February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could have more days like today plz.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The weekend trough doesn't really dig south as it was initially progged too. It kind of stalls and gets smooshed offshore by the undercutting energy (It does not dig offshore.). 

 

The one upside to this being tonight should be mostly clear across W. Oregon, possible more clearing than last night. Lows forecast on the EURO in the 26-28 range for the metro area and WV. 

[TT-SEA]

Would it be a true statement that the EURO is the only model you really pay attention to?

Every model trended north from their 00Z runs. Are you even paying attention or just interested in mocking me. Because you make lots of stupid debbie downer comments on here based on almost nothing but one run of one model at 10+ days out.

 

At 4 days out and all models trending north... that is totally different. And we are in the range now where the ECMWF is the model to watch most closely and it has shifted north significantly over the last 3 runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ATTACK TIM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ATTACK TIM.

 

Nah I get it. He wants more snow and is wishcasting a dramatic northern trend. I want TWL to get snow and am wishcasting for it to stays south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS yesterday

 

12z GFS today

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TT-SEA]

Nah I get it. He wants more snow and is wishcasting a dramatic northern trend. I want TWL to get snow and am wishcasting for it to stays south.

Yep... that's it.

 

So dumb.

[TT-SEA]

12Z FV3 yesterday morning...

 

 

 

And 12Z run this morning...

 

[Requiem]

One should also remember that there was a northward trend day before yesterday followed by a very dramatic southern trend. This event seems to involve an undercutting scenario with less involvement from the north.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re all passionate about snow but I mean at the end of the day if it doesn’t snow where you live, life goes on and the world keeps spinning. I get it it’s disappointing we’ve all been disappointed a couple times every winter, but we all live within an hour drive of snow wether you are in OR or WA. you can see snow 6-8 months out of the year if you really want to see it that bad, or there’s always colder climates to the east of us that are better if you really want snow that much. Overall it’s just snow, if it doesn’t happen it’ll happen again in the future inevitably

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep... that's it.

 

So dumb.

 

12z GFS yesterday

 

12z GFS today

 

Out of the 12z, 18z, 00z, 06z, and today's 12z GFS runs they all show the low coming onshore somewhere between Coos Bay and Florence, except for the 00z which had it coming onshore around the OR/CA border. Of the other 4 runs today's 12z was the furthest south.

[TT-SEA]

Out of the 12z, 18z, 00z, 06z, and today's 12z GFS runs they all show the low coming onshore somewhere between Coos Bay and Florence, except for the 00z which had it coming onshore around the OR/CA border. Of the other 4 runs today's 12z was the furthest south.

 

OK Andrew... a few more hours of denial.     Enjoy.  

 

And keep mocking me about wanting more snow too... that is totally accurate.  

[Requiem]

OK Andrew... a few more hours of denial.     Enjoy.  

 

And keep mocking me about wanting more snow too... that is totally accurate.  

I think we get it, Seattle (and by extension) your area will be slammed again. But the world be damned if I lose all hope so early.

[TT-SEA]

I think we get it, Seattle (and by extension) your area will be slammed again. But the world be damned if I lose all hope so early.

 

I am still holding out a little hope for you... and by extension me.   

[Requiem]

I am still holding out a little hope for you... and by extension me.   

And even if the snow does hit your area, just remember that you are relishing in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity! Even with the added struggle of missed appointments and nasty commutes.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z JMA is on the southern train for Monday. Then it looks like another system comes in on Wednesday.

 

[BLI snowman]

Out of the 12z, 18z, 00z, 06z, and today's 12z GFS runs they all show the low coming onshore somewhere between Coos Bay and Florence, except for the 00z which had it coming onshore around the OR/CA border. Of the other 4 runs today's 12z was the furthest south.

 

I pointed this out to Tim a couple pages back and he promptly ignored it. His trolling is pretty obvious at this point. Best to ignore it.

[TT-SEA]

I pointed this out to Tim a couple pages back and he promptly ignored it. His trolling is pretty obvious at this point. Best to ignore it.

 

Yep... I am trolling myself obviously. Pointing out obvious trends toward a scenario that I do not want.

