February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Perturbed Member]

I know what you mean.  It seems like being at ground zero four days out is often the kiss of death in the end.

 

Yeah, I mean I can't give any real rational explanation for that. It seems like some superstition but all of us who follow these models know that you're probably screwed if you're in the sweet spot a few days before the expected event. Probably why TWL isn't too excited yet. 

[Jesse]

As long as that massive (eventually to be cutoff) block remains over Alaska things could change on very short notice.  Sometimes full latitude blocks reassemble with a big cutoff floating around.  It's not impossible we could see the block hold together much longer than currently expected next week.  Not likely, but can't be ruled out.

 

Most models besides the Euro have been showing just that. I think the Euro might be a little too aggressive with the warm up in the 6-10 day range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most models besides the Euro have been showing just that. I think the Euro might be a little too aggressive with the warm up in the 6-10 day range.

 

I agree. Typically I would trust the EURO, but it has been flailing like a sinking ship the past couple of weeks since its total meltdown two weeks ago. Hard to see such a great model struggle so much. Seriously though, no reason to give it any more weight than any other model right now.

[Deweydog]

I think the KSEA forecast discussion would clear this right up...

[MossMan]

I think the KSEA forecast discussion would clear this right up...

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

852 PM PST Wed Feb high sun angles 2019

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...High pressure aloft

offshore and low level northeasterly offshore flow will bring dry

weather through Thursday. Skies have become mostly clear which

should allow for some patchy fog Thursday morning. The clearing

should also allow for lows to drop into the mid to upper 20s many

locations tonight. Thursday should be mostly sunny but highs will

still be a little below normal.

 

A frontal system will bring another round of rain on Friday. Snow

levels will be low and precipitation might start as snow or a

rain/snow mix in some locations. Low level flow will be southerly

however so any snow should change to rain and lowland

accumulations are not expected at this time.

 

Showers will linger on Friday night behind the front, mainly over

the mountains and in a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. There could

be some low elevation snow in the convergence zone but any

accumulations would be very localized. A broad cool upper trough

will be over the area on Saturday for a continued chance of

showers with low snow levels. Schneider

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Previous discussion...A

few showers will linger into Sunday as the cool upper level low

slowly exits. Shower activity is mainly isolated to scattered, but

as mentioned above, we may see a rain/snow mix at higher

elevations. The air mass starts to dry out again as we move toward

Monday, while offshore flow strengthens. But this sets us up for

the next round of lowlands snow, possibly Tuesday or Tuesday

night. By then we have moisture moving up from the south with a

warm front while the low level air mass will remain cool enough

for snow. The models are not exactly aligned so overall confidence

remains low. The ECMWF is drier compared to the GFS at this

point. We`ll see how this pans out over future solutions. Looking

further ahead, a warmer system may bring higher snow levels and

warmer conditions toward the middle of the week - back to rain in

the lowlands. 33

 

There you go Matt! Clear anything up for you?

[Deweydog]

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

852 PM PST Wed Feb high sun angles 2019

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...High pressure aloft

offshore and low level northeasterly offshore flow will bring dry

weather through Thursday. Skies have become mostly clear which

should allow for some patchy fog Thursday morning. The clearing

should also allow for lows to drop into the mid to upper 20s many

locations tonight. Thursday should be mostly sunny but highs will

still be a little below normal.

 

A frontal system will bring another round of rain on Friday. Snow

levels will be low and precipitation might start as snow or a

rain/snow mix in some locations. Low level flow will be southerly

however so any snow should change to rain and lowland

accumulations are not expected at this time.

