Timmy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just one run, but Phil has warned us the PV in AK could be the proverbial fly in the ointment. Andrew “ it’s just one run”, also andrew “this May be one of the biggest model busts of all time” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The rug-pull... Never seems to fail does it? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Andrew “ it’s just one run”, also andrew “this May be one of the biggest model busts of all time” Oh no, that was just some "food for thought." Some chicken poop for the soul. It is always wise to remember we have been hurt in January before. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 By Monday the 6th conditions appear to be warm and dry. Likely an inversion scenario at the service with a mild pleasant day in the mountains and on the coast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The worry now is that once again we are wasting the heart of winter.So wise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Our old friend the West Coast Warm Finger is coming back! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Sun angles are coming in higher 2day compared to yesterday 2. Ugh. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The ICON definitely supports the GFS solution. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hmmm, GEFS continues to be very different with the block a touch west, not much amplification, nor tilt. Still better than the awful 00z EPS. I'm honestly thinking ensembles are going to come around in a big way before Monday and not just feature piddly chilly onshore flow because cold/colder rain doesn't excite me. Such a massive pattern change coming it appears, so quite a bit for models to resolve. Good night. Cya for the EUROI didn't think the 00Z EPS was awful. Not as epic as the GFS for sure but the pattern evolution is still very much present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Sun angles are coming in higher 2day compared to yesterday 2. Ugh. Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June! They are going to make it difficult when we finally see some cold troughing in late March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 They are going to make it difficult when we finally see some cold troughing in late March. We are quite overdue for a cold spring overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June! They were CONSIDERABLY lower in early August 1981 compared to late June of said year. It snowed the next January. Now put your hackles down. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 At least this is another good run for mountain snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Score? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Thank you Jesse for finding a silver lining in this very dark cloud this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It is getting SERIOUS boyz!!! Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather8:42 am PSTPrint DAY DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY TODAY DEC 28 PM Showers 45°41° 40% SSE 9 mph 79% SUN DEC 29 Partly Cloudy 47°37° 20% SE 4 mph 83% MON DEC 30 Partly Cloudy 44°40° 10% SSE 5 mph 84% TUE DEC 31 Showers 45°44° 50% SSE 14 mph 86% WED JAN 1 Showers 48°43° 50% SSW 6 mph 91% THU JAN 2 Showers 48°40° 60% SSE 14 mph 92% FRI JAN 3 Showers 42°35° 50% SW 7 mph 81% SAT JAN 4 Rain/Snow 40°36° 50% SSE 8 mph 81% SUN JAN 5 Rain/Snow Showers 40°35° 40% S 7 mph 83% MON JAN 6 Rain/Snow 38°34° 50% SSE 8 mph 85% TUE JAN 7 Snow Showers 39°33° 40% SSE 8 mph 81% WED JAN 8 Rain/Snow 39°34° 40% SSE 8 mph 83% THU JAN 9 Snow Showers 39°34° 40% SSE 7 mph 83% FRI JAN 10 Snow Showers 38°32° 40% SSE 7 mph 84% SAT JAN 11 Snow Showers 38°33° 40% SSE 6 mph 82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The latest CFS says there will be literally nothing of interest in the next two weeks. But then things begin to change. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 NWS in Spokane and Pendleton have already put the 8-14 day forecast maps up on their home page. I would hope that they get excited like most weather geeks. Of course snow is more common East of the mountains so they are probably not as geeked as the ones West of the CascadesI was thinking the same thing. I’m sure they get just as excited as anyone but need to tone down the excitement in the media world until we get close to the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 My secret source at the nws just called and said throw it out. It was a huge warm outlier in the ensembles. Whew. Crisis averted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 So let's go down the list. Models we have lost today: GFSICONCFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It appears the GEM may be a bit better, but it is still running. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles!Lemmeguess, mild? sunny? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 So let's go down the list. Models we have lost today: GFSICONCFSThe CFS looked good imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Lol winter cancel after one morning of runs. There will be 2-3 more winter uncancels and cancels today as we continue our model riding. 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Lemmeguess, mild? sunny?PREFERENCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 So let's go down the list. Models we have lost today: GFSICONCFSHas this event ever even been within the ICON range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Lol winter cancel after one morning of runs. There will be 2-3 more winter uncancels and cancels as we continue our model riding.I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The operational is on it's own (mostly, except for another member, #6), with that warm solution. Crisis averted. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”. You are turning responding to my posts into a full time job. He is smart and can see the models. The GFS this morning was a massive step back. GEM looks more like previous GFS operational runs. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 PREFERENCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EXTREMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles! I’m in rockaway. Where you at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I’m in rockaway. Where you at?Ilwaco. Lower sun angles for me! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 By 12z on the 4th the GFS operational is colder than the ensemble mean. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Ilwaco. Lower sun angles for me! lucky! Sun’s angle finally got high enough for me to see it over the clouds here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”. I've been around long enough to understand Andrew lol. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.