February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON, nothing really new. 

 

[Bryant]

True. Today’s Euro snowmaps were absolute heartbreakers for Portland.

I'm not saying the Euro was bad for portland at all. You definitely want the trend to end now though

[BLI snowman]

People desperately clinging onto the models that show what they want to see in their backyard... model fight!

 

Never a good sign when the Euro isn't on your side

 

The 12z Euro output shows 17" of snow at PDX on Monday and Tuesday

 

 http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_12z_EntireRun.jpg

[Jesse]

I'm not saying the Euro was bad for portland at all. You definitely want the trend to end now though

We definitely do. Sadly Tim already knows exactly what will happen so that kind of kills it as far as any suspense.

[Bryant]

The 12z Euro output shows 17" of snow at PDX on Monday and Tuesday

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_12z_EntireRun.jpg

Would be quite humorous if you guys saw more snow fall in one storm than I've seen fall all winter, especially given your luck the past few years

[BLI snowman]

18z ICON, nothing really new. 

 

 

 

#prayfonorthbend

[Jesse]

#prayfonorthbend

#trendingnorthbend

[Deweydog]

The 12z Euro output shows 17" of snow at PDX on Monday and Tuesday

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_12z_EntireRun.jpg

I still have quite a bit of model snowfall from a week and a half ago in my shady areas and in massive shoveled piles.

 

#oncebittentwiceshy

#myohmy

[Jesse]

I still have quite a bit of model snowfall from a week and a half ago in my shady areas and in massive shoveled piles.

I think the true war this time around is the anti-snow weenie abilities of Battle Ground SD versus North Bend SD.

[TT-SEA]

#trendingnorthbend

NB will be ground zero again. Bank on it!

[Deweydog]

I think the true war this time around is the anti-snow weenie abilities of Battle Ground SD versus North Bend SD.

Snow would be nice. Hopefully things don’t trend north, but if they do we’ll have more chances in March. Don’t fret, my little snow bunny!!!

[Jesse]

NB will be ground zero again. Bank on it!

The weather doesn’t care about reverse psychology or due-isms, fwiw. You and Matt need to put away the voodoo dolls.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS out to 18 hrs. From this point on the progression is obvious. I can clearly extrapolate out to Monday, the low is going south. 

[TT-SEA]

The weather doesn’t care about reverse psychology or due-isms, fwiw. You and Matt need to put away the voodoo dolls.

Nature does not care... and it will end up in NB again. This is a classic set up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A period I think bears watching is Sunday morning when some of the models form a small surface low off the Central Oregon Coast and track it ENE into Central Oregon along with a quasi-stationary band of moderate precipitation. The NAM, NAVGEM, and ICON all have this feature, I just noticed it so I don't know if any of the other models do. This small surface low does a couple of things, but most importantly it kills any southerly flow up the Willamette Valley as it passes. This bears watching, as it could be a snowmaker for the metro area. 

 

 

[Jesse]

Nature does not care... and it will end up in NB again. This is a classic set up.

You are doing sort of an intellectual disservice to the actual meteorological differences between next week’s setup and the one a few weeks ago, today. I know trolling is important to you but don’t sacrifice your integrity.

[TT-SEA]

You are doing sort of an intellectual disservice to the actual meteorological differences between next week’s setup and the one a few weeks ago, today. I know trolling is important to you but don’t sacrifice your integrity.

Nope. I am being honest based on the trends and what happened last week. You will see... and will still mock me when I am right.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z Euro output shows 17" of snow at PDX on Monday and Tuesday

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/web_ECMWF_Text_12z_EntireRun.jpg

That would be historic if that verified.

[Perturbed Member]

A period I think bears watching is Sunday morning when some of the models form a small surface low off the Central Oregon Coast and track it ENE into Central Oregon along with a quasi-stationary band of moderate precipitation. The NAM, NAVGEM, and ICON all have this feature, I just noticed it so I don't know if any of the other models do. This small surface low does a couple of things, but most importantly it kills any southerly flow up the Willamette Valley as it passes. This bears watching, as it could be a snowmaker for the metro area. 

 

 

GFS sees it

[Deweydog]

You are doing sort of an intellectual disservice to the actual meteorological differences between next week’s setup and the one a few weeks ago, today. I know trolling is important to you but don’t sacrifice your integrity.

Who cares? The fact you guys wring your hands so hard about some King County yuppy’s armchair forecast clearly tips your anxiety-ridden hand.

 

By Sunday there is a very good chance this thing will be deviated north. It’s a pretty similar setup and there are many instances in the past where patterns seem to have memory over relative short term. 2016-17 agrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we tend to fall into a model recency bias too. As in the EURO comes in later than other 00z or 12z runs, so if it comes in north or south we tend to say. "12z runs came in north," even though overall it was very mixed. The 18z NAM and ICON came in the same or further south than the 12z, but I am sure if the GFS comes in a little further north someone will say it is further proof of a northern trend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS sees it

 

If it is on the 00z it will be interesting to see how the WRF handles it. I would think there would be quite a bit of dynamic cooling to the NW of that low.

[Jesse]

Who cares? The fact you guys wring your hands so hard about some King County yuppy’s armchair forecast clearly tips your anxiety-ridden hand.

 

By Sunday there is a very good chance this thing will be deviated north. It’s a pretty similar setup and there are many instances in the past where patterns seem to have memory over relative short term. 2016-17 agrees.

Tim is being perfectly reasonable and everyone else is wrong. That will be another $1,600.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting run. The AR associated with this is a little further north and much stronger/wetter. Low might be a little further south, but is stronger and has stronger WAA. Very dynamic setup. Starting to look to me like the main show could end up being sooner than we though with that heavy band of precip out ahead of the low. Kind of like the situation in Redding last week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Looks like 4-6" of precip in a 48 hour period up here.

[Deweydog]

Tim is being perfectly reasonable and everyone else is wrong. That will be another $1,600.

Blah blah blah...

 

Nothing he has said is unreasonable or unfounded. He’s just being typically timsessive about it and doesn’t know when to quit.

[MossMan]

Mid 40's

Low to mid 40’s. Per the Europeans.

[Deweydog]

18z trended _________.

[Jesse]

Blah blah blah...

 

Nothing he has said is unreasonable or unfounded. He’s just being typically timsessive about it and doesn’t know when to quit.

Ouch, that just lost you 50%.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is about 40 miles north. #Timwazrite

[TT-SEA]

Ouch, that just lost you 50%.

 

 

Nope... he is correct on all points.   As usual.

[Jesse]

Could be a scary day for the sub-50 stretch...

[Deweydog]

GFS is about 40 miles north. #Timwazrite

Snowy 4 me!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a much different pattern progression than the EURO though. With the EURO warm air floods north after the low passes, with the GFS cold air pours back in from the NW as the low departs.

[Jesse]

Nope... he is correct on all points. As usual.

Then quit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be a scary day for the sub-50 stretch...

 

Big jump to 46 at PDX and SLE.

[Perturbed Member]

Its over

 

 

here is the FV3

[Perturbed Member]

FV3, lol. Totally believable getting 14+ inches in Eugene with the low well north of them. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its over

 

 

here is the FV3

 

And here is 12 hours later...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

It could trend south still, it’s not over for people in the Portland metro the models can flip back to what they were saying just the run before again tonight, you just never know nothings ever certain in forecasting.