 

Showers will linger on Friday night behind the front, mainly over

the mountains and in a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. There could

be some low elevation snow in the convergence zone but any

accumulations would be very localized. A broad cool upper trough

will be over the area on Saturday for a continued chance of

showers with low snow levels. Schneider

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Previous discussion...A

few showers will linger into Sunday as the cool upper level low

slowly exits. Shower activity is mainly isolated to scattered, but

as mentioned above, we may see a rain/snow mix at higher

elevations. The air mass starts to dry out again as we move toward

Monday, while offshore flow strengthens. But this sets us up for

the next round of lowlands snow, possibly Tuesday or Tuesday

night. By then we have moisture moving up from the south with a

warm front while the low level air mass will remain cool enough

for snow. The models are not exactly aligned so overall confidence

remains low. The ECMWF is drier compared to the GFS at this

point. We`ll see how this pans out over future solutions. Looking

further ahead, a warmer system may bring higher snow levels and

warmer conditions toward the middle of the week - back to rain in

the lowlands. 33

 

There you go Matt! Clear anything up for you?

No marine or hydro section???

[Bryant]

No marine or hydro section???

Does your wife approve of your attempted humor? Or do you only give us the pleasure of seeing it? 

[MikeInEverett]

Extremely disrespectful to the boaters of the forum to not post the marine or hydro section!

[Deweydog]

Does your wife approve of your attempted humor? Or do you only give us the pleasure of seeing it?

Does Barry Manilow know you raid his wardrobe?

 

(four bonus points if you can name the movie w/o internet assistance)

[Requiem]

Does Barry Manilow know you raid his wardrobe?

 

(four bonus points if you can name the movie w/o internet assistance)

This one’s from that one movie- The Luncheon Clique, correct?

[MossMan]

No marine or hydro section???

My apologies! See below!

 

.AVIATION...An upper ridge offshore will provide dry northerly

flow aloft through Thursday. At the surface, northeasterly

offshore flow will increase tonight as high pressure builds into

southern British Columbia. Offshore flow will ease later Thursday

as the high pressure over British Columbia weakens and moves off

to the southeast. The air mass is dry and stable.

 

The air dried out earlier today with most clouds dissipating.

There will be a few patches of low clouds floating around tonight

but generally it will be mostly clear. The clear skies should

allow for some patchy fog Thursday morning in the usual valley

locations.

 

KSEA...Mostly clear skies. Northerly wind 5-10 knots. Schneider

 

&&

 

.MARINE...There will be a brief period of Fraser outflow tonight

and Thursday morning as high pressure builds into southern British

Columbia. West to northwest swell 10-12 feet will subside Thursday

and Thursday night.

 

High pressure over British Columbia will move off to the southeast

on Thursday with low level flow turning southerly Thursday night

ahead of an approaching frontal system.

 

The aforementioned frontal system will move through the area on

Friday with weak low pressure over the area on Saturday.

Northeasterly offshore flow will develop on Sunday and peak around

Monday morning as high pressure builds over British Columbia and

a surface low move onshore over Oregon. Schneider

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM PST Thursday

for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To

60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville

10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape

Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville

To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

 

Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 8 AM PST Thursday for

Grays Harbor Bar.

 

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters

From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters

From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm.

 

Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Central U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters

Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The

San Juan Islands.

 

&&

 

 

 

www.weather.gov/seattle

[luvssnow_spokane]

Extremely disrespectful to the boaters of the forum to not post the marine or hydro section!

Boaters lives matter too.

[MossMan]

Boaters lives matter too.

I have included the aviation section for all of the “above the frayers”

[MossMan]

Temp has been stuck at 29.2 for the last few hours...must be the higher moon angles.

[ShawniganLake]

Temp has been stuck at 29.2 for the last few hours...must be the higher moon angles.

It's been 30 here since just after sunset. Just enough of a breeze to keep the temp up.

[Cloud]

Highs Wednesday... more evidence of the ECMWF accounting for snow cover despite warmer air aloft.

 

Huh... “warm”. — sure it may be slightly warmer compared with what we dealt with earlier in the month, but it certainly isn’t “warm” compared to normal. This is still 7-8 degrees below normal for Seattle.

 

I know you wish for it to “warm” up but it is what it is right now with the current pattern. Still WELL below normal.

[Cloud]

I honestly hope PDX score with some snow before this pattern fade away.... but not an ice storm man.. that is not fun or enjoyable at all.

