June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

72 here this morning. Down about 5F from yesterday at this time.

[ShawniganLake]

We need more ICON analysis. 12z suggests next weeks trough stalls over the north coast of B.C. with flat ridging over the PNW

[TT-SEA]

We need more ICON analysis. 12z suggests next weeks trough stalls over the north coast of B.C. with flat ridging over the PNW

 

I would not believe the ICON over the EPS.   

[Front Ranger]

Record warm is seeming pretty unlikely at this point

Unlikely for legit stations, but can't rule it out for SEA... they're running +4.6 almost halfway through the month.

[Jesse]

We need more ICON analysis. 12z suggests next weeks trough stalls over the north coast of B.C. with flat ridging over the PNW

12 GFS must look less favourable.

[TacomaWaWx]

12 GFS must look less favourable.

yeah showing 0.05-0.20” over Western WA and nil for Western OR over the next 10 days. Could still potentially end up being the driest June I have in my recordings but still too early too call. Doesn’t look like itll be the warmest atleast.

[TT-SEA]

66 at SEA... and 76 here right now.

 

Marine influence not quite this far east... yet.  

[Jesse]

yeah showing 0.05-0.20” over Western WA and nil for Western OR over the next 10 days. Could still potentially end up being the driest June I have in my recordings but still too early too call. Doesn’t look like itll be the warmest atleast.

12z GFS looks pretty dry for what is a fairly troughy run at 500mb. Maybe they are trying to overcorrect for the FV3’s wet bias now that they’ve officially made the downgrade.

[TacomaWaWx]

12z GFS looks pretty dry for what is a fairly troughy run at 500mb. Maybe they are trying to overcorrect for the FV3’s wet bias now that they’ve officially made the downgrade.

yeah that is true could be the reason. Hopefully things change for the better over the next few days and we end up getting some rain before July and August.

[TacomaWaWx]

68 degrees as of 11am. Cool SW breeze today perfect day.

[Phil]

[Phil]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139164757892710400

That African standing wave has also been responsible for the multitude of catastrophic hurricanes in recent years. So it’s not all a good thing.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

In the winter!

 

 

His blue and our red gets us closer to the same actual weather.   So we actually agree.  

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS looks pretty dry for what is a fairly troughy run at 500mb. Maybe they are trying to overcorrect for the FV3’s wet bias now that they’ve officially made the downgrade.

It'll be ******* hilarious if the new GFS ends up outperforming the new Euro.

[Kayla]

12z GFS looks pretty dry for what is a fairly troughy run at 500mb. Maybe they are trying to overcorrect for the FV3’s wet bias now that they’ve officially made the downgrade.

 

That would require some practical thinking by our government.

 

The new GFS still has a wet bias and besides, the euro looks very similar over the next 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF definitely looks less troughy than previous runs through 144 hours at least... might still crash after that.   It has been trending less troughy in the mid range over the last few runs.  

[Kayla]

This would be nice... In December!

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does indeed show a crash at 168 hours.

 

[TT-SEA]

This would be nice... In December!

 

 

Simultaneously posted the same map.  

[Front Ranger]

Day 7!

[Kayla]

Simultaneously posted the same map.  

 

Beat you to it! 

[Front Ranger]

Impressive trough for summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hopefully the trough actually gives us some rain but it’ll probably be NW flow again. My house will miss out again in that scenario.

Up to 69 here at 12pm.

[TT-SEA]

Total precip through day 9 per the 12Z ECMWF... precip is done by this time (on this run).  

 

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully the trough actually gives us some rain but it’ll probably be NW flow again. My house will miss out again in that scenario.

Up to 69 here at 12pm.

 

Only 70 at SEA at noon... 79 here.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 70 at SEA at noon... 79 here.

Still must be offshore flow up near the cascade crest then. Flow has been onshore here since about 8 or 9 last night. That’ll probably change later with the stronger onshore push.

[TT-SEA]

Still must be offshore flow up near the cascade crest then. Flow has been onshore here since about 8 or 9 last night. That’ll probably change later with the stronger onshore push.

 

 

No... the flow is onshore here too.   Just not that strong.   If the flow was offshore then it would probably be 90+ here.

[TacomaWaWx]

No... the flow is onshore here too. Just not that strong. If the flow was offshore then it would probably be 90+ here.

interesting that it’s almost 10 degrees warmer in north bend although on summer days it is often to have temps be 5-10 degrees warmer a few miles from the sound.

