September 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Iowawx]

Heavy rain is moving into the Cedar Rapids area now.

[Hawkeye]

Heavy rain is moving into the Cedar Rapids area now.

 

It looked like heavy rain was moving in, but the red faded and the yellow and orange on radar just isn't heavy at all.  All I'm getting is light to moderate rain.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the rain should mostly miss Dubuque here this morning.

[Iowawx]

I've gotten 0.27" of rain so far this morning. Looks like we will get more later on today. 

 

Last night's Euro had a widespread band of 5-7 inches of rain across Iowa over the next week. I really hope that happens. 

[Niko]

Great, it’s doing better than mine then.

I doubt it, you are a pro in this.

[Hawkeye]

That was disappointing.  The cells were strengthening as they approached CR, then poofed out at the last second.  I only picked up 0.16".

 

Over an inch fell from Swisher to Mount Vernon as a couple heavy cells passed through that area.

[Niko]

After dipping in the mid 40s last night, temps have recovered somewhat in the upper 50s w mostly cloudy skies. Some appreciable rains are in the forecast for later tanite and early tomorrow morning.

[Niko]

Anyone aware of Lorenzo (CAT4) 145mph over in the east Atlantic.....he is moving fast also at 14mph. Where the heck did he show up all of a suddenly

[westMJim]

The H/L here at Grand Rapids yesterday was 68/50 while it felt cool that was still above average for the day and that was the 17 day in a row of above average mean here at Grand Rapids. The mean for the month is now at 67.0 and that should drop over the next couple of days. For today the average H/L is now at 68/48. The record high for today is 86 set in 1946 and the record low is 29 set in 1989.  The warmest minimum is 65 set in 1973.  And the coldest maximum is 47 set in 1942. Last year the H/L was 65/46.

The temperature here fell into to 48 at my house (52 at GRR) before going up over night but it was cool in the house this morning so for the first time this fall season I did indeed turn the heat on.

[Niko]

Looks like some embedded rainfall coming for my area......

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI438 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280845-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-438 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and earlyevening. The probability for severe weather remains low. Hail andgusty outflow winds will be the main threat if a strong topotentially severe thunderstorm is able to develop. Favored locationwill be west of US-23 with a diminishing threat into the overnighthours.Locally heavy rainfall will then be the main hazard intotonight mainly across the Tri- Cities. Locations that experiencerepeated showers and thunderstorms will have potential to see minorurban and small stream flooding.

[Thunder98]

Out in the Pacific NW, Winter has came early in the Mountains and in Montana. A forecast low of 16F on Tuesday morning and heavy snow this weekend. I wonder what this means for the Plains and Midwest soon?

 

 

[Niko]

Out in the Pacific NW, Winter has came early in the Mountains and in Montana. A forecast low of 16F on Tuesday morning and heavy snow this weekend. I wonder what this means for the Plains and Midwest soon?

 

 

GreatFalls,MT wx.PNG

It can go both ways...all depends on Ma Nature and of course, weather patterns as well.

 

Gotta tell ya, if felt good seeing that type of forecast in your above post. Its been awhile.

[Niko]

Currently, a very pleasant 68F w mostly sunny skies.

 

Near record heat early next week (85-90F potentially) b4, Autumn really shows its presence by later that week.

[jaster220]

Maybe Jaster can really cash in for a change!

 

I'm not getting married, but my lawn needs mowing and I was planning to work on another project that's been a year in the making so Yeah, this WILL happen.. ...guaranteed!  

 

[Stormy]

That was disappointing. The cells were strengthening as they approached CR, then poofed out at the last second. I only picked up 0.16".

 

Over an inch fell from Swisher to Mount Vernon as a couple heavy cells passed through that area.

Disappointing here as well, but here storms kinda kept forming and back building and scraped by just north or south. I ended up with only 0.14”.

 

More storms trying to get get going from west central to southeast Iowa.

 

Some nice training storms in central Illinois. Like most of the models were showing, that’s where the heavy stuff is.

[Stormy]

You guys probably noticed that the SPC upgraded an area to enhanced risk, but I’ll post anyway. Are any members in the enhanced risk area?

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Hawkeye]

The UK and Euro continue to show a 3-5" band of rain from sw through ec Iowa over the next five days, with much of that coming late Tuesday into Wednesday when the front hangs up over southeast Iowa and a low tracks along it.

[Stormhunter87]

You guys probably noticed that the SPC upgraded an area to enhanced risk, but I’ll post anyway. Are any members in the enhanced risk area?

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Got family in North Central Illinois. They are barely in the enhanced zone.

[Hawkeye]

Some nice training storms in central Illinois. Like most of the models were showing, that’s where the heavy stuff is.

 

3-5" has fallen in that Illinois band and it's still going strong.  Models are blowing up even more storms over the same area tonight.

