April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Tyler Mode]

30.2 this morning in Battle Ground.  First freeze of the month.  I'm happy to see it from a stats point, otherwise this would have been my earliest last freeze of the season. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Made it down to 35 degrees last night here can see little bits of frost on some rooftops this morning probably the coldest night we’ve had since mid March when we had our last freeze on 3/11/19.

[antipex]

31 here this morning... glad I haven't planted the garden yet!

[Jesse]

31 here this morning... glad I haven't planted the garden yet!

Frosty with a low of 31 here as well. My latest freeze in several years.

[Jesse]

Amazing to see the models trending bone dry for the first half of May once again.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing to see the models trending bone dry for the first half of May once again.

 

 

EPS definitely backed off again with the jet extension in the long range.   

 

Here is day 10:

 

 

 

 

 

But it does not progress at all in the 10-15 day period... here is day 15.

 

 

[Jesse]

Meaningfully wet jet extensions aren’t really a thing going into May. At this point ULL patterns are the best at delivering needed precip.

[TT-SEA]

Meaningfully wet jet extensions aren’t really a thing going into May. At this point ULL patterns are the best at delivering needed precip.

 

 

Phil will tell you the pattern shown above would be really wet for us... but he would just be trolling me as usual.

[Jesse]

Phil will tell you the pattern shown above would be really wet for us... but he would just be trolling me as usual.

No he wouldn’t. That’s obviously a fairly

dry pattern at face value. Of course it’s a smoothed ensemble mean at days 10-15 so specifics like that are pretty meaningless anyway.

[TT-SEA]

No he wouldn’t. That’s obviously a fairly

dry pattern at face value. Of course it’s a smoothed ensemble mean at days 10-15 so specifics like that are pretty meaningless anyway

 

 

He would actually... even though he likely knows its not true.   

 

For a smoothed ensemble mean... that is a pretty strong signal for a deep trough over the Bering Sea in the long range.

[Jesse]

He would actually... even though he likely knows its not true.

 

For a smoothed ensemble mean... that is a pretty strong signal for a deep trough over the Bering Sea.

Poor Tim.

 

The 10-15 day EPS should basically be interpreted like an operational run.

[Front Ranger]

Several lows in the 20s in SW WA this morning.

 

41 at Tim's house.

[TT-SEA]

The 10-15 day EPS should basically be interpreted like an operational run.

 

Did not say that.  

 

You look for strong signals in the ensemble mean.   Usually the anomalies get washed out by the 10-15 day period.    That is a pretty strong signal at that range.

[TT-SEA]

Several lows in the 20s in SW WA this morning.

 

41 at Tim's house.

 

 

Incorrect... 34 here.   Saw a touch a frost on the shed roof before the sun came up.   I woke up the entire family... it was pretty exciting.  

 

Clear skies and no wind last night.

[Jesse]

Incorrect... 34 here. Saw a touch a frost on the shed roof before the sun came up. I woke up the entire family... it was pretty exciting.

 

Clear skies and no wind last night.

I was wondering why you weren’t mentioning your low...

[TacomaWaWx]

Interesting read this morning by cliff mass regarding the winds yesterday and the crane collapse. The event happened right as a wind shift was underway as the convergence zone was sliding south at around 3:30pm. Apparently there was a 10 degree temperature drop at around the time it happened along with a rise in the dew point. The station nearby recorded a 25mph gust at the time but cliff seems to think the wind could have been 5-10mph stronger due to the location right on the south end of the lake. Definitely possible that when the crane was being taken down it was less structurally sound than normal. Could have been design flaw also. The whole thing seems very possible as we had 25-35mph gusts from roughly 2-6pm here yesterday.

[Deweydog]

12z!!!

[Omegaraptor]

Low of 38 at PDX and 32 at Hillsboro.

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

D7400B80-AEA5-4A64-A31B-4B1C6B7AD13C.png

Not very good slug weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 this morning. Kool.

[Jesse]

Not very good slug weather.

Yeah sucks for them since they are the only animals that depend on water. Talk about an evolutionary blunder!

[TT-SEA]

Not very good slug weather.

 

 

Even drier than normal weather around here is still great slug weather.  

 

But looking at the past year does not really give an accurate picture of the current conditions... since drought across the western US has been all but wiped out over the last few months.  

 

Even in my area... 8 of the last 12 months have been drier than normal after the wettest 5-year period in history.    But this month has been very wet and the reservoirs are full and the soil conditions are definitely not dry.    We had to move a couple trees yesterday because they looked sick and when we dug them up we saw that the roots were sitting in water well below the surface.    And this area drains very well overall.   

