December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy]

Just one run, but Phil has warned us the PV in AK could be the proverbial fly in the ointment.

 

Andrew “ it’s just one run”, also andrew “this May be one of the biggest model busts of all time”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The rug-pull...

 

Never seems to fail does it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Andrew “ it’s just one run”, also andrew “this May be one of the biggest model busts of all time”

 

Oh no, that was just some "food for thought." Some chicken poop for the soul. It is always wise to remember we have been hurt in January before. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By Monday the 6th conditions appear to be warm and dry. Likely an inversion scenario at the service with a mild pleasant day in the mountains and on the coast. 

[FroYoBro]

The worry now is that once again we are wasting the heart of winter.

So wise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our old friend the West Coast Warm Finger is coming back!

 

[Deweydog]

Sun angles are coming in higher 2day compared to yesterday 2. Ugh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ICON definitely supports the GFS solution. 

[AbbyJr]

Hmmm, GEFS continues to be very different with the block a touch west, not much amplification, nor tilt. Still better than the awful 00z EPS. I'm honestly thinking ensembles are going to come around in a big way before Monday and not just feature piddly chilly onshore flow because cold/colder rain doesn't excite me. Such a massive pattern change coming it appears, so quite a bit for models to resolve.

 

Good night. Cya for the EURO

I didn't think the 00Z EPS was awful. Not as epic as the GFS for sure but the pattern evolution is still very much present.

[Jesse]

Sun angles are coming in higher 2day compared to yesterday 2. Ugh.

 

Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June!

 

They are going to make it difficult when we finally see some cold troughing in late March.

[Jesse]

They are going to make it difficult when we finally see some cold troughing in late March.

 

We are quite overdue for a cold spring overall.

[Deweydog]

Be sure to remind us every day then absolutely stop talking about them for six months starting in late June!

They were CONSIDERABLY lower in early August 1981 compared to late June of said year. It snowed the next January.

 

Now put your hackles down.

[ttt]

     

[Jesse]

At least this is another good run for mountain snow.

[Jesse]

Score?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you Jesse for finding a silver lining in this very dark cloud this morning. 

[kokaneekidz]

It is getting SERIOUS boyz!!!

 

Mukilteo, WA 10 Day Weather

8:42 am PST

Print

DAY

 

DESCRIPTION HIGH / LOW PRECIP WIND HUMIDITY

TODAY

 

DEC 28

PM Showers

45^°41^°

40%

SSE 9 mph 79%

SUN

 

DEC 29

Partly Cloudy

47^°37^°

20%

SE 4 mph 83%

MON

 

DEC 30

Partly Cloudy

44^°40^°

10%

SSE 5 mph 84%

TUE

 

DEC 31

Showers

45^°44^°

50%

SSE 14 mph 86%

WED

 

JAN 1

Showers

48^°43^°

50%

SSW 6 mph 91%

THU

 

JAN 2

Showers

48^°40^°

60%

SSE 14 mph 92%

FRI

 

JAN 3

Showers

42^°35^°

50%

SW 7 mph 81%

SAT

 

JAN 4

Rain/Snow

40^°36^°

50%

SSE 8 mph 81%

SUN

 

JAN 5

Rain/Snow Showers

40^°35^°

40%

S 7 mph 83%

MON

 

JAN 6

Rain/Snow

38^°34^°

50%

SSE 8 mph 85%

TUE

 

JAN 7

Snow Showers

39^°33^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 81%

WED

 

JAN 8

Rain/Snow

39^°34^°

40%

SSE 8 mph 83%

THU

 

JAN 9

Snow Showers

39^°34^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 83%

FRI

 

JAN 10

Snow Showers

38^°32^°

40%

SSE 7 mph 84%

SAT

 

JAN 11

Snow Showers

38^°33^°

40%

SSE 6 mph 82%

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The latest CFS says there will be literally nothing of interest in the next two weeks. But then things begin to change. 

 

[Blizzard777]

NWS in Spokane and Pendleton have already put the 8-14 day forecast maps up on their home page. I would hope that they get excited like most weather geeks. Of course snow is more common East of the mountains so they are probably not as geeked as the ones West of the Cascades

I was thinking the same thing. I’m sure they get just as excited as anyone but need to tone down the excitement in the media world until we get close to the event.  

[High Desert Mat?]

My secret source at the nws just called and said throw it out. It was a huge warm outlier in the ensembles. Whew. Crisis averted.

[Deweydog]

Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So let's go down the list. 

 

Models we have lost today:

 

GFS

ICON

CFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It appears the GEM may be a bit better, but it is still running. 

[Jesse]

Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles!

Lemmeguess, mild? sunny?

[Esquimalt]

So let's go down the list. 

 

Models we have lost today:

 

GFS

ICON

CFS

The CFS looked good imo

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol winter cancel after one morning of runs. There will be 2-3 more winter uncancels and cancels today as we continue our model riding.

[Deweydog]

Lemmeguess, mild? sunny?

PREFERENCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

So let's go down the list.

 

Models we have lost today:

 

GFS

ICON

CFS

Has this event ever even been within the ICON range.

[Jesse]

Lol winter cancel after one morning of runs. There will be 2-3 more winter uncancels and cancels as we continue our model riding.

I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”.

[Esquimalt]

The operational is on it's own (mostly, except for another member, #6), with that warm solution.  Crisis averted.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”.

 

You are turning responding to my posts into a full time job. He is smart and can see the models. The GFS this morning was a massive step back. 

 

GEM looks more like previous GFS operational runs. 

[Jesse]

PREFERENCES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

EXTREMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Timmy]

Delightful morning here at the coast, despite the low solar and higher sun angles!

I’m in rockaway. Where you at?

[Deweydog]

I’m in rockaway. Where you at?

Ilwaco. Lower sun angles for me!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By 12z on the 4th the GFS operational is colder than the ensemble mean.

[Timmy]

Ilwaco. Lower sun angles for me!

lucky! Sun’s angle finally got high enough for me to see it over the clouds here

[TacomaWaWx]

I know you’ve said before that you have trouble telling when posts should be taken seriously or not sometimes, so I will tell you it is really in your best interest to ignore Andrew’s “model interpretation”.

I've been around long enough to understand Andrew lol.

[ShawniganLake]