[bud2380]

From the NWS in Great Falls, MT

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blizzard conditions possible.
Total snow accumulations of mostly 15 to 36 inches on the
plains, except 7 to 20 inches at lower elevations of Liberty
County. Note that even higher amounts are expected in the
mountains. North to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph could gust
as high as 40 mph, causing dangerous wind chill temperatures
of zero to 10 degrees above zero.

[Hawkeye]

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for east-central and southeast Iowa.

[Stormy]

The UK and Euro continue to show a 3-5" band of rain from sw through ec Iowa over the next five days, with much of that coming late Tuesday into Wednesday when the front hangs up over southeast Iowa and a low tracks along it.

Problem is, that’s far enough away that it could easily change.

 

Those storms to the northwest aren’t gaining strength nearly fast enough to suit me and more are firing in far se. Iowa, or to my se. I’m on the northwest edge of the tornado watch area and not quite in the enhanced risk either. The severe storm watch covers my area though. I would love to see at least one more strong storm with torrential rain before the season ends.

[OKwx2k4]

From the NWS in Great Falls, MT

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING

TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blizzard conditions possible.

Total snow accumulations of mostly 15 to 36 inches on the

plains, except 7 to 20 inches at lower elevations of Liberty

County. Note that even higher amounts are expected in the

mountains. North to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph could gust

as high as 40 mph, causing dangerous wind chill temperatures

of zero to 10 degrees above zero.

I want to be in Montana, so badly.

[jaster220]

I want to be in Montana, so badly.

 

And suddenly..blue..and lots of it! 

 

[jaster220]

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for east-central and southeast Iowa.

 

 

.40" here with the first wave. Already beat last weekend's "event". 

 

..and this:

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

550 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

MIZ064>066-071>073-280145-

Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-

Including the cities of Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, South Haven,

Kalamazoo, and Battle Creek

550 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

...Thunderstorms Moving in from Lake Michigan...

 

An area of thunderstorms and very heavy rain has formed over Lake

Michigan and is slowly spreading into Southwest Michigan. Wind

gusts to 40 mph along with abundant lightning, pea-size hail, and

very heavy rain can be expected over the next several hours.

Drivers should be alert for ponded water on roads and potentially

difficult driving conditions.

[Hawkeye]

*sigh*  It's looking like Cedar Rapids will get little or nothing out of the evening rain, so the entire day was a dud.  Frankly, I did not really understand the severe watch for the cool, cloudy area north of the front.

[Niko]

And suddenly..blue..and lots of it! 

 

20190929 1200z 1st Snowstorm.gif

Amigo...its coming!!!!

[Niko]

Currently at 62F under dreary conditions outside.

[Bellona]

I got 1.3 inches at my house on the South side of Waterloo.

[jaster220]

The Mitt takin a hit tonight. As Tom said this morning hopefully a sign of some atmospheric gear shifting in the works..

 

 

NWS issued us a headline even:

 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

MIC005-015-025-045-067-077-081-139-159-280715-
/O.NEW.KGRR.FA.Y.0019.190928T0119Z-190928T0715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Calhoun MI-Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Kent MI-Ottawa MI-Ionia MI-
Barry MI-Kalamazoo MI-Eaton MI-
919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
Calhoun County in south central Michigan...
Allegan County in southwestern Michigan...
Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan...
Kent County in southwestern Michigan...
Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan...
Ionia County in south central Michigan...
Barry County in southwestern Michigan...
Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...
Eaton County in south central Michigan...

* Until 315 AM EDT.

* At 917 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms. This will
cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result
in minor flooding in the advisory area, as well as rapid rises on
small streams.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Grand Rapids, Holland, Grand Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,
Hastings, Marshall, Paw Paw, and Allegan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

[Niko]

Currently getting some moderate rainfall. Temp at 61F.

[Niko]

The Mitt takin a hit tonight. As Tom said this morning hopefully a sign of some atmospheric gear shifting in the works..

 

20190927 9 pm Surf Map.jpg

 

NWS issued us a headline even:

 

Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

MIC005-015-025-045-067-077-081-139-159-280715-

/O.NEW.KGRR.FA.Y.0019.190928T0119Z-190928T0715Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Calhoun MI-Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Kent MI-Ottawa MI-Ionia MI-

Barry MI-Kalamazoo MI-Eaton MI-

919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

 

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...

Calhoun County in south central Michigan...

Allegan County in southwestern Michigan...

Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan...

Kent County in southwestern Michigan...

Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan...

Ionia County in south central Michigan...

Barry County in southwestern Michigan...

Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

Eaton County in south central Michigan...

 

* Until 315 AM EDT.

 

* At 917 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated

heavy rain due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms. This will

cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result

in minor flooding in the advisory area, as well as rapid rises on

small streams.

