April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Deweydog]

Wet/dry vacuums would not do well here.

 

DON’T celebrate diversity.

[Jesse]

Yeah big tree die offs especially in the lower foothills. My dad has a couple acres of Douglas Firs on the valley floor. Just driving by his place the other day it looked like some of them weren't doing so well. More firewood for me I guess.

We were down on the South Santiam River east of Sweet Home a few weeks ago. I would say one in every four Douglas firs were dead in some locations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS looks very Tim-friendly with a ridge starting to form at about 7 days.

 

Imagine that. 

[Omegaraptor]

Imagine that.

 

And would you look at the 00z. Even more Tim-friendly.

[Jesse]

And would you look at the 00z. Even more Tim-friendly.

 

The ridge front looks to last for several days over the region in the long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were down on the South Santiam River east of Sweet Home a few weeks ago. I would say one in every four Douglas firs were dead in some locations.

 

I haven't noticed it being that bad. 

[Omegaraptor]

Wonder if the heat wave will actually verify.

 

Again, hope we get some rain this May. I do not want a repeat of last year in the slightest.

[ShawniganLake]

April is likely to end up drier than normal here. Sitting at about 1/2” below average now.

[TT-SEA]

The ridge front looks to last for several days over the region in the long range.

 

And it shows 33.8 degrees in Decorah, Iowa at 7:13 p.m. CDT on Saturday.   

[Omegaraptor]

PDX April total is 2.97” which is just a little over average.

[TT-SEA]

Wonder if the heat wave will actually verify.

 

Again, hope we get some rain this May. I do not want a repeat of last year in the slightest.

 

You mean the upper 70s it shows at 384 hours which is almost the middle of May?   Lock it in.   Huge heat wave.  

[Omegaraptor]

You mean the upper 70s it shows at 384 hours which is almost the middle of May?   Lock it in.   Huge heat wave.  

No. The mid 80s for Portland at 216 hours.

[Jesse]

April is likely to end up drier than normal here. Sitting at about 1/2” below average now.

 

But North Bend is due for a dry spell so we all are.

[snow_wizard]

I am absolutley loving the looks of this clipper slated for Saturday.  Probably the sharpest one this late in the season in at least 10 years.  I am a huge fan of features like this in the "off" season.

 

At this point thicknesses are progged to plunge to 528 over Seattle Saturday morning with 850s crashing to -5.  High potential for frost / record lows in some places Sunday morning into early next week.  I actually had frost here this morning with a low of 35 and the weekend air mass is going to be a lot colder.

 

In other news chances now appear to be 50% or better of the Nino being over by late summer.  If next winter is neutral ENSO we have a highly elevated chance of a good winter.

[TT-SEA]

But North Bend is due for a dry spell so we all are.

 

I would say its more than North Bend that might be due for a period of drier weather.    As horrific as that sounds.

 

The entire state of Oregon might be due actually.

 

[snow_wizard]

No. The mid 80s for Portland at 216 hours.

 

No sign of it in the ensemble, but a flash of heat after the coming GOA block wouldn't be too unusual.

[Omegaraptor]

I am absolutley loving the looks of this clipper slated for Saturday. Probably the sharpest one this late in the season in at least 10 years. I am a huge fan of features like this in the "off" season.

 

At this point thicknesses are progged to plunge to 528 over Seattle Saturday morning with 850s crashing to -5. High potential for frost / record lows in some places Sunday morning into early next week. I actually had frost here this morning with a low of 35 and the weekend air mass is going to be a lot colder.

 

In other news chances now appear to be 50% or better of the Nino being over by late summer. If next winter is neutral ENSO we have a highly elevated chance of a good winter.

To see a frost this late in the season for my area would be surprising for sure, but not quite record-breaking as Portland has seen frost in May before.

 

Models don’t show frost for the Portland area on Saturday night right now, but what do you know? Good chance that some parts of the valley will see frost.

[Jesse]

I am absolutley loving the looks of this clipper slated for Saturday.  Probably the sharpest one this late in the season in at least 10 years.  I am a huge fan of features like this in the "off" season.

 

At this point thicknesses are progged to plunge to 528 over Seattle Saturday morning with 850s crashing to -5.  High potential for frost / record lows in some places Sunday morning into early next week.  I actually had frost here this morning with a low of 35 and the weekend air mass is going to be a lot colder.

 

In other news chances now appear to be 50% or better of the Nino being over by late summer.  If next winter is neutral ENSO we have a highly elevated chance of a good winter.

 

I will admit I like the looks of the pattern the next several days, even though it is mostly dry. Too bad the trough won't settle over us more aggressively as earlier runs were predicting.

[Jesse]

I would say its more than North Bend that might be due for a period of drier weather.    As horrific as that sounds.

 

The entire state of Oregon might be due actually.

 

 

The average rainfall in the Portland area this month has been very trying.

[TT-SEA]

The average rainfall in the Portland area this month has been very trying.

 

Oh well.

 

The state of Oregon has been very wet.    

[Jesse]

Oh well.

