April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Fascinating. By happenstance, I looked through all of the weather records here and the closest “behavioral” analogs are all from the 19th century. Very old. Which might bode well for you guys in the PNW if that’s the seasonal regime we’re returning to.

 

This weather pattern screams 1880s/1890s. The warm sector severe weather, followed by the winter-like CAA/NW flow to 55mph and upslope snowfall in the mountains. Benjamin Franklin would mention weather like this in his diary, but it mostly vanished in the 20th century. Heartening to see it return.

Similarities to the late 1800s here as well.

[Jesse]

That’s still a jet extension. It just doesn’t extend all the way to the West coast.

 

Which is very possible since tropical forcing will be over the dreaded West-Pacific at the time, which is the ideal conduit to western ridging (and it’s why I have predicting ridging in May this year). It still looks like a 2-3 week warm pattern to me. Just delayed a bit.

 

Then the next cool, troughy cycle begins during the last week of May as intraseasonal forcing orbits back into the EHEM. Rinse, repeat.

I think I remember you making a post almost identical to this around the same time last year. Has to be a good sign!

[Jesse]

Amazing how this is starting to look like basically a carbon copy of last spring. Honestly didn’t see this coming.

[Phil]

Amazing how this is starting to look like basically a carbon copy of last spring. Honestly didn’t see this coming.

 

There’s nothing “carbon copy” about it except for some intraseasonal overlap. You were being a negative nancy fatalist back in March, too. Ease off the self-destruct button for a bit?

[Blizzard777]

Low of 33* at 7:30 this morning with frost

Currently sunny and 52*

Monthly rain 2.73

[Jesse]

 

There’s nothing “carbon copy” about it except for some intraseasonal overlap. You were being a negative nancy fatalist back in March, too. Ease off the self-destruct button for a bit?

I always find it entertaining how mad and insulting you get when people question your seasonal predictions.

[Jesse]

12z Euro doesn’t look as ridgy as the GFS late in the week. I guess they have switched roles for now.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro doesn’t look as ridgy as the GFS late in the week. I guess they have switched roles for now.

That trough on day 7 and 8 is surprisingly dry on the surface maps. We will see what days 9 and 10 look like. There is almost no rain through the end of day 8 though.

[High Desert Mat?]

I actually wouldn’t be too surprised to see the east side have their coldest morning tomorrow.

Right. Should be upper teens to low 20’s here with it warming to about 60.

[Prairiedog]

31f this am.  Got up at 4am to get the boat ready to chase salmon and I had to go back inside and put another layer on.  Layers on, layers off.  Tis' the season.  Have to look at my records but this is my latest sub freezing date in quite a while. 

[Front Ranger]

Amazing how this is starting to look like basically a carbon copy of last spring. Honestly didn’t see this coming.

 

February was colder this year. So May should be hotter.

[Phil]

I always find it entertaining how mad and insulting you get when people question your seasonal predictions.

What does this have to do with my seasonal prediction?

 

It’s demonstrably accurate that the current boundary conditions and ongoing system state bear little resemblance to those of 2018. That comment was based on objective reality and observations, not a prediction of something unforeseen.

[Phil]

And I’ve been calling for ridging in May for 3+ weeks now. So why would I attack my own forecast?

[Phil]

Years like 1997 along with the majority of the best warm ENSO/+QBO analogs with renewed warm pool draws had ridging in May. Even 1993 (which is not a great summer season analog this year thanks to volcanism) had ridging in May.

 

A lot of things can trigger it. But it offers no tea leaves without context.

[El_Nina]

These sunny and warm spells aren't even special anymore. They've become so frequent it would be like saying each wind gust is special on Mt. Washington. They've really lost their punch.

[Phil]

These sunny and warm spells aren't even special anymore. They've become so frequent it would be like saying each wind gust is special on Mt. Washington. They've really lost their punch.

Expect a torrential Tim tirade in response to this.

[Front Ranger]

What does this have to do with my seasonal prediction?

 

It’s demonstrably accurate that the current boundary conditions and ongoing system state bear little resemblance to those of 2018. That comment was based on objective reality and observations, not a prediction of something unforeseen.

 

To be fair, this spring so far has followed a remarkably similar script to last spring, and that's just objective reality and observations. After you promised it would be MUCH different.

 

Although this April will actually end up much drier for western WA than last April.

[Deweydog]

ugh

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 32 here this morning.  The latest freeze I have recorded here and oddly the first freeze I have seen here this month.

