October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it was over Memorial Day weekend and it was ridiculous. I was actually out in a friends sailboat in the San Juans and it may just have been the worst Memorial Day weekend up here ever.

 

 

 

You mean "best" Memorial Day weekend right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty wet.

 

A dry spell is not surprising.

 

Yeah we had a wet September. October has had one wet week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had 3.17" of rain while I was gone. Most in the past week. Not a bad weekly total for October, but we'll still end the month significantly drier than average. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ended up with 0.73” yesterday. Cleared out quickly last night and there’s not a cloud in the sky this morning

[TT-SEA]

Yeah we had a wet September. October has had one wet week. 

 

 

Focused heavy rain... long dry periods.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Focused heavy rain... long dry periods.   

 

You should really live somewhere else. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Came home to my absolute least favorite weather. Weak front washing out/dying directly overhead with extremely mild/warm conditions. 

[TT-SEA]

You should really live somewhere else. 

 

 

Actually... I am perfectly fine with normal.

 

Sometimes it works out where we get to normal rain but it comes in bunches... that is not too unusual.   We normally have a decent number of dry days each month even in the winter.

[ShawniganLake]

The ICON has abandoned us.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs still pretty meh with the clipper. Still should lead to chilly crisp days and nights towards the end of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ICON has abandoned us.

 

Over now.

[TacomaWaWx]

At 4.02” this is now the rainiest month we’ve had all year in Tacoma beating January (3.95”). Another quarter of an inch would make it the wettest month since April 2018 (5.61”).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to release my winter forecast soon. After reviewing the facts my optimism has waned about the coming winter, but we've been on a good 3 year run.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah we had a wet September. October has had one wet week.

Not unusual for the bulk of October or September rainfall to happen in a single week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not unusual for the bulk of October or September rainfall to happen in a single week.

 

Yeah seems like I miss a lot of the fall rains around here. I'm usually gone at least 1 week in October and the past 3 years it has happened to fall during the wettest period of October. 

[Jesse]

The ICON has abandoned us.

Looking more and more like a non event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a 2004-05 type redux is probably our most likely scenario in terms of observed weather. Phil, I'm not calling this an analog, just saying moving forward if we were somewhat close to that script I would not be surprised.

[Omegaraptor]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Top 5 bad year for mountain snow.

 

We are due. Though we may have dodged a bullet here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall the 12z is OK.

[TT-SEA]

Overall the 12z is OK.

 

 

The 300+ hours stuff makes it all good for you.   

[ShawniganLake]

12z ensemble still has a few cold members but any momentum towards a second surge of cold air behind the weak clipper system is pretty much gone

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty drizzly still here. Down to 53 from our midnight high of 58, definitely could be a midnight low tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 300+ hours stuff makes it all good for you.   

 

I posted my winter forecast over in that thread. I think you will like it. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 57F. Now 59F.

[TT-SEA]

I posted my winter forecast over in that thread. I think you will like it. 

 

 

Its all a crap shoot.   Nobody saw February and March coming last year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skies are clearing now in Salem. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Should be a nice dryout coming and maybe only a couple showers on Saturday. Nothing really too interesting on the horizon besides cool morning lows for the foreseeable future. Maybe the action will pick up again around the second week of November.

[TacomaWaWx]

Its all a crap shoot. Nobody saw February and March coming last year.

There’s been a lot of speculation about how good or bad this winter will be. I believe we will see some action in December or January but anyone’s guess is just as good at this point. Nobody saw February 2019 coming, according to climo and everyone, it should have been impossible. Just goes to show how little we really know at this point, it’s all a guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There’s been a lot of speculation about how good or bad this winter will be. I believe we will see some action in December or January but anyone’s guess is just as good at this point. Nobody saw February 2019 coming, according to climo and everyone, it should have been impossible. Just goes to show how little we really know at this point, it’s all a guess.

 

For reference my forecast for last winter pretty much bombed. 

[Jesse]

I think a 2004-05 type redux is probably our most likely scenario in terms of observed weather. Phil, I'm not calling this an analog, just saying moving forward if we were somewhat close to that script I would not be surprised.

Reverse psychology is a powerful thing in the weather world.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reverse psychology is a powerful thing in the weather world.

 

I would encourage you to check out my forecast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I considered years like 85-86, 71-72 specifically, but ultimately I think we will diverge from those paths. 77-78 may be an possible anolog. My primaries are 2004-05, 2012-13, 1969-70. I really like the 1969-70 analog.

My secondary analogs would probably be 1959-60, 1980-81, 1977-78, 1985-86.

I'm not a huge believer in considering solar.

[TT-SEA]

I honestly thought a Pineapple Express was just an AR that began in around Hawaii, didn’t think there were any real guidelines besides that. I’m still not as knowledgeable as many of you are on stuff like this so I’m always interested to learn. Either way AR, Pineapple Express or whatever it brought some record rainfall.

 

 

Cliff Mas called it an AR:

 

[Winterdog]

Sitting at 6.4” for the month after 1.92” in last 24 hrs. Hopefully we will have some clear nights coming to put some more chill in the month. 54F with some breaks in the clouds

[Jesse]

I would encourage you to check out my forecast.

I did. Probably one of the more detailed despaircasts I’ve seen here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I did. Probably one of the more detailed despaircasts I’ve seen here.

 

We all know there is a very good chance it mostly verifies. I do not mind being wrong though. 

[Jesse]

We all know there is a very good chance it mostly verifies. I do not mind being wrong though.

Set the bar as low as humanly possible and you will never be disappointed.

[Omegaraptor]

Set the bar as low as humanly possible and you will never be disappointed.

Good point. I’m predicting a cross between 1976-77, 1980-81, and 2014-15 for this winter.

[TT-SEA]

The opposite of course is to enthusiastically mention any similarity at all to our epic winters and the set the bar ridiculously high in people's mind.... and vehemently shoot down any mention of the really bad winters.

 

I see that as well on here.