April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF continues to look troughy early next week... but the result is beautiful weather here.     Really cold to the east in Montana starting this weekend and beyond though.

 

 

[Jesse]

Coolish and dry during a time of year where dry usually means big warm anomalies. Seems like the kind of spring pattern Jim has been hoping for.

[TT-SEA]

Strange to see a ULL heading by us to the north late next week going from east to west and then turning to the NW (on the 12Z ECMWF)

 

High latitude blocking is the cause.   It also does not carry much moisture with it when it comes from the middle of the continent.  

[TacomaWaWx]

52 and filtered sunshine. A touch cooler than yesterday due to the high clouds but sun still feels nice. Cool north breeze here mitigating that warmth a bit however as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61 and very comfortable with lightly filtered sunshine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really astonishing how dry the models are. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ECMWF continues to look troughy early next week... but the result is beautiful weather here. Really cold to the east in Montana starting this weekend and beyond though.

 

 

Nice and sunny!

[Front Ranger]

Really astonishing how dry the models are. 

 

You called it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Really astonishing how dry the models are.

Hopefully this doesn’t end up being the beginning of another dry summer starting in late April again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You called it. 

 

I did. Kudos to me. I do think we have a shot at a wet back half of May though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Blast furnace will be in the cards any day now...

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully this doesn’t end up being the beginning of another dry summer starting in late April again.

 

 

Interesting... have not heard that opinion here.    

 

Most people in western WA worry about summer being too long.   Its like 80% of the year here in southern California.    

[TT-SEA]

I did. Kudos to me. I do think we have a shot at a wet back half of May though. 

 

 

Maybe even a wet middle of May.    EPS keeps hinting at a more consolidate jet in the long range.

 

 

[MossMan]

I for one am quite happy that things are looking to dry out a bit...Will give me a chance to get my major drainage project done without completely nuking my yard.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

You called it. 

 

 

As Dewey says... dry periods tend to follow wet periods and vice versa. 

 

It rained on 21 out of the first 24 days of April here... which is unusually persistently wet even here.   A drier period was almost inevitable.   And the past 6 months have been very streaky in that regard... this shows no signs of changing.

[Jesse]

I for one am quite happy that things are looking to dry out a bit...Will give me a chance to get my major drainage project done without completely nuking my yard.

Wow, crazy stuff. I thought for sure you’d be sad about it.

[Front Ranger]

I did. Kudos to me. I do think we have a shot at a wet back half of May though. 

 

Please refrain from using alt-right slurs here, thanks.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, crazy stuff. I thought for sure you’d be sad about it.

 

As it turns out, the opinions around here tend to be quite stable, persistent, and predictable.

 

Unlike the weather!!!     

[TacomaWaWx]

Interesting... have not heard that opinion here.

 

Most people in western WA worry about summer being too long. Its like 80% of the year here in southern California.

I love warm summer days but I’d like there to be average rainfall this summer. Just a couple of rainy days is all I’m hoping for.

[TT-SEA]

I love warm summer days but I’d like there to be average rainfall this summer. Just a couple of rainy days is all I’m hoping for.

 

 

Me too!  

 

We agree.  

[Jesse]

As Dewey says... dry periods tend to follow wet periods and vice versa.

 

It rained on 21 out of the first 24 days of April here... which is unusually persistently wet even here. A drier period was almost inevitable. And the past 6 months have been very streaky in that regard... this shows no signs of changing.

Dewey’s snarky oversimplifications sort of break down during stretches like the last year and a half or so, though.

 

For the Portland area starting in 2018: Average January, dry February, dry March, near average April, record dry May, dry June, dry July, dry August, near average September, near average October, dry November, near average December, dry January, wet February, very dry March, near average April, record dry May.

 

Sometimes dry spells give way to more dry spells. And it can last for much longer than a seasonal cycle. Might even out for the long term but that doesn’t matter for areas in the midst of gripping drought, the frequency of which will only increase with climate change.

[Front Ranger]

I love warm summer days but I’d like there to be average rainfall this summer. Just a couple of rainy days is all I’m hoping for.

 

Long term climo says SEA should get 5 rainy (.10"+) days in May, 4 in June, 2 in July, 3 in August, and 5 in September.

[Front Ranger]

Dewey’s snarky oversimplifications sort of break down during stretches like the last year and a half or so, though.

 

For the Portland area starting in 2018: Average January, dry February, dry March, near average April, record dry May, dry June, dry July, dry August, near average September, near average October, dry November, near average December, dry January, wet February, very dry March, near average April, record dry May.

 

Sometimes dry spells give way to more dry spells. And it can last for much longer than a seasonal cycle. Might even out for the long term but that doesn’t matter for areas in the midst of gripping drought, the frequency of which will only increase with climate change.

 

Debatable. Just ask Phil.