[Phil]

To be fair, this spring so far has followed a remarkably similar script to last spring, and that's just objective reality and observations. After you promised it would be MUCH different.

 

Although this April will actually end up much drier for western WA than last April.

Which means nothing because the forcing structure and hemispheric wave structure could not be more different.

 

So there are no large scale pattern similarities, and there is no reason to expect a similar script, even locally out there as time goes on.

 

May will be warm and dry until the last week of the month..then it will flip again. But not because it’s “following 2018” or whatever the hell you’re trying to argue here.

[Phil]

And yes that jet extension next month will eventually morph into a cool, wet pattern for the West. But not until the MJO leaves the WHEM during the last week of the month.

 

When intraseasonal forcings line up between years, sometimes it produces structural similarities even with little resemblance in terms of their background states. This year and 2018 are a decent example of that.

[ShawniganLake]

To be fair, this spring so far has followed a remarkably similar script to last spring, and that's just objective reality and observations. After you promised it would be MUCH different.

 

Although this April will actually end up much drier for western WA than last April.

We’ve only seen about 40% as much rain this April as we did in 2018, here locally.

 

I wouldn’t be too surprised if this May/June combined ends up warmer than last year

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Low of 34 this morning just before 6AM. Another beautiful day!

[Jesse]

We’ve only seen about 40% as much rain this April as we did in 2018, here locally.

 

I wouldn’t be too surprised if this May/June combined ends up warmer than last year

Warmer? That’s pretty bold. Really nowhere to go but down from last year, especially for May.

[TT-SEA]

Expect a torrential Tim tirade in response to this.

Why?

 

His opinion. He likes cold and wet all the time so of course he feels that way. And he wants to move to Florida.

[ShawniganLake]

Warmer? That’s pretty bold. Really nowhere to go but down from last year, especially for May.

What was June like there? May was warm but June was about average here.

[Jesse]

What was June like there? May was warm but June was about average here.

It was a couple degrees abouve average.

[Omegaraptor]

I mean, sure, we might have a cool wet pattern at the end of May/beginning of June, but by that time dry season will have already started.

 

I hope there's some actual variation in weather patterns instead of "3 weeks with constant sun and no precipitation followed by 2 weeks of overcast and sporadic drizzle that never amounts to much". The latter is unlikely in late May/early June, but still. I just want faster changing weather patterns.

[Front Ranger]

Warmer? That’s pretty bold. Really nowhere to go but down from last year, especially for May.

 

Yeah, May was an absolute blowtorch, though June was actually pretty close to normal especially as you went north.

 

But you'd still need most places to average 3-4 degrees above normal this May/June to beat last year.

[Jesse]

I mean, sure, we might have a cool wet pattern at the end of May/beginning of June, but by that time dry season will have already started.

 

I hope there's some actual variation in weather patterns instead of "3 weeks with constant sun and no precipitation followed by 2 weeks of overcast and sporadic drizzle that never amounts to much". The latter is unlikely in late May/early June, but still. I just want faster changing weather patterns.

You’re gonna complain no matter what happens. We already know that.

[ShawniganLake]

It was a couple degrees abouve average.

I need to see more u’s.

 

That would probably make things a little tougher. My gut feeling was Maybe a little warm for May and a very warm June. My gut has been wroung befoure

[Jesse]

I need to see more u’s.

 

That would probably make things a little tougher. My gut feeling was Maybe a little warm for May and a very warm June. My gut has been wroung befoure

Souunds 2015-ish.

[Deweydog]

18uz!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like there’s a chance that the crane collapse in Seattle May have been partially caused by the winds this afternoon. It was being dismantled today and people in the area said they saw the crane swaying in the wind before it crashed. Wind speeds were not high in Seattle but maybe they were in that area, would make sense since the area where the crane collapsed is exposed to north wind right on the south end of lake union. Really tragic this happened.

 

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

[TacomaWaWx]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

That is so terrible I’m really sorry to hear that.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

Wow. That is horrible.

[ShawniganLake]

Souunds 2015-ish.

1992ish

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day...

 

[Blizzard777]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

Sorry to hear this as well Andrew. Telephone poles a few weeks ago (lucky no one killed during that incident) and now this. You just never know....so best to just live each day to its fullest and love those around you including this community of silly weather enthusiasts!

[Requiem]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

 

Very sorry to hear that, what a terrible freak event.