June 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

Only 0.07" today, on top of 0.07" yesterday as well. Considering how the storms looked heading into my area, incredible how little rain we ended up getting.

 

I didn’t do any better with a measly 0,09”. The forecast was way off to my benefit as it was still only in the middle 70°s awhile ago!

 

It appears eastern Iowa also has a circular dome.

 

edit:

DVN AFD

[Stormy]

Today’s MCS seemed to maintain strength much better/ longer than the one yesterday. And I’m wondering why this one dove south while yesterday’ MCS barely wanted to make the southeast turn. I guess that keeps us guessing and makes watching storms interesting!

[OKwx2k4]

For what it's worth, the closest May-June combo that I have found to this year in terms of local weather is 2008. Not sure about nationally.

 

In response to Andie, if we follow 2008 closely, we are going to be done with "hot" summer very soon.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well if that’s the case and we wouldn’t have summer, after awhile there would be mass starvation and life would cease to exist as we know it! But yeah I know what you’re talking about.lol

Good one. That would do us in. As I get older, I just don’t like the extreme heat and humidity.

[snowstorm83]

Good one. That would do us in. As I get older, I just don’t like the extreme heat and humidity.

 

I've noticed for most people it's the opposite, which is why a lot of Midwesterners go off to some retirement village in Florida or Arizona once the time comes. I like the cold, it's refreshing, but I make sure to wear a coat. I've noticed a lot of people (girls usually) who don't dress properly for the weather, but then complain about the cold. 

[Minny_Weather]

I've noticed for most people it's the opposite, which is why a lot of Midwesterners go off to some retirement village in Florida or Arizona once the time comes. I like the cold, it's refreshing, but I make sure to wear a coat. I've noticed a lot of people (girls usually) who don't dress properly for the weather, but then complain about the cold.

My favorites are the frat boys at UNL who wear a hoodie or a North Face sweatshirt and workout pants in -10 weather.

[Jaycee]

Got one of those random stationary pop up severe storms just dumping over top of me right now. Love this!!!

[Stormhunter87]

My favorites are the frat boys at UNL who wear a hoodie or a North Face sweatshirt and workout pants in -10 weather.

Not a frat boy but I still do that for short trips outside.

[Minny_Weather]

Not a frat boy but I still do that for short trips outside.

Hell I'll wear shorts when going outside to get firewood or something. But I'm talking 10 minute walks to class.

[CentralNebWeather]

Almost 10 pm and still a heat index of 90 degrees. Tomorrow looks oppressive and Sunday is no better. Maybe some relief next week.

[jcwxguy]

Almost 10pm heat index here still 101! Dew point 78.

[Minny_Weather]

22:34 and air temp here is still 86.2*F. Was just at the Saltdogs game and I was definitely wearing the weather. Dew point is a "DRY" 74*F.

[Tom]

While it was mainly cloudy throughout the day yesterday, skies ended up clearing towards late afternoon and temps shot up rather quickly from the low/mid 70's and ORD hit 90F for the 1st time this season. It felt hot and humid, but I'm sure nothing like what you guys in NE are experiencing! My goodness, that's like insanely unbearable. Just imagine if the crops were more mature across the state...yikes!

 

This has been an active severe wx season locally, esp over Chicago proper. The city has had several hail producing storms already hit the city just in the past week. I don't think the insurance companies are to happy.

 

It's a gorgeous sunrise here this morning with a warm 70F temp, modest humidity (65F), calm winds and clear skies. Thank you nature! Can't believe its almost the 4th of July and the half way point to 2019. Time is flying by. I just had a flashback of the "Polar Vortex" intrusion from back in late January....and literally had the chills from that thought...!

[Tom]

I started a July thread....http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2060-july-2019-observations-and-discussion/

[Niko]

Gorgeous morning outside w hazy, July sunshine, warm and humid w temps at 72F. Temps will soar in the upper 80s to near 90F today. Pop-up pm storms are possible each and everyday. Looks like a shower pass by my area this morning as everything outside is damp. 

[St Paul Storm]

Upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning in the TC metro. Temps in the low 90s today and tomorrow with HI around 100F. Lows shouldn’t get below 75F tonight. Finally, some summer wx. Only the 2nd time I’ve turned the AC on.

