PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

The last part of this extended trough is a ULL that moves through Oregon tomorrow.    Per the ECMWF... the rain from that system will mostly stay south of Olympia with more sun again farther north.  

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phase 7 strongly favors PNW troughing in April... its likely why the models have been trending more troughy as things get closer and why I expected any ridging shown in the models to fall apart.  But there is a very slow pattern change (retrogression) happening already which will eventually favor less troughing in the west and more troughing in the east.    We need to get into phase 8 and 1 for that to happen.    

I’ll believe eastern troughing when I see it. The low frequency/base state pattern this year has been one of unrelenting ridging out here. And not all of it is MJO/ENSO, there are other reasons it has been so stable to date.

I’ll bet you the end result is a week or less of troughing/ULL activity, then right back to ridging. I’ve seen this type of pattern before, highly unlikely it’s going anywhere this year. Was looking for a wintry in March/April which is more common post-niña and would have been a reason for optimism, but when it failed to appear I knew we were f**ked.

[Timmy]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today will play out a little differently than the last few days... ECMWF shows a decent amount of sun by this afternoon.    

 

Sun would be nice

[Phil]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?!

[Phil]

In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross.

But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf

[Tyler Mode]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross.

But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf

Mine was like I sniffed liquid bleach.  Very strange and nasty times.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?!

Need Yellowstone to blow. Would deliver historic #blessings 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross.

But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf

Peanut butter, onions, anything burning, coffee were the weirdest and hardest to get back.  Poop smelled so different as well, it was actually not as bad, which was nice having a kid in diapers.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Mine was like I sniffed liquid bleach.  Very strange and nasty times.

Good description, it was like smelling the chlorine floaty in a hot tub.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember TONGA TUA VILOA?!

Patterns have been unusually stuck for long periods of time since that event.    No idea if it is related but it has been quite unusual since last spring.   Just because the west has been colder does not mean it had no effect.   But you are probably just trolling as usual.   

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Need Yellowstone to blow. Would deliver historic #blessings 

Are you feeling suicidal again?   We are here for you.  

[T-Town]

39 with a wind driven light rain on my walk a bit ago. Brisk! Gotta get those steps in though. 

[Phil]

East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD.

Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed.

Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year.

[Phishy Wx]

Tongo > Russia

keep it going....

[Deweydog]

First snowless 4/11 since 2021 here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD.

Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed.

Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year.

Someone needs to tell the northern Pacific Ocean that it's lagging way behind.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

East-Pacific is on fire now. Plus -PDO/-NPMM, +SPMM, WPAC cooling, and IO warming/+IOD.

Amazingly different from any El Niño onset in the post-1998 era. In fact it’s essentially the inverse of how 2015/16 developed.

Does resemble 1997/98 to some degree, except there is much more -PDO/-NPMM this year.

Just browsing through historical SSTA maps... looks maybe similar to 2009 right now in terms of Nino development which seemed to start from the east and build west.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Seems like tropical volcanoes are better at promoting worldwide distribution of atmospheric SO2 thanks to their positioning with regard to global circulation, but every little bit helps.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like tropical volcanoes are better at promoting worldwide distribution of atmospheric SO2 thanks to their positioning with regard to global circulation, but every little bit helps.

could have regional/hemispheric effects 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

could have regional/hemispheric effects 

Definitely. It’s right on the other side of our biggest weather maker.

[Phishy Wx]

double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet.  2 vents?

 

 

[RentonHill]

13 hours ago, Deweydog said:

It seems like that spot is still dealing with aftershocks from the mammoth slide in February 1996. According to the old guard it was never a problem spot before that but since then it has unleashed slides every few years. I think the last biggie was December 2015.

Speaking of 1996, that thing was epic. The fact that it closed both directions is amazing considering the lay of the land there as the debris flow made it all the way to the river. I remember traversing the unpaved detour they made available about a week after the slide and it was seriously sketchy even in my BEASTLY ‘88 S-10. 

I wanted a Syclone soooo bad. 

1 hour ago, Phil said:

In other news, smell/taste are gone/messed up. Everything resembles exhaust or gasoline to me. Weird. And gross.

But feel much better now overall! All body aches and fever symptoms vanished suddenly at ~ 3AM, which is exactly when my sense of smell disappeared. wtf

I got it last summer and we had a bunch of portable A/Cs in the house. I started pulling them all apart because I thought they were blowing toxic refrigerant/freon gas. I laugh at it now but for a few hours I was legit like Saul's older brother who went crazy pulling out all the electric wiring in his house. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet.  2 vents?

 

 

wow!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 hours ago, MossMan said:

I have only gotten back about 40% of my taste and smell from when I had it back in late November.

Sucks. Didn’t affect my senses of taste and smell even when I had it. Have heard that the new variants are less likely to do that.

[Phishy Wx]

FTR, I've never had Covid.  not sure how i've avoided it.

 

working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine

[Anti Marine Layer]

Mt. Lassen should blow its top some day

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

FTR, I've never had Covid.  not sure how i've avoided it.

working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine

Could have had an asymptomatic case and not even realized it.

Pretty much everyone is going to get it sooner or later.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

double eruption? watch the vid in bottom right of lower tweet.  2 vents?

 

 

Someone should kidnap Putin in a helicopter and drop him on top with a parachute to slow his descent.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Rain’s let up here, had a total of close to 2” the last two days. Chilly and cloudy now. 43 degrees. Ended up with a 51/41 yesterday.

[Phishy Wx]

43 here too, but we've only gotten like .4"

[Cascadia_Wx]

So crazy how the warmth next weekend completely collapsed. Now it looks like we could be lucky to hit 60, which is pretty much just average, maybe even a degree or two below at that point. I always love seeing warmth fail on the models, but the ferocity of it the last few weekends has surprised even me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Someone should kidnap Putin in a helicopter and drop him on top with a parachute to slow his descent.

Or without. Doesn’t really change the outcome.

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Mt. Lassen should blow its top some day

Long Valley Caldera is the real giant in California. 240 cubic miles of magma under that thing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

43 here too, but we've only gotten like .4"

That’s decent for over there.

[T-Town]

8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

FTR, I've never had Covid.  not sure how i've avoided it.

 

working from home and no kids helps I'd imagine

Never had it either. I’m sure working from home and having grown kids is a factor. Wife has been sick a few times during Covid but never tested positive so I assume she’s dodged it as well. 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Someone needs to tell the northern Pacific Ocean that it's lagging way behind.

I think the -PDO/-NPMM signature and EPAC warming constructively interfere IE tend to reinforce/exist together. El Niño insets during the last cold phase (1950s-70s) also tended to feature the EPAC/South Pacific warming, while the more modern (and previous warm phase) El Niño onsets focused in the west-central pacific.

2015 was the latter, historic +NPMM/+PDO and El Niño that evolved out of the WPAC which actually started during winter 2014/15, and evolved rapidly from there.

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just browsing through historical SSTA maps... looks maybe similar to 2009 right now in terms of Nino development which seemed to start from the east and build west.  

I think you’re looking at the wrong year? 2009 evolved from the far west-pacific and was full blown modoki niño by the end of summer. Check out the VP200 standing wave in the hovmollers on Paul Roundy’s site (which I linked last week IIRC).

I wish this were a 2009 type evolution though. With -QBO establishing by the end of this year it would be the perfect winter setup here.

[Tyler Mode]

First time I've seen it not raining in the last 56+ hours.