Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

What did you end up seeing? What is average for you right now?

 

Ended up at 31. Average is around 40.

[Black Hole]

Ended up at 31. Average is around 40.

Still a freeze then.

 

Longer range is looking interesting with some decent storms possible. A few models hinting at borderline snow again so we will see. 

[Black Hole]

Windy tonight, gusting to about 35 mph or so. 

Looks like a lot of rain just to my north tomorrow but I should do ok as well. Maybe 1/2" or so coming for me. No snow still, but a freeze may be possible for me on Thursday morning. 

[luminen]

80F at DIA at 11am today and 81.2F where I used to live. Looks like a nice, warm, sunny week coming up... 

[Front Ranger]

80F at DIA at 11am today and 81.2F where I used to live. Looks like a nice, warm, sunny week coming up... 

 

It's disgusting. I hate weather this warm in mid October.

[Scott]

14F at my house yesterday (October 20).   It was nothing unusual for the time of year, but the coldest reading so far this season.

[Front Ranger]

Temps around 80 today. Not cool, not fall-like.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Temps around 80 today. Not cool, not fall-like.

It was 100 here last Thursday.

[Black Hole]

Plenty warm here too lately. 77F at my place today with no chance of a freeze in the next 10 days. Should be rainy at times the next week at least. 

[Scott]

Nice.

 

The earliest measurable snowfall for DEN is 4.2" on 9/3/61. 

 

For Boulder, it's 9/10/1898. But the most impressive Sep snowstorm by far is 9/17-18, 1971, with 21" in Boulder.

 

If you are interested, Denver had a reported July snow once, but back in 1872:

 

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2015/07/17/this-date-in-weather-history-snow-in-denver-in-july/

 

Since it is from the Signal Corps (who would take very detailed weather records, it is probably legitimate).  Of course, nothing similar has been recorded since then and it was a very freak event.  

 

I know the warmth has been legitimate, but are there any nearby stations with less UHI changes to compare to SLC? 

 

 

It has definitely been a state-wide phenomenon, including in the rural areas (the Salt Lake International Airport itself should be fairly safe from UHI since there isn't any urban development out there, which isn't true at places like the Triad Center Station).   Utah really hasn't had a severe winter cold snap since December 1990.  Since the 70's there haven't been that many severe cold snaps in the state.   There were some really severe statewide cold snaps in February 1989 and December 1990, and then some slightly less severe (state wide) ones in 1984 and 1982, but other than that only a few scattered days (such as the extremely short one in February 1996).

 

Summer nights have been warmer in the state as well.  

 

In recent decades, there have been some very impressive cold waves in the United States (December 1989 and January 1994) for example, but the cold air didn't make it over the continental divide.   Several other cold snaps have filtered in over the Divide, but stayed east of the Wasatch.  

 

Inversions in rural Utah seem to be less frequent in recent decades (but still common), but that's not necessarily a bad thing and there have been some big exceptions.

 

Where I live in NW Colorado, we have definitely seen some mild winters and warmer summer nights as well.   There is no such thing as UHI anywhere close to here (also, our population has been shrinking not growing).   Still, we have seen some severe cold waves that missed the Wasatch Front (I recorded a -48 at my house in February 2011).

 

It is a well known cold spot here, but at the (rural) airport or near town stations at least, there have only two months that haven't dropped below zero.   One was February 2012 and the other 2015 (though it did drop below zero in March 2012).

 

Also, in 2012 and 2013, the July lows were only 42 and 45.   Such a thing has never happened before.   (Last July we had a 31 on July 12 though).

 

For whatever reason, as far as cold temperatures go, it has overall been exceptionally mild in Western Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and Southern Idaho in recent years.  In eastern Colorado, there have been more cold snaps in recent years (though a mild winter here is still colder than a cold winter in places like Denver).  

 

Black Hole, on 15 Sept 2016 - 10:09 AM, said:

This is a list of the earliest 10 snowfalls at the airport. Early in the year elevation and exact location are very important and so this list would change if you moved elsewhere in the valley. For example neither of the two snowfalls I mentioned show up on this chart.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa....now in Fall.pdf

 

Nice.

 

The earliest measurable snowfall for DEN is 4.2" on 9/3/61. 

 

For Boulder, it's 9/10/1898. But the most impressive Sep snowstorm by far is 9/17-18, 1971, with 21" in Boulder.