[Tom]

Today, I feel like sharing with you my thoughts on the Winter of 2019-2020, of which, will not only be a memorable one for our Sub and our country as a whole, but also for our European friends.  I'll primarily focus on our country as there is much to say bc if you think it was bad last year, esp for those who broke snow and cold records across the Plains into the Upper Midwest, GL's region...this season will likely have it all.  At this point last year, I was pretty confident we would have a cold winter season overall and it ended up verifying.  At this point in time, I feel even more confident that we will see a repeat scenario across our Sub for another cold, long lasting winter but the million dollar question is, who will see the most snow???  That is yet to be determined as I want to see how the LRC sets up next Oct/Nov but we can use the computer models to give us a clue and maybe provide some insight on what influences may impact the cyclical pattern next Autumn/Winter season.

 

In the weather dept, there's a debate if it is the ocean SST's that generate the jet stream pattern or is it vise versa???  It's more or less the Chicken & Egg scenario...what came first???  It is my opinion, that the ocean SST's create the jet stream patterns due to other personal opinions I won't get into at the moment.  For the sake of not boring you all, let's dive in to what I firmly believe will be one of the shortest transitions out of "Summer" into Autumn I'm going to experience since tracking the weather or maybe in my lifetime.  Sadly, I'm fully expecting to see early Frosts this year across our ag belt which may be even more of an impacting scenario for our crop farmers.  Not a good scenario.

 

Let's take a look at the SST's off the CFSv2...

 

This is a dream scenario if it comes close to what it's showing for the months of Oct/Nov...1) Warm tongue across NE PAC (Promotes Alaskan Ridging)  2) Cold pocket NW of Hawaii (Promotes a deep Aleutian Low...late 70's scenario???)   3) Legit Modoki Nino focusing the warmest waters farther west across the equatorial PAC  (focuses primary convection across the central PAC)  4) Cooler eastern equatorial PAC relative to normal  5) Very warm western ATL ocean  (another year whereby we see a SER???)  6) Cold waters around Australia (promotes favorable cold phases of the MJO)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taking a look at the Sep-Nov 700mb maps I'm seeing a definitive sign that there will be early season ridging at play as the CFSv2 is seeing a Bearing Sea Ridge which promotes a signal for a SER.  Is this yet another clue we are in the midst of a climatic shift???  Yes, but that's a whole other topic of discussion.  What is also intriguing is the early development of a Vortex across the Archipelago region during the month of Sept which I did not post but it's showing up run after run on the CFS/CFSv2 and is a clear indication next year's LRC cycle will have a dominant North American Vortex.  Needless to say, our continent will be inundated with cold potential, likely historic at times, repeating throughout the Autumn/Winter months.  I believe we will see an early build up of the North American snow pack and record levels by Sept, esp in October so hang on folks, this is going to be one of those memorable stretches of weather that brings enthusiasts like myself intrigued by the beauty of what nature can do.

 

 

 

Looking closer at the SST's across the E PAC, I love what I'm seeing off the coast of Cali/Baja as a cooler pocket of water has formed since earlier in the year, which is leading me to believe we are going to see a hyper active STJ next cold season as I think this pattern will continue into Oct/Nov.  Not to mention, the Modoki Nino will influence the LRC and translate into a very wet pattern....SW Flow???  The alignment of all the warm/cold pools across the N PAC is a textbook example of how nature can develop a legitimate "Split Flow" pattern across North America.  I'm licking my chops bc if this scenario plays out, many of us will be happy campers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I wrap this up, while experiencing a warm and muggy morning, it won't be long till we see the cool/cold crisp days of Sept.  Snow flakes will be flying in the month of September and into October, preparing us all for another memorable winter of 2019-20.  

[Tom]

Upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning in the TC metro. Temps in the low 90s today and tomorrow with HI around 100F. Lows shouldn’t get below 75F tonight. Finally, some summer wx. Only the 2nd time I’ve turned the AC on.

I've used it about 2 or 3 times this week and only for about a few hours in the day to cool off the house.  Saving that cash!  Stay cool up there buddy!

[Andie]

In response to Andie, if we follow 2008 closely, we are going to be done with "hot" summer very soon.

