lot of you happy but Grumpy Tim.

I heard North bend was devastated. People were snowed in for entire day. In some cases 2.

[van city]

I never care what the NAM shows.

Why would you.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Up to 45F here today, I wasn't expecting it to warm up this much this quickly but Victoria doesn't have much protecting it from warm onshore winds. Funny enough it's still below average, but it feels balmy out there after the previous two weeks. The melt-off is in full swing, hoping things will cool off quickly later in the day and into tomorrow:

 

[TT-SEA]

Is Tim's house getting more snow today?

Not likely. ECMWF showed almost nothing.

[Front Ranger]

If I move to a continental climate it will be one where it stays cold consistently cold like Central WA or Western Montana.

 

Well, as many people who have lived in colder, more continental climates have pointed out, the cold/snow becomes a lot less special and without breaks it actually gets pretty old - at least for the vast majority of people.

 

Much of central/eastern WA and western MT usually has mild weather at times in the winter, though, so that would be pretty tolerable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much did the ECMWF show up here? Seems like maybe 1-2" at most...