 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...

Grand Rapids, Holland, Grand Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,

Hastings, Marshall, Paw Paw, and Allegan.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.

 

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding

of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Can you imagine a radar looking like this in Winter w plenty of cold air around. How sweet would that be.

[Tom]

The Mitt takin a hit tonight. As Tom said this morning hopefully a sign of some atmospheric gear shifting in the works..

 

20190927 9 pm Surf Map.jpg

 

NWS issued us a headline even:

 

Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

MIC005-015-025-045-067-077-081-139-159-280715-

/O.NEW.KGRR.FA.Y.0019.190928T0119Z-190928T0715Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Calhoun MI-Allegan MI-Van Buren MI-Kent MI-Ottawa MI-Ionia MI-

Barry MI-Kalamazoo MI-Eaton MI-

919 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

 

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

 

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...

Calhoun County in south central Michigan...

Allegan County in southwestern Michigan...

Van Buren County in southwestern Michigan...

Kent County in southwestern Michigan...

Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan...

Ionia County in south central Michigan...

Barry County in southwestern Michigan...

Kalamazoo County in southwestern Michigan...

Eaton County in south central Michigan...

 

* Until 315 AM EDT.

 

* At 917 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated

heavy rain due to multiple rounds of thunderstorms. This will

cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result

in minor flooding in the advisory area, as well as rapid rises on

small streams.

 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...

Grand Rapids, Holland, Grand Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek,

Hastings, Marshall, Paw Paw, and Allegan.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.

 

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding

of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Glad to hear Jaster!  I was thinking about you and our S MI members throughout the day yesterday.  For a couple of reasons actually...1) My cousin transports cars via semi and he stopped in Battle Creek, MI a couple times throughout this week. 2) One of my clients was supposed to drive to Ann Arbor, MI before the evening rush hour to see his daughter at University of Michigan.  He asked me if the rains would continue throughout Friday evening into S MI and I told him it looks wet!  Hope you scored some good drenching rainfall!

[Tom]

The skies were electric last night.  I was driving down I-294 S past ORD last night around 7:15pm and the lightning show was fun to see looking towards the south.  Not only that, but when I drove back home around 8:30pm, back up the same hwy N towards ORD, a massive, I mean, powerful lightning bolt struck a transformer about 1/2 mi ahead of me on the side of the hwy.  Everyone tapped their breaks and the lights alongside the hwy went off.  That was one experience I'll never forget.  The "boom" was incredibly loud.

 

Speaking of boomers, our local photographer (Barry Butler) snapped some real nice photos last night of the vivid lightning show...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Here in Grand Rapids we got some lightning (not as much as to the south of here) and I recorded 1.68" of rain fall.

[westMJim]

The mean for September at Grand Rapids is now at 66.7°.  With just 3 more days to go it looks very much like this year will end up being one of the warmest September’s on record. The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 69/50 and that was the 18^th day in a row of above average temperatures.  For today the average H/L is 68/48. The record high is 86 set in 1905. The record low is 27 set in 1991. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1971 and the coldest maximum is 42 set in 1912. Last year the H/L was 61/45.

[Niko]

The skies were electric last night.  I was driving down I-294 S past ORD last night around 7:15pm and the lightning show was fun to see looking towards the south.  Not only that, but when I drove back home around 8:30pm, back up the same hwy N towards ORD, a massive, I mean, powerful lightning bolt struck a transformer about 1/2 mi ahead of me on the side of the hwy.  Everyone tapped their breaks and the lights alongside the hwy went off.  That was one experience I'll never forget.  The "boom" was incredibly loud.

 

Speaking of boomers, our local photographer (Barry Butler) snapped some real nice photos last night of the vivid lightning show...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I saw your radar last night and man, it was full of bright red, blue colors. Great city btw.

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and wet outside. The rainfall is pretty much ova w, but cloudy skies will prevail for the remainder of the day w some peeks of sunshine hopefully later in the afternoon. Temps are at 65F. Now comes the heat from the south as temps soar between 85-90F both Mon n Tues, especially Detroit on South. Some record highs are likely to be broken.

 

Rainfall total since yesterdays rainfall was 0.74". Not too shabby at all.

[westMJim]

 Here are the links to the fall color reports so far this year

https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/129-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-current-season/884-mw-foliage-report-6-2019

and last year at this time
https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/175-foliage-reports/foliage-reports-midwest-us/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive/foliage-reports-midwest-us-archive-2018/825-mw-foliage-report-7-2018

In my area there is some spotty color and some trees are now losing their leaves

[Niko]

Here in Grand Rapids we got some lightning (not as much as to the south of here) and I recorded 1.68" of rain fall.

WOW....impressive. Much better than my area, that's for sure.