2008 in No. Texas was extremely cold, overcast, foggy at times, and lots of snow and drizzle. I recall taking a walk onthe golf course with snow 4-5" above my ankles. We had several snow events and I didn't think I'd ever see the sun again.

If you're right, we had best prepare.

[CentralNebWeather]

Today, I feel like sharing with you my thoughts on the Winter of 2019-2020, of which, will not only be a memorable one for our Sub and our country as a whole, but also for our European friends. I'll primarily focus on our country as there is much to say bc if you think it was bad last year, esp for those who broke snow and cold records across the Plains into the Upper Midwest, GL's region...this season will likely have it all. At this point last year, I was pretty confident we would have a cold winter season overall and it ended up verifying. At this point in time, I feel even more confident that we will see a repeat scenario across our Sub for another cold, long lasting winter but the million dollar question is, who will see the most snow??? That is yet to be determined as I want to see how the LRC sets up next Oct/Nov but we can use the computer models to give us a clue and maybe provide some insight on what influences may impact the cyclical pattern next Autumn/Winter season.

 

In the weather dept, there's a debate if it is the ocean SST's that generate the jet stream pattern or is it vise versa??? It's more or less the Chicken & Egg scenario...what came first??? It is my opinion, that the ocean SST's create the jet stream patterns due to other personal opinions I won't get into at the moment. For the sake of not boring you all, let's dive in to what I firmly believe will be one of the shortest transitions out of "Summer" into Autumn I'm going to experience since tracking the weather or maybe in my lifetime. Sadly, I'm fully expecting to see early Frosts this year across our ag belt which may be even more of an impacting scenario for our crop farmers. Not a good scenario.

 

Let's take a look at the SST's off the CFSv2...

 

This is a dream scenario if it comes close to what it's showing for the months of Oct/Nov...1) Warm tongue across NE PAC (Promotes Alaskan Ridging) 2) Cold pocket NW of Hawaii (Promotes a deep Aleutian Low...late 70's scenario???) 3) Legit Modoki Nino focusing the warmest waters farther west across the equatorial PAC (focuses primary convection across the central PAC) 4) Cooler eastern equatorial PAC relative to normal 5) Very warm western ATL ocean (another year whereby we see a SER???) 6) Cold waters around Australia (promotes favorable cold phases of the MJO)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taking a look at the Sep-Nov 700mb maps I'm seeing a definitive sign that there will be early season ridging at play as the CFSv2 is seeing a Bearing Sea Ridge which promotes a signal for a SER. Is this yet another clue we are in the midst of a climatic shift??? Yes, but that's a whole other topic of discussion. What is also intriguing is the early development of a Vortex across the Archipelago region during the month of Sept which I did not post but it's showing up run after run on the CFS/CFSv2 and is a clear indication next year's LRC cycle will have a dominant North American Vortex. Needless to say, our continent will be inundated with cold potential, likely historic at times, repeating throughout the Autumn/Winter months. I believe we will see an early build up of the North American snow pack and record levels by Sept, esp in October so hang on folks, this is going to be one of those memorable stretches of weather that brings enthusiasts like myself intrigued by the beauty of what nature can do.

 

 

 

Looking closer at the SST's across the E PAC, I love what I'm seeing off the coast of Cali/Baja as a cooler pocket of water has formed since earlier in the year, which is leading me to believe we are going to see a hyper active STJ next cold season as I think this pattern will continue into Oct/Nov. Not to mention, the Modoki Nino will influence the LRC and translate into a very wet pattern....SW Flow??? The alignment of all the warm/cold pools across the N PAC is a textbook example of how nature can develop a legitimate "Split Flow" pattern across North America. I'm licking my chops bc if this scenario plays out, many of us will be happy campers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I wrap this up, while experiencing a warm and muggy morning, it won't be long till we see the cool/cold crisp days of Sept. Snow flakes will be flying in the month of September and into October, preparing us all for another memorable winter of 2019-20.

Great information as usual Tom. I thought last winter was great around here and the coming winter may be better. I have talked to my relatives that farm outside of town. There biggest fear is an early frost or freeze as the crops are behind schedule as of today.