 

I will bring this post up again after the 00Z runs. I know where this going... but I will also happily call myself out if I am wrong.

[Requiem]

 

Yep... I trolling myself obviously. Pointing out obvious trends toward a scenario that I do not want.

 

I will bring this post up again after the 00Z runs. I know where this going... but I will also happily call myself out if I am wrong.

I hope you are so wrong and will celebrate if you are, and I think you do too!

[MossMan]

I am wishcasting another foot for my location!

[TT-SEA]

I hope you are so wrong and will celebrate if you are, and I think you do too!

I will be ruthless on myself and love it if I am wrong.

 

I promise.

[Requiem]

I will be ruthless on myself and love it if I am wrong.

 

I promise.

Don’t be, I’ll thank and congratulate you. I really want this, and the scenario you are predicting is a very real and very plausible one. I just really hope it doesn’t pan out.

[MossMan]

It’s almost comical seeing people freak out about Tim’s posts! Nothing has changed from the early Yahoo/OFA forum days of the early 2000’s!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New update from Steve Pierce on his Facebook page.

 

LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE???

11:30AM THURSDAY

 

As one of the coldest February's in years continues, models are once again indicating the possibility of low elevation snow late in the weekend and into early next week.

 

Cold air from Eastern Washington is forecast to once again be pulled through the Columbia River Gorge ahead of a system that is forecast to track across Oregon Sunday night and Monday. The exact track of the system will determine the chances for valley snow. Models will come into better agreement as the weekend approaches. The mountains will continue to pick up more snow over the next week.

 

Stay with the KOIN 6 weather team for the latest updates on the "potential" for late-season low elevation snow.

 

Steve Pierce

KOIN 6 Meteorologist

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am wishcasting another foot for my location!

Mid 40's

[HighlandExperience]

It will be interesting to see what Mark Nelsen says.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty much when you get down to it Deweydog is to blame for the north trend.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

 

Feels like the sun has trended north.

 

Sign of things to come??????????

[Requiem]

I don’t think things are so bad. Things have been very drastically south, as well as dangerously north. East wind seems to be a constant on most model runs. We’ll wait and see.

[Perturbed Member]

 

Yep... I am trolling myself obviously. Pointing out obvious trends toward a scenario that I do not want.

 

I will bring this post up again after the 00Z runs. I know where this going... but I will also happily call myself out if I am wrong.

 

There is a clear northward trend on the FV3 and what also looks to be a northward trend on the ECMWF. However it is completely false to say the other models are also trending north. This is simply not the case with the GFS (which has actually been the most consistent), GEM, ICON or NAM. This event may or may not end up much further north, but to say everything is trending north is simply not true. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM coming in a bit south of the 12z GFS

 

[Deweydog]

I don’t think things are so bad. Things have been very drastically south, as well as dangerously north. East wind seems to be a constant on most model runs. We’ll wait and see.

Tim is probably right. But he could be wrong.

[Perturbed Member]

This is kind of interesting for the weekend

 

[Guest Sounder]

18z NAM coming in a bit south of the 12z GFS

 

Nuh uh, it's going to go north. The weenies on here said so.

[Requiem]

Nuh uh, it's going to go north. The weenies on here said so.

Well, it is. Regardless of what happens, the sun angles dictate a clear evaporation of any snow in a certain warm nose.

[Front Ranger]

Every man/model/trend for themselves!!!

[Bryant]

People desperately clinging onto the models that show what they want to see in their backyard... model fight!

 

Never a good sign when the Euro isn't on your side

[Requiem]

People desperately clinging onto the models that show what they want to see in their backyard... model fight!

 

Never a good sign when the Euro isn't on your side

Granted, the EURO and EPS were on Portland’s side for a bit after other models had dropped out two weeks ago. The operational has kinda been drifting the past week or two.

[Jesse]

People desperately clinging onto the models that show what they want to see in their backyard... model fight!

 

Never a good sign when the Euro isn't on your side

True. Today’s Euro snowmaps were absolute heartbreakers for Portland.