 

Salt Lake International Airport is in one of the lowest places in the Salt Lake Valley and 1000 feet lower than Denver.   The benches of Salt Lake are approximately the same elevation as Denver.

 

On the benches of Salt Lake City, there has been measurable snow  on June 16 and even on June 29 in a few places (such as Olympus Cove!).   Here is a news story mentioning the June 29 1968 event:

 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700026725/Think-snow-in-April-is-bad-Salt-Lake-once-had-snow-in-July.html?pg=all

 

Of course, June snow is extremely rare in the Salt Lake Valley.   I saw it twice, once on June 1 1990, just above Skyline High School and at our house in West Kearns on June 6 1995.  (Interestingly, the latest measurable snow at the airport was only a few years ago on May 24 2010).

 

In 1946, it snowed on the benches on September 16.   It snowed lightly at the Salt Lake Airport as well, but didn't stick.  This is the earliest event I know of, but there might be some earlier ones.

 

Unfortunately, there aren't many official weather stations on the benches.    Cottonwood Weir is at 4950 feet and the now defunct University of Utah station was at 4800, but they are lower than the real benches.

 

The City Creek Water Plant has a station at 5330 feet though.  In recent decades there was snow on measurable snow on June 7 1995 (the same snow that fell on our house in West Kearns) and on June 13 2001.  It has snowed there several times in September, including 6 inches on September 18 1978.

 

There was also a station at the mouth of Bingham Canyon.  The weather station only measured snowfall sporadically between December 1940 and October 1974.   At that station, there was at least an inch of snow as late as June 7 and snow as late as June 16.   Snow fell as early as September 18, but that's not any earlier than at the airport.

 

At an official weather station around Salt Lake, and not up at the ski resorts, Mountain Dell Dam at 5420 feet had measurable snow on July 6 1982.  I actually remember that event, even though I was a kid, because we were camped in a leaky tent at Dog Lake (between Mill Creek and Big Cottonwood) when it snowed.   The earliest it snowed at Mountain Dell was September 4 1924, but measurable snow was recorded on September 16 1965.

 

At Tooele, west of Salt Lake and at 4820 feet, in recent decades, one inch of snow was recorded on June 13 2001 and half an inch on June 6 1995.   It snowed as late as June 19 1939, but apparently didn't stick.  August 27 1937 supposedly snowed 3 inches, but this almost surely was really hail.  It was recorded as snow, but doesn't seem possible.   

 

One thing the benches around Salt Lake City lack is big snowstorms in September.    The benches did get up to 8 inches on September 30 1971, which might be the biggest September snowstorm in the Salt Lake Valley.  

 

Along the Colorado Front Range though, for example, Colorado Springs got an incredibly 27.9 inches of snow between September 28-30 1959.  Another 5.9 inches of snow fell on October 1-2, bringing the storm total to 33.8 inches.    The record snow depth for Colorado Springs is on October 1 1959, with 20 inches.   This may be the earliest record snow depth of any city in the lower 48.

 

 

[luminen]

86F/56F today at my old place in Denver. Yikes... 

[Front Ranger]

Great info, Scott. However, regarding SLC, the development of the airport itself has definitely led to increased warm bias.

[Black Hole]

Thanks for the info Scott. I do disagree on one point, and that is that something is definitely messing with the SLC airport readings. Most likely it is the addition of extra runways and general build up. There is major construction there right now I believe. The reading around the area have all been warm, but its been even warmer there. 

In other news, another warm day today at 72F. We had .20" last night and look to get some more rain tomorrow. Should cool down into the 60s at least but no cold weather coming anytime soon. 

[Black Hole]

A batch of strong thunderstorms moved over my house last night. I had .79" from that, with about .6" in 1 hour. Lots of wind and lightning too. My October total will be 1.76".

Cooler today with a high close to normal, still looking at a few showers tomorrow as well.

[Front Ranger]

A batch of strong thunderstorms moved over my house last night. I had .79" from that, with about .6" in 1 hour. Lots of wind and lightning too. My October total will be 1.76".

 

Cooler today with a high close to normal, still looking at a few showers tomorrow as well.

 

Lucky. Only 2 days with rain and a grand total of .16" here this month. One of the driest and warmest Octobers on record for this area.

[Black Hole]

Lucky. Only 2 days with rain and a grand total of .16" here this month. One of the driest and warmest Octobers on record for this area.

