February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Requiem]

ICON is running! Fingers crossed!

[snow_wizard]

I'm feeling better about tonight and tomorrow morning.  There is obviously a lot of moisture and the ECMWF has been insistent this area will get a fair amount of precip.  The new 3km NAM shows an area of heavy snow early tomorrow morning right around this area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Troutdale down to 37.

[Esquimalt]

The RGEM is now showing an identical feature to the gfs over Victoria tomorrow morning except as rain except snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

RGEM slams the low into Gold Beach. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

More south

[TT-SEA]

00Z ICON for Monday morning...

 

[Perturbed Member]

00z RGEM is north of the 18z run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 44 at EUG.

[Requiem]

00z RGEM is north of the 18z run.

Much improved! Last landfall was around Brookings, now a bit more north. Cape Blanco seems to be a consensus thus far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON says Cape Blanco too. FWIW it has significant snow much further south than its 18z run.

[Deweydog]

My cautious optimism is getting reckless!!!!

[Requiem]

ICON says Cape Blanco too.

Bandon or Coquille could be the landfall spot, with some luck.

[TT-SEA]

41 at SEA with a dewpoint of 36 and light rain.

 

A few sprinkles here and 38.   

[joaqweri]

00z NAM shifted a bit north. now dropping 2-3" in SEA,  5-8" in PDX.

[Requiem]

00z NAM shifted a bit north. now dropping 2-3" in SEA, 5-8" in PDX.

Good sign. So did the RGEM. The model I’m really concerned about is the EURO after what the 18Z showed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

41 at SEA with a dewpoint of 36 and light rain.

 

A few sprinkles here and 38.

 

34 here just had a mixed shower.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just by watching sat loop i expect to see some north movement on the gfs and Canadian.

[joaqweri]

Good sign. So did the RGEM. The model I’m really concerned about is the EURO after what the 18Z showed.

good sign for PDX. still praying for the 00z runs of the euro, GFS, and FV3 to either start going north or miraculously switch to an astoria landfall.

[Requiem]

Just by watching sat loop i expect to see some north movement on the gfs and Canadian.

North just in general over the next day or two? Or for tomorrow morning’s system?

 

PS: Thank you for the Pantera suggestion, never listened to them before.

[joaqweri]

00z NAM has landfall somewhere between coos bay and cape blanco. good for PDX snowfans.

[Deweydog]

good sign for PDX. still praying for the 00z runs of the euro, GFS, and FV3 to either start going north or miraculously switch to an astoria landfall.

So basically you are the type of person that prayed for 9-11.

[joaqweri]

So basically you are the type of person that prayed for 9-11.

?????

[Geos]

The NWS is going for a 400 foot snow level late tonight and tomorrow morning. That is the exact height I live at. Looking at the sat pic you can see a nice moisture plume off the coast. That should all rotate in tonight as the low drops south. Cautiously optimistic for the EPSL over the next 18 hours.

Sounds good, 400 ft. Hoping to get some light snow accumulations in this pattern even if we don't get nothing big. Would seem a waste of cold air if we got 0".

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

North just in general over the next day or two? Or for tomorrow morning’s system?

PS: Thank you for the Pantera suggestion, never listened to them before.

Small shift north second system.

[Requiem]

I'm hoping the second system is the one forecast for Sunday night-Monday (the one causing the gnashing of teeth).

[El_Nina]

Troutdale down to 37.

38 here. Must mean they have a slightly cooler gorge wind.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS farther south at 30 hours.

[Guest Sounder]

00Z GFS farther south at 30 hours.

San Francisco landfall??

[Requiem]

00Z GFS farther south at 30 hours.

 

Ouch. That's pretty significant.

[Deweydog]

Ouch. That's pretty significant.

Significantly south.

[TT-SEA]

San Francisco landfall??

 

 

Getting close to CA at least.  

[Gummy]

San Francisco landfall??

 

Don't be silly not that far south! Eureka maybe.

[Requiem]

No snow for PDX this run.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice to watch the winds swing around to northerly.  Not that it means much at this point, but it's better than southerlies!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows snow from Salem southward at 10 a.m. on Monday.

[Requiem]

00Z GFS shows snow from Salem southward at 10 a.m. on Monday.

 

Not good for people up north. We need it to go just a little north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS seems to be diminishing the moisture shield with each run.

[Timmy Supercell]

February 2019 is currently on track to becoming my 3rd snowiest month since moving here in Dec 2010.

[TT-SEA]

Not all periods are updating on Tropical Tidbits... annoying.