[TT-SEA]

interesting that it’s almost 10 degrees warmer in north bend although on summer days it is often to have temps be 5-10 degrees warmer a few miles from the sound.

 

Very common on days with weak onshore flow for it to be warmer out here than in Seattle.  

 

Tomorrow the onshore flow will be stronger and there will be no difference in temp.

[Timmy Supercell]

2019 put February back up on the "snowy" status. Well I've always had snow in February but strangely February in this town was rarely ever known for the amount I had this time. And less "snowstorms" occur in February than in Jan/Dec. Had the 2nd snowiest and 4th coldest one in 2019.

 

Dec 2013 was a bit colder, but Feb 2019 is still a very respectable one for its stats. Overall my third snowiest calendar month in the last 10 years and that is only by a small margin under the other top 2.

 

My 3 snowiest months...

Dec 2015: 33.10"

Jan 2017: 29.50"

Feb 2019: 27.50"

[Phil]

[Timmy Supercell]

2019 put February back up on the "snowy" status. Well I've always had snow in February but strangely February in this town was rarely ever known for the amount I had this time. And less "snowstorms" occur in February than in Jan/Dec. Had the 2nd snowiest and 4th coldest one in 2019.

 

Dec 2013 was a bit colder, but Feb 2019 is still a very respectable one for its stats. Overall my third snowiest calendar month in the last 10 years and that is only by a small margin under the other top 2.

 

My 3 snowiest months...

Dec 2015: 33.10"

Jan 2017: 29.50"

Feb 2019: 27.50"

 

To add to Feb 2019... interesting that I had no individual 5+ inch days. It was just a consistently snowy and cold month. 

 

Here are my personal day to day snowfalls.. (left out trace/wet days)

02/04/2019 - 1.50"

02/05/2019 - 1.00"

02/09/2019 - 3.80"

02/12/2019 - 2.00"

02/13/2019 - 3.20"

02/14/2019 - 1.00"

02/16/2019 - 2.75"

02/20/2019 - 2.25"

02/25/2019 - 3.00"

02/26/2019 - 4.80"

02/27/2019 - 2.20"

[TacomaWaWx]

2019 put February back up on the "snowy" status. Well I've always had snow in February but strangely February in this town was rarely ever known for the amount I had this time. And less "snowstorms" occur in February than in Jan/Dec. Had the 2nd snowiest and 4th coldest one in 2019.

 

Dec 2013 was a bit colder, but Feb 2019 is still a very respectable one for its stats. Overall my third snowiest calendar month in the last 10 years and that is only by a small margin under the other top 2.

 

My 3 snowiest months...

Dec 2015: 33.10"

Jan 2017: 29.50"

Feb 2019: 27.50"

3 snowiest months here are 22.0” in feb 2019, 16.0” in December 2008 and 10.5” in January 2012. Definitely nice that we finally got a big snowstorm here this year the first real heavy snowstorm in 7 years.

[Front Ranger]

3 snowiest months here are 22.0” in feb 2019, 16.0” in December 2008 and 10.5” in January 2012. Definitely nice that we finally got a big snowstorm here this year the first real heavy snowstorm in 7 years.

 

What did you get in Feb 2017?

[TacomaWaWx]

What did you get in Feb 2017?

5 inches on the night of Super Bowl 51 and that was it. Was really wet snow.

[Timmy Supercell]

 

To add to Feb 2019... interesting that I had no individual 5+ inch days. It was just a consistently snowy and cold month. 

 

Here are my personal day to day snowfalls.. (left out trace/wet days)

02/04/2019 - 1.50"

02/05/2019 - 1.00"

02/09/2019 - 3.80"

02/12/2019 - 2.00"

02/13/2019 - 3.20"

02/14/2019 - 1.00"

02/16/2019 - 2.75"

02/20/2019 - 2.25"

02/25/2019 - 3.00"

02/26/2019 - 4.80"

02/27/2019 - 2.20"

 

 

Oh yeah, forgot to add my depth never got higher than about 9.5" but that did make one of my top 5 depths, which I just added to my sig.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

84F at EUG.  Travis Knutsen and co at KVAL are calling for upper 80s today so it'll be interesting to see if we can hit 90F.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 72 degrees at 2pm. High clouds have rolled in here. Overall couldn’t ask for better weather in the summer.

[Frontal Snowsquall]