 

The state of Oregon has been very wet.    

 

Hopefully the next 12-72 months will trend drier again to balance things out.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully the next 12-72 months will trend drier again to balance things out.

 

Gripping drought continues!  

 

You need to move to a pod underwater somewhere.   You might have frog DNA in you. 

[snow_wizard]

I will admit I like the looks of the pattern the next several days, even though it is mostly dry. Too bad the trough won't settle over us more aggressively as earlier runs were predicting.

 

It's my experience that clippers normally are prolific at delivering chilly air though.  This one looks like a classic.

[Jesse]

You need to move to a pod underwater somewhere. You might have frog DNA in you.

You must. I think the foothills outside of North Bend are about the closest you can get to living underwater in a terrestrial environment. And you chose to live there.

[TT-SEA]

You must. I think the foothills outside of North Bend are about the closest you can get to living underwater in a terrestrial environment. And you chose to live there.

 

 

Hardly.   

 

Dry east wind is very common here.      

[Jesse]

GOA blocking seems to break down fairly quickly on the 00z Euro.

[TT-SEA]

GOA blocking seems to break down fairly quickly on the 00z Euro.

 

 

EPS has not been showing anything ridgy or really warm on any run... so I would not worry about it.    May could easily end up wetter than normal when we cycle through another jet extension.   

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

EPS has not been showing anything ridgy or really warm on any run... so I would not worry about it.    May could easily end up wetter than normal when we cycle through another jet extension.   

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

Is something like May 2013 possible?

[TT-SEA]

Is something like May 2013 possible?

 

 

The first half of May 2013 was warm and dry.    

[TacomaWaWx]

Beautiful morning today without the high clouds. Already a couple degrees warmer today than at this time yesterday. Made it to 56 yesterday should hit 60 today.

[Kayla]

I would say its more than North Bend that might be due for a period of drier weather.    As horrific as that sounds.

 

The entire state of Oregon might be due actually.

 

The whole "due" theory is so overused on here. It's the weather, it's going to do what it wants to do whether or not it's due or not. Our precip is well above average out here as well yet we're not entering a dry period. 

[TacomaWaWx]

The whole "due" theory is so overused on here. It's the weather, it's going to do what it wants to do whether or not it's due or not. Our precip is well above average out here as well yet we're not entering a dry period.

sometimes the weather patterns do go from dry to wet to dry and so on. Kind of has this year with the streaks of weather here in Western Washington anyways. Not always like that obviously the weather patterns are much more complicated than that that but it’s been kind of the theme this year.

[Kayla]

sometimes the weather patterns do go from dry to wet to dry and so on. Kind of has this year with the streaks of weather here in Western Washington anyways. Not always like that obviously the weather patterns are much more complicated than that that but it’s been kind of the theme this year.

 

Sure, ebb and flow theory isn't ground breaking news. Using a percent of average map is not a good indictor of that however.

[TT-SEA]

Sure, ebb and flow theory isn't ground breaking news. Using a percent of average map is not a good indictor of that however.

 

 

Its been a streaky year... lots of blocking.     The ebb and flow and been pretty regular for the last 6 months.    I am pretty sure there will be another wet period coming up too.  

[Jesse]

The whole "due" theory is so overused on here. It's the weather, it's going to do what it wants to do whether or not it's due or not. Our precip is well above average out here as well yet we're not entering a dry period.

 

Thank you.

[TT-SEA]

Thank you.

 

 

Yeah... over the long term we would be due for 4 dry years in a row after the 2014-17 period.   Given that 2014-17 was the wettest 4-year period on record up here.

 

So obviously the time scale is variable.   But climo says we will snap back to normal over the long term... unless the climate is changing of course.

[Jesse]

But climo says we will snap back to normal over the long term... unless the climate is changing of course.

 

Has been to some degree for as long as there's been a climate.

 

Sounds to me like we're due for it to stop changing for the next 4.6 billion years.

[TT-SEA]

Has been to some degree for as long as there's been a climate.

 

Sounds to me like we're due for it to stop changing for the next 4.6 billion years.

 

 

Interesting.   Rumor has it that in 1 billion years the sun will have expanded enough to turn Earth into Venus.

 

A uniform 800 degrees across the planet and a soupy, toxic atmosphere.   Trees will not be doing well at that point.   On the upside... there are endless thunderstorms on Venus.   A Russian space probe even captured the sounds of thunder on Venus back in the 1970s just before its crash landing.

 

Should be an exciting time for weather enthusiasts... but a bad time for tree lovers.

[Jesse]

Interesting.   Rumor has it that in 1 billion years the sun will have expanded enough to turn Earth into Venus.

 

A uniform 800 degrees across the planet and a soupy, toxic atmosphere.   

 

Sounds like some perfect summers on the way for you!

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like some perfect summers on the way for you!

Heaven on Earth!

 

And lots of sulfuric acid rain for you as well. Blessing from God.

 

It is sort of surreal to think that will actually be happening here. There is no doubt... its pre-determined.