[Jesse]

Pretty impressed with some of the lows this morning. Tomorrow morning should be similar, maybe a click or two warmer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty impressed with some of the lows this morning. Tomorrow morning should be similar, maybe a click or two warmer.

we even had some frost here this morning been awhile since that’s happened in late april here so close to the sound. Family garden should be alright though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Redmond in Central Oregon hit 21. 

[Jesse]

we even had some frost here this morning been awhile since that’s happened in late april here so close to the sound. Family garden should be alright though.

Family crane not so much.

[Jesse]

Redmond in Central Oregon hit 21.

I actually wouldn’t be too surprised to see the east side have their coldest morning tomorrow.

[ShawniganLake]

Even drier than normal weather around here is still great slug weather.

 

But looking at the past year does not really give an accurate picture of the current conditions... since drought across the western US has been all but wiped out over the last few months.

 

Even in my area... 8 of the last 12 months have been drier than normal after the wettest 5-year period in history. But this month has been very wet and the reservoirs are full and the soil conditions are definitely not dry. We had to move a couple trees yesterday because they looked sick and when we dug them up we saw that the roots were sitting in water well below the surface. And this area drains very well overall.

I think a 1 year snapshot would be a pretty good place to start for an accurate picture of current conditions. It can work both ways though. A really wet 12 month period could be wiped out by a hot dry month with your line of thinking.

 

It does not sound like the location those trees were so planted was draining very well. Good thing you moved them before it was too late.

[ShawniganLake]

Family crane not so much.

Too soon

[TT-SEA]

I think a 1 year snapshot would be a pretty good place to start for an accurate picture of current conditions. It can work both ways though. A really wet 12 month period could be wiped out by a hot dry month with your line of thinking.

 

It does not sound like the location those trees were so planted was draining very well. Good thing you moved them before it was too late.

We have seen the same thing the other way. Very wet winters were undone by unusually hot summers. So an annual picture would be misleading then as well in terms of conditions at the end of summer... as Jesse has pointed out hundreds of times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually wouldn’t be too surprised to see the east side have their coldest morning tomorrow.

 

Record low in Redmond today is 14, so it can still get pretty nippy this time of year. My buddy at Crooked River Ranch hit 18 this morning. 

[Phil]

EPS definitely backed off again with the jet extension in the long range.

 

Here is day 10:

 

 

 

 

 

But it does not progress at all in the 10-15 day period... here is day 15.

 

 

That’s still a jet extension. It just doesn’t extend all the way to the West coast.

 

Which is very possible since tropical forcing will be over the dreaded West-Pacific at the time, which is the ideal conduit to western ridging (and it’s why I have predicting ridging in May this year). It still looks like a 2-3 week warm pattern to me. Just delayed a bit.

 

Then the next cool, troughy cycle begins during the last week of May as intraseasonal forcing orbits back into the EHEM. Rinse, repeat.

[Phil]

Phil will tell you the pattern shown above would be really wet for us... but he would just be trolling me as usual.

I don’t troll with bad science. Just like you don’t troll with troughy EPS maps. Only the ridgy ones.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t troll with bad science. Just like you don’t troll with troughy EPS maps. Only the ridgy ones.

I don't create the EPS maps... I just point out things I find interesting. Usually that is when it shows something ridgy... but not always. I posted many EPS maps back in late Jaunary and February showing the cold air locked in place across the West for the entire run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't create the EPS maps... I just point out things I find interesting. Usually that is when it shows something ridgy... but not always. I posted many EPS maps back in late Jaunary and February showing the cold air locked in place across the West for the entire run.

 

Why is ridging interesting? It is the default pattern in our climate.

[Phil]

It has been really strange alright. We're setting a lot of oddball records too like most consecutive rainy days in April besides the impressive bouts of cold and abnormal warmth earlier in the year.

Fascinating. By happenstance, I looked through all of the weather records here and the closest “behavioral” analogs are all from the 19th century. Very old. Which might bode well for you guys in the PNW if that’s the seasonal regime we’re returning to.

 

This weather pattern screams 1880s/1890s. The warm sector severe weather, followed by the winter-like CAA/NW flow to 55mph and upslope snowfall in the mountains. Benjamin Franklin would mention weather like this in his diary, but it mostly vanished in the 20th century. Heartening to see it return.

[Phil]

And there were a slew of weak/moderate El Niño winters that performed very well in the PNW region in the 19th century.

 

Sometimes Niños can out-perform Niñas when the wavestations are properly situated, as 2018/19 and 1968/69 both prove relative to their niña predecessors 2017/18 and 1967/68.

[TT-SEA]

Why is ridging interesting? It is the default pattern in our climate.

We like nice weather. And its not the default of course.

[Phil]

We like nice weather. And its not the default of course.

Ridges technically are the default on the west coast of middle latitude continents. And warm season ridging has been the default in the PNW for the last 6 years. No other location on the planet has seen such prolific ridging during the summer months.