April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Frosty morning

 

 

45 and still drizzling here.    Hoping the sun can make an appearance later.

[TacomaWaWx]

45 and still drizzling here. Hoping the sun can make an appearance later.

looks like it’s supposed to this afternoon. Go ahead and enjoy it looks cloudy but dry tomorrow. No drizzle here but 46 degrees and overcast.

[Kayla]

Chilly with a low of 38 this morning. Judging by the models, there is a good chance that the majority of lows the rest of the month will be sub-40 here.

 

Almost seems like we’re going back into a late-April/early May version of the cold and dry pattern we saw the first half of March. Strong GOA block much of the next 7-10 days.

 

Pretty crazy. Pattern just keeps reseting itself.

[Jesse]

Pretty crazy. Pattern just keeps reseting itself.

If we could keep up the trend of GOA blocking broken up by wet periods the rest of the warm season there would be no complaints here.

[Kayla]

If we could keep up the trend of GOA blocking broken up by wet periods the rest of the warm season there would be no complaints here.

 

It would be interesting to see stick around through the summer. Cool but likely quite dry.

[Kayla]

Euro shows about 18-22" of snow over the next 10 days in Bozeman. I'm not sure how I feel about this.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2z8unts.png

[TT-SEA]

Euro shows about 18-22" of snow over the next 10 days in Bozeman. I'm not sure how I feel about this.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2z8unts.png

 

 

Depressed?   Hard to appreciate snow in the winter if it goes through May and starts again in September.   

[Jesse]

It would be interesting to see stick around through the summer. Cool but likely quite dry.

Not if it was broken up by wet periods.

 

I don’t think we’ve seen a summer truly dominated by GOA ridging for years, so it’s probably pretty unlikely regardless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March stats are up for Silver Falls. First sub 20 minimum at the park since 1976. 

[Kayla]

Depressed?   Hard to appreciate snow in the winter if it goes until May and starts again in September.   

 

I'll always appreciate snow in the winter but yeah mid to late spring snow is more of nuisance and messy mess than anything else.

 

Summer will come eventually!

[Kayla]

Not if it was broken up by wet periods.

 

I don’t think we’ve seen a summer truly dominated by GOA ridging for years, so it’s probably pretty unlikely regardless.

 

If we learned anything this past February it's that climo has been thrown right out the window!

[Jesse]

If we learned anything this past February it's that climo has been thrown right out the window!

I tend to think of long term climo as a boomerang of sorts.

[TacomaWaWx]

If we learned anything this past February it's that climo has been thrown right out the window!

I honestly wasn’t sure if I’d see atleast 12 inches of snow on the ground here in Tacoma again after 2008. January 2012 was about 8 inches but big long lasting snows just weren’t happening anymore here. Finally happened and it really caught everyone off guard when all the sudden we went from worst snow season ever to one of the snowiest winters of the last 20 years with 18 inches on the ground here. 18 inches don’t seem like much to everyone out in Montana right now you guys are about to get as much snow as we got all winter lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly wasn’t sure if I’d see atleast 12 inches of snow on the ground here in Tacoma again after 2008. January 2012 was about 8 inches but big long lasting snows just weren’t happening anymore here. Finally happened and it really caught everyone off guard when all the sudden we went from worst snow season ever to one of the snowiest winters of the last 20 years with 18 inches on the ground here. 18 inches don’t seem like much to everyone out in Montana right now you guys are about to get as much snow as we got all winter lol.

 

January 2017 in Portland should have been a clue it was a possibility. 

[Requiem]

January 2017 in Portland should have been a clue it was a possibility.

That was an excellent event, I feel it was pretty similar to what Eugene got this year. Wet, heavy snow with intense rates.

[TacomaWaWx]

January 2017 in Portland should have been a clue it was a possibility.

well I knew it was a possibility. I just meant that it seemed unlikely this last winter leading up to February being that it had been somewhat warm and dry November through January. Takes a lot of things going just right to get a set up like we had this winter. I figured we would see snow events like 6-10 inch range again in the future but we had 20 inches of snow in 3 days here which seemed like something that was a thing of the past. There was 9 inches on 2/9 another 5 inches on 2/10 and then 6 more on 2/11. Also there was 2 inches on 2/4.

[TacomaWaWx]

That was an excellent event, I feel it was pretty similar to what Eugene got this year. Wet, heavy snow with intense rates.