[Tom]

Great information as usual Tom. I thought last winter was great around here and the coming winter may be better. I have talked to my relatives that farm outside of town. There biggest fear is an early frost or freeze as the crops are behind schedule as of today.

Yup, that is my worry as well if the early frosts/freezes hamper crops in Sept. With such a late start to the growing season and the anticipation of a wetter pattern in July, growth may not be as good. Add the potential for an early frost and that’ll be the last blow for farmers.

[Hawkeye]

The dewpoint is up to 77º here.

[East Dubzz]

Both the weather station at my house and my parents house are currently showing a temp of 90 degrees, with a heat index of 98.

[james1976]

I'll be in Janesville WI today and west burbs of Chicago tomorrow! Gonna be a sweaty weekend. Its pushing 90 already!

[CentralNebWeather]

2:15 pm, temp 98, heat index 107 and dew of 72. Hanging out in the man cave with a cold drink and the ac cranked.

[Minny_Weather]

Hello from Stuart, IA. 93°F, Dew point 77°F, heat index 108°F.

[Niko]

Currently mostly sunny, warm and also muggy w temps at 86F.

[St Paul Storm]

First 90F of the season on the home weather station. 91/71. Swampy.

[jcwxguy]

Dp 81

[Niko]

This was taken by friend of mine that lives 15 minutes away from me yesterday when a severe thunderstorm warning was issued. Ping Pong ball sized hail was reported there. This storm missed me by a few miles. I am slightly north.

 

 

[Andie]

Our summer temps are welcomed to dry out and get the crops in but Europe is broiling right now, mostly without A/C.

Our cool is their heat, I think.

 

Madrid 104

Toulouse 104

Bern, Switz 99 - very rare

Berlin 99

Rome 97

Paris 93

Vienna 93.

 

Tourists are no doubt looking for cooler places to travel to.

[OKwx2k4]

I've noticed for most people it's the opposite, which is why a lot of Midwesterners go off to some retirement village in Florida or Arizona once the time comes. I like the cold, it's refreshing, but I make sure to wear a coat. I've noticed a lot of people (girls usually) who don't dress properly for the weather, but then complain about the cold.

Same here I guess. I've always had the understanding that there's more I can do about getting cold than being hot. Therefore I favor cold.

[OKwx2k4]

Great stuff Tom.

 

Andie, that's the camp I'm leaning to right now. My snow numbers were only paltry that season because they were replaced by a 3 day sleet storm and a catastrophic ice disaster in Jan '09. It has taken the trees a decade to recover. I can still see the damage in them if I remember where to look.

 

Nature almost has that "too perfect" look this year. It's almost eerie.

[CentralNebWeather]

Dp 81

And I thought our 107 was unbearable here. Nasty heat.

[CentralNebWeather]

We have had a south breeze at 20 mph most of the day so it has helped some. You walk outside and it feels like a blast furnace. Saw guys putting in a new parking lot and felt sorry for anyone working out in this heat.

[Stormy]

Wow it was hot and like a sauna here today! Both of my wx stations show a high of 95°/79° and a maximum heat index of 111°! I’ve had quite a bit higher h.i. in prior years, but there wasn’t much wind today. I don’t think the crops are adding a lot of humidity yet since they are quite small locally. Would’ve been nice to get under one of those isolated storms that popped up.

[Stormy]

Nice to see an MCS already diving sse. in Mn. A number of CAMS are showing eastern IA on the western end of it later today. The SPC agrees with that scenario. At least we should get some clouds if nothing else which would help mitigate the heat. What I’m hoping is for it to hit the areas that got missed on Friday.

 

Edit: Hopefully the instability gradient doesn’t shift to far east today and it continues due south, and doesn’t dissipate either.

[Tom]

This is one nasty looking bowed line of storms that might wake up our friends up near MSP...

 

[Minny_Weather]

There was absolutely zero wind in Western Iowa yesterday. I've always found it funny how once you cross the Iowa state line in the Summer the South wind just suddenly goes away and it starts feeling tropical.

[St Paul Storm]

Skies are darkening up quickly. Another terrible job by the models as none of them have this MCS hitting the TC. Not even the latest run of the HRRR. It’s losing some steam but we should get some rain at the very least.