Most areas have had much less, the airport had I think .96" for the month. Sounds pretty awful for you. This will be one of the warmest on record for me too, but at least we had rain. No snow anytime soon. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like DEN ends up with warmest October since 1950, second warmest on record. At least it wasn't December or January.

[Black Hole]

Looks like DEN ends up with warmest October since 1950, second warmest on record. At least it wasn't December or January.

Do you know of any good analogs for us given the pattern progression? This year has reminded me of pieces of certain years like 2007, but has deviated enough at this point that I am not so sure. 

[Front Ranger]

Do you know of any good analogs for us given the pattern progression? This year has reminded me of pieces of certain years like 2007, but has deviated enough at this point that I am not so sure. 

 

2010, 1992, and 1983 stick out to me.

 

As far as older years 1953 and 1956 also seem like decent matches.

[Black Hole]

2010, 1992, and 1983 stick out to me.

 

As far as older years 1953 and 1956 also seem like decent matches.

I wouldn't mind that list. Lots of fun events in there. Only one of those I was here for was 2010. That was also a VERY warm fall until the floor fell out in the late November blast. 

[Front Ranger]

I wouldn't mind that list. Lots of fun events in there. Only one of those I was here for was 2010. That was also a VERY warm fall until the floor fell out in the late November blast. 

 

I definitely don't want a 2010-11 repeat. Worst winter I've experienced here by far. Only 33" of snow, no good storms until February. 

 

1992-93 was good, mainly due to an epic November (almost 40" around here). 1983-84 was also quite good, with a very nice Nov/Dec.

 

The two 1950s analogs were decent but not great. April 1957 did have a massive snowstorm, with 2-3' across the area.

[Black Hole]

Not one of the 51 ECMWF ensembles has even a trace of snow for me in the next 15 days. That's pretty astonishing for this time of year. 

[Scott]

I definitely don't want a 2010-11 repeat. Worst winter I've experienced here by far. Only 33" of snow, no good storms until February. 

 

 

It sure was a good snow year in the mountains of Colorado though (except for in the far south).   It was a record year in many locations.  Tower SNOTEL/Buffalo Pass had the all time Colorado snowpack record with 200+ inches of snow on the ground with a water equivalent of 79.8 inches on May 28, remarkably late in the year.

 

 

[Black Hole]

Any thoughts on whether Denver will break its record for latest snowfall this year (11/21)?

Next ten days look snowless, so you will definitely be close. Beyond that, I am not sure.

 

We are coming up on our latest freeze on record in SLC, which is 11/16. I feel pretty confident we will get at least close, and could break it if we don't see any cool troughs. 

[Black Hole]

I definitely don't want a 2010-11 repeat. Worst winter I've experienced here by far. Only 33" of snow, no good storms until February. 

 

1992-93 was good, mainly due to an epic November (almost 40" around here). 1983-84 was also quite good, with a very nice Nov/Dec.

 

The two 1950s analogs were decent but not great. April 1957 did have a massive snowstorm, with 2-3' across the area.

That winter did have some long boring stretches, but at least there was usually snow on the ground. Mountains around here did quite well overall. 

[Front Ranger]

It sure was a good snow year in the mountains of Colorado though (except for in the far south).   It was a record year in many locations.  Tower SNOTEL/Buffalo Pass had the all time Colorado snowpack record with 200+ inches of snow on the ground with a water equivalent of 79.8 inches on May 28, remarkably late in the year.

 

 

 

Yeah, I remember the northern mountains and WY getting a lot of snow that winter. Often the best snow years for the mountains aren't that great here. We need upslope storms!

[Black Hole]

Seeing signs of change potentially in the week two period. Plenty of spread and uncertainty, so at least there is hope! 

[Phil]

Next ten days look snowless, so you will definitely be close. Beyond that, I am not sure.

 

We are coming up on our latest freeze on record in SLC, which is 11/16. I feel pretty confident we will get at least close, and could break it if we don't see any cool troughs.

You guys haven't had a freeze yet?? Holy smokes.

 

When does your first freeze typically occur?

[Black Hole]

You guys haven't had a freeze yet?? Holy smokes.

 

When does your first freeze typically occur?

Things change pretty quick around here from hot to cold but average is Oct 19th, so well past that. Average first snow is Nov 8th so we are about to miss that mark too. 

 

If we get to Nov 16th without a freeze it will also be the longest stretch between freezes on record. 

 

Either way models moving towards a cold front with snow possible in 10-12 days, but certainly time for that to change. 