Yeah I remember seeing the snow and being pretty jealous it only amounted to a couple flurries up here. Portland didn’t totally beat us that winter since we had some snow in December and then we had a pretty good snow event in February a month after that during super bowl 51. So it all evened out that winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That was an excellent event, I feel it was pretty similar to what Eugene got this year. Wet, heavy snow with intense rates.

 

Yes it was an incredible event that I didn't think was possible here anymore.  Basically a 1 in 50 chance event in a winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes it was an incredible event that I didn't think was possible here anymore. Basically a 1 in 50 chance event in a winter.

Took a lot of things to create the set up we had this winter. Reminder that winters that happened during the old days could still set up here. Overall things have been warmer this century than they were historically back in the 20th century besides a handful of winters over the last 20 years. We didn’t have any meaningful snowfall here from January 2012-February 2017. I think some of the last few winters being warmer overall has made us forget what can happen here. This winter was the best I’ve ever seen even more so than 2008 here locally. Only 18 inches fell that winter we had 20 inches in 3 days.

[ShawniganLake]

The ups and downs of a slowly warming climate.

[MossMan]

How much rain does your area get annually? It sure seems to be pretty dreary often. Far too cloudy and showery for my liking!

That is a good question! I will have to look that up. Yeah the PSCZ does make things more gray and wet here.

[Phil]

I'll always appreciate snow in the winter but yeah mid to late spring snow is more of nuisance and messy mess than anything else.

 

Summer will come eventually!

Famous last words!

 

FWIW, the snow never melted over a good chunk of the Canadian Archipelago last summer for the first time since 1985. I’m sure the Inuit population living up there was expecting a thaw as well. Oops.

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

Famous last words!

 

FWIW, the snow never melted over a good chunk of the Canadian Archipelago last summer for the first time since 1985. I’m sure the Inuit population living up there was expecting a thaw as well. Oops.

Would have been nice of you to have given them a heads up...

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks pretty troughy overall. I know, I know, it’s drier than the Gobi though...

[Front Ranger]

The ups and downs of a slowly warming climate.

Yep. Any given winter in a particular location is far more influenced by natural variables than climate change.

 

But with multi-decadal trends globally, climate change tends to be the strongest influence.

[Phil]

Would have been nice of you to have given them a heads up...

I did! Nobody else here was tracking that vortex like me.

[Phil]

Yep. Any given winter in a particular location is far more influenced by natural variables than climate change.

 

But with multi-decadal trends globally, climate change tends to be the strongest influence.

In regards to what?

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro looks pretty troughy overall. I know, I know, it’s drier than the Gobi though...

 

 

Total of .01 in the Portland area over the next 10 days.

 

Lots of sunshine... temps in the 60s.    Maybe a couple days around 70.

[TacomaWaWx]

54 and mostly sunny in tacoma as of 1pm. Beautiful day actually a little warm but a cool breeze still.

[TT-SEA]

54 and mostly sunny in tacoma as of 1pm. Beautiful day actually a little warm but a cool breeze still.

 

 

54 is not really warm.  

 

The sun always feels warm by this point in the year.   

[Phil]

54 is not really warm.

 

The sun always feels warm by this point in the year.

It’s still better than 94.

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day...

 

[Phil]

Sort of OT, but flashing warning lights are going off for a big time severe weather outbreak somewhere in the US during the 5/5 - 5/15 period, based on the state of the subseasonal AAM cycle and seasonal MJO phase shift with the upcoming WHEM cycle being the final trigger.

 

Been several years since the configuration has lined up this way. Possibly not since 2013 or even 2011/2012?

[Jesse]

Sort of OT, but flashing warning lights are going off for a big time severe weather outbreak somewhere in the US during the 5/5 - 5/15 period, based on the state of the subseasonal AAM cycle and seasonal MJO phase shift with the upcoming WHEM cycle being the final trigger.

 

Been several years since the configuration has lined up this way. Possibly not since 2013 or even 2011/2012?

Will this coincide with the development of a western ridge?

[TT-SEA]

Will this coincide with the development of a western ridge?

 

 

I believe that is usually associated with a deep western trough actually.

[Front Ranger]

In regards to what?

Temperature.

[TT-SEA]

The sun angle in Seattle today is exactly the same as it was in Kauai when we were there in February.     And we were golden brown when we left Hawaii.   

[TT-SEA]

Lovely evening...