[Jesse]

EPS looking colder than the operational Monday-Thursday. Really the entire run beyond day 4 looks colder.

[Blizzard777]

Temp has been stuck at 29.2 for the last few hours...must be the higher moon angles.

I’m still stuck at 36*

[Perturbed Member]

I honestly hope PDX score with some snow before this pattern fade away.... but not an ice storm man.. that s**t is not fun or enjoyable at all.

 

Thanks, I think we have our best shot of the season potentially. PDX is so much better with an overrunning event with a SW low since it really gets the gorge involved and that is when this place can actually shine. I hope we can come away with something so that this pattern will be a bit more memorable down here too.

[TT-SEA]

Huh... “warm”. — sure it may be slightly warmer compared with what we dealt with earlier in the month, but it certainly isn’t “warm” compared to normal. This is still 7-8 degrees below normal for Seattle.

 

I know you wish for it to “warm” up but it is what it is right now with the current pattern. Still WELL below normal.

Does anybody read or just reflectively attack me? I said DESPITE warmer air ALOFT.

 

The map before showed ABOVE normal 850mb temps that day for the first time in a long time. And yet... the surface map showed evidence of taking into account snow cover.

 

Where did I say it was warm at the surface?

[Perturbed Member]

06z ICON, uh oh the north trend is happening too early!

 

 

Deformation goes way north

 

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS is way north too

 

[TT-SEA]

06z GFS is way north too

 

Going to end up in Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

My statement was accurate. Overall, the Seattle area got owned by areas to the south and north from 2013-2018. That did not end in 2017-18.

 

Seattle WFO got .8" of snow in Feb 2018. SEA got 1". Meanwhile, PDX got 6.6".

 

I'd say 2018-19 has evened things out quite a bit, but it's still not fair to act like one huge storm in Jan 2017 for Portland area was the only reason Seattle area folks were feeling left out. Dewey also pointed this out to you a week or so ago.

 

Overall, the south valley is probably now most "due", in terms of being the area that has been left out the most, most recently.

 

Nobody did "well" in 2012-13, 2014-15, or 2015-16. Seattle missing out in those years hardly made them special.

[Brennan]

Will end up north of Vancouver Island and a windstorm for Western Washington. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=pqr&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

 

Interesting and complex pattern for the next few days. Battle of jet streams.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the valley Salem-south is stuck in the gunk. Clear up here and 25.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These models are so inconsistent, but the 06z runs were definitely ominous!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS works out just fine for PDX, but there is that saying you don't want to be right in the target zone a few days out...

 

[FroYoBro]

Seems like it really cleared out after 3 am. It was 34, now down to 29.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 06 FV3 also trended a little North. The low still makes landfall along the Southern Oregon Coast.

 

[crf450ish]

Warmer air has arrived by Wednesday on the 00Z ECMWF...

 

I hope this verifies as the beginning of the inevitable warm up leading into spring. I've had my fill of winter. It was pleasant the first few days then it just wouldn't stop snowing over here. It has snowed every Fu***** day here since January 23. Done!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06 FV3 also trended a little North. The low still makes landfall along the Southern Oregon Coast.

 

 

Let's zero in on this Cape Blanco landfall...

 

Kind of dumb so many places in the valley stayed socked in the low clouds. Wonder how persistent they will be today. Totally clear and now down to 24 up here. Coldest low since the 10th. 

[El_Nina]

There's lots of school delays this morning on the east side.

[Requiem]

I swear...

 

This thing’s gonna end up in Seattle like everything else. At least it isn’t horribly marginal like the others have been.

[MossMan]

That is one heck of a PNA dive for next week.

[MossMan]

NWS Seattle is saying basically that we are now too late in the season for any meaningful snowfall and that we are just likely to see a mix at times. Definitely nothing historic or even somewhat exciting.

 

They obviously don’t remember some of the great late February/early March snowfalls.

[Guest CulverJosh]

That is one heck of a PNA dive for next week.

Beginnings of a la nina perhaps?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON coming in slightly further south through hour 84 lol.