TT-SEA Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 The last part of this extended trough is a ULL that moves through Oregon tomorrow. Per the ECMWF... the rain from that system will mostly stay south of Olympia with more sun again farther north. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Phase 7 strongly favors PNW troughing in April... its likely why the models have been trending more troughy as things get closer and why I expected any ridging shown in the models to fall apart. But there is a very slow pattern change (retrogression) happening already which will eventually favor less troughing in the west and more troughing in the east. We need to get into phase 8 and 1 for that to happen. I’ll believe eastern troughing when I see it. The low frequency/base state pattern this year has been one of unrelenting ridging out here. And not all of it is MJO/ENSO, there are other reasons it has been so stable to date. I’ll bet you the end result is a week or less of troughing/ULL activity, then right back to ridging. I’ve seen this type of pattern before, highly unlikely it’s going anywhere this year. Was looking for a wintry in March/April which is more common post-niña and would have been a reason for optimism, but when it failed to appear I knew we were f**ked. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Today will play out a little differently than the last few days... ECMWF shows a decent amount of sun by this afternoon. Sun would be nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?! 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross. But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phil said: In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross. But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf Mine was like I sniffed liquid bleach. Very strange and nasty times. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?! Need Yellowstone to blow. Would deliver historic #blessings 3 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross. But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf Peanut butter, onions, anything burning, coffee were the weirdest and hardest to get back. Poop smelled so different as well, it was actually not as bad, which was nice having a kid in diapers. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said: Mine was like I sniffed liquid bleach. Very strange and nasty times. Good description, it was like smelling the chlorine floaty in a hot tub. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?! Patterns have been unusually stuck for long periods of time since that event. No idea if it is related but it has been quite unusual since last spring. Just because the west has been colder does not mean it had no effect. But you are probably just trolling as usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Need Yellowstone to blow. Would deliver historic #blessings Are you feeling suicidal again? We are here for you. 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 39 with a wind driven light rain on my walk a bit ago. Brisk! Gotta get those steps in though. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD. Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed. Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 Tongo > Russia keep it going.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 First snowless 4/11 since 2021 here. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phil said: East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD. Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed. Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year. Someone needs to tell the northern Pacific Ocean that it's lagging way behind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Phil said: East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD. Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed. Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year. Just browsing through historical SSTA maps... looks maybe similar to 2009 right now in terms of Nino development which seemed to start from the east and build west. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: Seems like tropical volcanoes are better at promoting worldwide distribution of atmospheric SO2 thanks to their positioning with regard to global circulation, but every little bit helps. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Seems like tropical volcanoes are better at promoting worldwide distribution of atmospheric SO2 thanks to their positioning with regard to global circulation, but every little bit helps. could have regional/hemispheric effects 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 Just now, Phishy Wx said: could have regional/hemispheric effects Definitely. It’s right on the other side of our biggest weather maker. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet. 2 vents? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 13 hours ago, Deweydog said: It seems like that spot is still dealing with aftershocks from the mammoth slide in February 1996. According to the old guard it was never a problem spot before that but since then it has unleashed slides every few years. I think the last biggie was December 2015. Speaking of 1996, that thing was epic. The fact that it closed both directions is amazing considering the lay of the land there as the debris flow made it all the way to the river. I remember traversing the unpaved detour they made available about a week after the slide and it was seriously sketchy even in my BEASTLY ‘88 S-10. I wanted a Syclone soooo bad. 1 hour ago, Phil said: In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross. But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf I got it last summer and we had a bunch of portable A/Cs in the house. I started pulling them all apart because I thought they were blowing toxic refrigerant/freon gas. I laugh at it now but for a few hours I was legit like Saul's older brother who went crazy pulling out all the electric wiring in his house. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet. 2 vents? wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 15 hours ago, MossMan said: I have only gotten back about 40% of my taste and smell from when I had it back in late November. Sucks. Didn’t affect my senses of taste and smell even when I had it. Have heard that the new variants are less likely to do that. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 FTR, I've never had Covid. not sure how i've avoided it. working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 Mt. Lassen should blow its top some day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: FTR, I've never had Covid. not sure how i've avoided it. working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine Could have had an asymptomatic case and not even realized it. Pretty much everyone is going to get it sooner or later. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet. 2 vents? Someone should kidnap Putin in a helicopter and drop him on top with a parachute to slow his descent. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 Rain’s let up here, had a total of close to 2” the last two days. Chilly and cloudy now. 43 degrees. Ended up with a 51/41 yesterday. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 43 here too, but we've only gotten like .4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 So crazy how the warmth next weekend completely collapsed. Now it looks like we could be lucky to hit 60, which is pretty much just average, maybe even a degree or two below at that point. I always love seeing warmth fail on the models, but the ferocity of it the last few weekends has surprised even me. 3 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Someone should kidnap Putin in a helicopter and drop him on top with a parachute to slow his descent. Or without. Doesn’t really change the outcome. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Mt. Lassen should blow its top some day Long Valley Caldera is the real giant in California. 240 cubic miles of magma under that thing. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: 43 here too, but we've only gotten like .4" That’s decent for over there. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: FTR, I've never had Covid. not sure how i've avoided it. working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine Never had it either. I’m sure working from home and having grown kids is a factor. Wife has been sick a few times during Covid but never tested positive so I assume she’s dodged it as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Someone needs to tell the northern Pacific Ocean that it's lagging way behind. I think the -PDO/-NPMM signature and EPAC warming constructively interfere IE tend to reinforce/exist together. El Niño insets during the last cold phase (1950s-70s) also tended to feature the EPAC/South Pacific warming, while the more modern (and previous warm phase) El Niño onsets focused in the west-central pacific. 2015 was the latter, historic +NPMM/+PDO and El Niño that evolved out of the WPAC which actually started during winter 2014/15, and evolved rapidly from there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just browsing through historical SSTA maps... looks maybe similar to 2009 right now in terms of Nino development which seemed to start from the east and build west. I think you’re looking at the wrong year? 2009 evolved from the far west-pacific and was full blown modoki niño by the end of summer. Check out the VP200 standing wave in the hovmollers on Paul Roundy’s site (which I linked last week IIRC). I wish this were a 2009 type evolution though. With -QBO establishing by the end of this year it would be the perfect winter setup here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted April 11, 2023 Report Share Posted April 11, 2023 First time I've seen it not raining in the last 56+ hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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