[Black Hole]

My 1000th post!

 

All three deterministic models and most ensembles showing some kind of snow and cold weather around the 18th. Still a long ways to go but there is hope still. 

[Scott]

We are coming up on our latest freeze on record in SLC, which is 11/16. I feel pretty confident we will get at least close, and could break it if we don't see any cool troughs. 

 

 

It looks like SLC will definitely break the record.  At the airport at least, the record is November 14 and there are no frost foretasted through at least the 16th.

 

There are many places that have already broken the record.   For example, Minneapolis hasn't had a frost at the airport yet.  

 

Here are some other records that have been broken or might be broken soon:

 

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/latest-first-freeze-records-midwest

 

As for us, we had our first frost in town on September 10, which is only a few days late.    Our latest frost this year in town was July 12, so our frost free period was actually shorter than normal.

 

At my house, on the outskirts of town, we also had our last frost on July 12, but my first one was at August 13 (it was 35 at the official station in town), which is a bit shorter than normal (though I have only lived here for 12 years) for the frost free period.

 

That said, we haven't had a temperature below 18 yet.   That is extremely unusual and may be the only time that has happened (I'll do some checking this evening).   At the official station, we are running 7.4 degrees above normal for the month and it has been extremely warm with record breaking temperatures.   We haven't had any snow either, which is very unusual.   Yesterday we hit 68, which is the 2nd latest that we have ever seen a temperature this warm.   We also had an above freezing low temperature in November as well, which is pretty uncommon. 

 

http://images.summitpost.org/original/987487.JPG

[Black Hole]

It looks like SLC will definitely break the record.  At the airport at least, the record is November 14 and there are no frost foretasted through at least the 16th.

 

There are many places that have already broken the record.   For example, Minneapolis hasn't had a frost at the airport yet.  

 

Here are some other records that have been broken or might be broken soon:

 

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/latest-first-freeze-records-midwest

 

As for us, we had our first frost in town on September 10, which is only a few days late.    Our latest frost this year in town was July 12, so our frost free period was actually shorter than normal.

 

At my house, on the outskirts of town, we also had our last frost on July 12, but my first one was at August 13 (it was 35 at the official station in town), which is a bit shorter than normal (though I have only lived here for 12 years) for the frost free period.

 

That said, we haven't had a temperature below 18 yet.   That is extremely unusual and may be the only time that has happened (I'll do some checking this evening).   At the official station, we are running 7.4 degrees above normal for the month and it has been extremely warm with record breaking temperatures.   We haven't had any snow either, which is very unusual.   Yesterday we hit 68, which is the 2nd latest that we have ever seen a temperature this warm.   We also had an above freezing low temperature in November as well, which is pretty uncommon. 

 

Yeah it is looking like we will either barely break by one day or tie those records with a cold front late Wednesday. 

 

Looking like a pretty dramatic front with temperatures plunging about 40F over maybe 12 hours. The high on Thursday might be 35F less than Wednesday if all goes well. Some snow seems likely, but I am not sure yet if its just a trace or a few inches. 

[Black Hole]

Some of this afternoons models are going big with snow. Both the 12 and 18z GFS would give me 12-18" at my house, and 6-12" at the airport. 

[Jesse]

Some of this afternoons models are going big with snow. Both the 12 and 18z GFS would give me 12-18" at my house, and 6-12" at the airport.

On what day?

[Black Hole]

On what day?

This is Thursday morning through Friday morning, maybe a 30 hour window. 

[Jesse]

This is Thursday morning through Friday morning, maybe a 30 hour window.

Nice. So getting closer to the believable range.

[Black Hole]

Nice. So getting closer to the believable range.

The thing is, models were showing hardly anything yesterday. Today they slowed the system down and strengthened it which really boosted totals. I would say I am pretty confident we get something but things have shifted enough that its hard to say if we will actually score big or not. Either way, I am hopeful after the blowtorch we have been seeing.

 

This will be our first freeze lol 

[Scott]

Now for some post election humor from some of the locals around here (Steamboat ski resort), but very weather related:

 

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/12/steamboat-protesters-more-snow-less-hate/

 

[Front Ranger]

Seriously. Looks like we finally get a decent mountain storm from the same system Black Hole is tracking.

[Black Hole]

GFS seems to have backed off on the really heavy stuff, but most models going for 2-4" now and thats fine. Just want to see something!