[Jesse]

Debatable. Just ask Phil.

Well the proof is in the pudding this decade so far. Rainier cool seasons but persistent warm season drought. I guess we’ll see if that changes at all moving forward.

[TT-SEA]

Dewey’s snarky oversimplifications sort of break down during stretches like the last year and a half or so, though.

 

For the Portland area starting in 2018: Average January, dry February, dry March, near average April, record dry May, dry June, dry July, dry August, near average September, near average October, dry November, near average December, dry January, wet February, very dry March, near average April, record dry May.

 

Sometimes dry spells give way to more dry spells. And it can last for much longer than a seasonal cycle. Might even out for the long term but that doesn’t matter for areas in the midst of gripping drought, the frequency of which will only increase with climate change.

 

 

Where is this gripping drought now?   You need to update your fear mongering tactics.   

 

We have seen MASSIVE improvements across most of the western US in the last 6 months.   And hard-hit Oregon ended up being the epicenter for rain and snow recently. 

 

I guess it shows abnormally dry up here because January - March were dry.   Its not dry now... that is for sure.   And yellow is not drought on this map.   I am sure there will always be some yellow on this map somewhere.   There is almost no actual drought anywhere across the western US now.

 

[Jesse]

Kind of hazy sunshine today, and a little too warm. Yesterday was prettier, a visually stunning day. I’ll be happy when a cooler airmass moves back in the next few days.

[Front Ranger]

Tim's post was accurate. The drought situation in the West is actually the best it's been in a long time, at least currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Please refrain from using alt-right slurs here, thanks.

 

Typical liberal seeing racism in everything.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's post was accurate. The drought situation in the West is actually the best it's been in a long time, at least currently.

 

 

Jesse is seemingly so consumed with crippling drought that he missed the part where the drought all but disappeared.  

 

There are like 5 or 6 counties in the entire western US that are technically still in drought.  

[Jesse]

Jesse is seemingly so consumed with crippling drought that he missed the part where the drought all but disappeared.

 

There are like 5 or 6 counties in the entire western US that are technically still in drought.

The crippling drought comment was there for your benefit. It’s just fun to trigger you sometimes. Kind of like shooting fish in a barrel I guess.

 

If this summer ends up dry that drought will indeed come roaring back, though. And the ten day Euro has me thinking that’s what will happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse is seemingly so consumed with crippling drought that he missed the part where the drought all but disappeared.  

 

There are like 5 or 6 counties in the entire western US that are technically still in drought.  

 

Yeah I'm not worried about Drought. And from mid-June to Mid-September it almost never rains here. But I would like at least average rain through mid-June to help us not have another bad fire season.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah I'm not worried about Drought. And from mid-June to Mid-September it almost never rains here. But I would like at least average rain through mid-June to help us not have another bad fire season.

 

 

Me too!

 

We agree.  

[Jesse]

Yeah I'm not worried about Drought. And from mid-June to Mid-September it almost never rains here. But I would like at least average rain through mid-June to help us not have another bad fire season.

Pretty much where I’m at.

 

Would also be nice to have less in the way of persistent sun/heat this summer since I think that is playing as large a role in the ongoing tree dieoff as drought is (although the two are possibly linked). Not gonna hold my breath for now, though.

[TT-SEA]

It’s just fun to trigger you sometimes. Kind of like shooting fish in a barrel I guess.

 

If this summer ends up dry that drought will indeed come roaring back, though. And the ten day Euro has me thinking that’s what will happen.

 

 

So if it turns really dry then it will be really dry?   Interesting theory.    Pretty radical idea.  

 

Your delay and response was Phil-like... if you are wrong then just say you were trolling and never meant it.  

 

You were on a roll with that post... about how its always dry and nothing will ever be the same again.

[Jesse]

So if it turns really dry then it will be really dry? Interesting theory. Pretty radical idea.

 

Well as you can see from your drought maps much of Washington and northern Oregon is still on the knife’s edge. Would take less than usual to push them back into drought category this warm season.

[TT-SEA]

Well as you can see from your drought maps much of Washington and northern Oregon is still on the knife’s edge. Would take less than usual to push them back into drought category this warm season.

 

Its unbelievable here... I have given up trying to keep everything watered.   So scared.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much where I’m at.

 

Would also be nice to have less in the way of persistent sun/heat this summer since I think that is playing as large a role in the ongoing tree dieoff as drought is (although the two are possibly linked). Not gonna hold my breath for now, though.

 

Yeah big tree die offs especially in the lower foothills. My dad has a couple acres of Douglas Firs on the valley floor. Just driving by his place the other day it looked like some of them weren't doing so well. More firewood for me I guess.

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS looks very Tim-friendly with a ridge starting to form at about 7 days.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Unusually quiet here tonight. Weather must have become boring or it's really nice and people are out enjoying the long evenings.