Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Oliver]

Gotta say, weak and anticlimactic as it is, I haven't seen a CZ position in this spot in a long, long time. All the spots that have watched everywhere 5 miles to the north score for hours on end are finally getting their dues tonight.

 

It looks anemic as hell at this point, but here's hoping the approaching arctic front fires thing up a bit. Looks like it's finally approaching the Skagit/Snohomish County line.

[IceKing]

Am I seeing this right? Convergence Zone seems to be attempting to push back north

[Gradient Keeper]

Snowing at Hoquiam...

[Oliver]

Am I seeing this right? Convergence Zone seems to be attempting to push back north

8555da7f-b428-4819-850f-25168f9e2957.gif

Hard to say. The south end is remaining relatively static while there's some movement to the north overall. That indicates that there's certainly two different airmasses competing there. But with cold air flowing down from the north, that movement probably won't be particularly meaningful. I wouldn't expect it to drift north by any significant amount unless you live in White Center.

[kokaneekidz]

[Gradient Keeper]

Bellingham down to 21. I believe the 12z EURO forecast the low at 24, 12z GFS 16. GFS is going to be closer and is handling the arctic air progression better.

[MikeInEverett]

Light snow here again. Wasn’t expecting that.

[kokaneekidz]

Am I seeing this right? Convergence Zone seems to be attempting to push back north

8555da7f-b428-4819-850f-25168f9e2957.gif

At this juncture in the game it is more of a deformation boundary layer between Pacific Maritime air and polar continental atmosphere. It is almost rotating in a gyroscopic manner...... Truly unique

[snow maniac]

Nothing here not even one flake.

[Oliver]

Bellingham down to 21. I believe the 12z EURO forecast the low at 24, 12z GFS 16. GFS is going to be closer and is handling the arctic air progression better.

6 degrees at Mansfield, which is only 20-30 miles from Wenatchee. It does seem like the cold air is intruding further and earlier than anticipated.

[Oliver]

They probably got confused with Swinomish Channel up by La Conner. LMFAO

HAHAHAHAHAHA ROFLMAO LOL LOL LOL OMFG DYINGGGGGGGGGGGG ROFL

[ShawniganLake]

You can leave... bye. Front door is open don’t hit yourself on the way out, ****.

 

Southern Vancouver Island is getting hit hard right now. Anyone in that zone awake with an update?

It’s snowing steady. Not crazy hard. Dry air might be eating some of that moisture on radar.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

4 inches and snowing heavy.

 

Powers out

[kokaneekidz]

I just pondered at the Medium Pacific Satellite Loop and there is major rotation ... We may have the beginnings of a Tofino Low about to surface by mid morning.... TBD

[Oliver]

Welp, I guess I have another account to suspend.

Who?

[IceKing]

Welp, I guess I have another account to suspend.

This snow event is clearly bringing out the best of us

[MikeInEverett]

Definitely precip moving north.. Weird.

 

[IceKing]

Definitely precip moving north.. Weird.

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.ATX.N0Q.20200113.1100.024ani.gif

That's what I was saying. Very odd indeed. Interested in how this plays out

[ShawniganLake]

Some models feed a bunch of moisture into Whatcom county and SW BC later tomorrow night

 

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Kitsap getting slammed right now reports of 8-9 inches

[kokaneekidz]

Oliver was Ben who was Sounder.

 

Such a shame too because I enjoyed some of his posts when he wasn’t acting like a ****.

Could we sponsor obedience class for him>? Perhaps a schilling per active and in good standing member>>???

[kokaneekidz]

Port Renfrew will be the golden ticket winner if that GEM is onto something.

[MikeInEverett]

A few more pictures.. The sky and the trees look amazing!!

 

 

 

[χιόνι (chióni)]

All of Bainbridge Island out of power. Snowing here 4-5 inches

[kokaneekidz]

This is looking more and more like the 1996 SNOW that never gave up until the Pineapple Express killed it about 8 days after it began and caused all the carports and Edmonds and Everett covered moorage areas at the marina to collapse. I had my first car then a 1993 Civic CX hatch and would pull friends around on a innertube using a rope that was looped thru the towhook underneath the trunk of my ride. Adolescent memories that will stay with me always (Sigh)

[AJ1013]

Saw I missed out on a high school/college discussion. I’m at the University of Arizona if that wasn’t obvious already. Was looking at UC’s and a few others I got into (Wake Forest/UNC among others) but decided to follow the $$$.

[Blizzard777]

Wow...just wow!   No soup for us down in the South Sound! 

[AJ1013]

Upper 30’s in Tucson this morning. Typical winter conditions.

[Weather1011]

Snowing since 8 PM last night

23F

[Blizzard777]

Just for the record 

[MossMan]

Currently 26.5 degrees.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just for the record 

GFS wins!

 

--------------------------------------------------------

6z GEFS PDX mean temp colder down to -11c. Also, Tuesday and Wednesday the Op was a warm outlier by 2c. We usually don't see that this close to a possible event. This means we may see the next few runs trend slightly colder. It also means what moisture that falls may stand a better chance of being all snow. It's something to keep in mind.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just like I tried to tell Jim — No snow for the south sound and the convergence zone was and did dissolve. Jim sorry man but you really need to take off the rose colored glasses to see things a bit more clearly sometimes... Sorry south sounders but we totally got missed, this time. maybe the next round. Bummer!

[luvssnow_spokane]

We are still exposed to an ever increasing southern wind here. The good news is that might induce some wrap around moisture coming off the ocean to give us south Sounders a small chance of spotty melting snow. worth watching over the next few hours. The Arctic front totally failed and never even got close to our location. Only cold offshore wind more or less came in like a kitten/cold air trickle. Basically an epic bust up to this point from about Kent to south to Tacoma. Models got this one 100% right up to this point.

[Weather1011]

Just like I tried to tell Jim — No snow for the south sound and the convergence zone was and did dissolve. Jim sorry man but you really need to take off the rose colored glasses to see things a bit more clearly sometimes... Sorry south sounders but we totally got missed, this time. maybe the next round. Bummer!

Agreed

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Bellingham definitely did not get 3” of snow tonight... at least anywhere within city limits. I have a friend in Sudden Valley that got 3” and my parents place got just over 2” on the NW side of Lake Whatcom (near Geneva).

 

Here in Ferndale it’s 19*f with NE wind howling. We got a coating of snow that would probably have measured under 1/2”...

 

I was watching the radar yesterday afternoon/evening and it made for frustration. You could see the cell that delivered 2" to south Bellingham working its way across the Strait on the radar. Was holding its shape. Was elongated, almost bordering on a snow band. Then literally a mile or two away from my place it stalls and slowly disintegrates.

 

19˚F here, too. NWS not forecasting it to warm up at all during the daylight hours. Should be a few degrees cooler by this afternoon.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

All of Bainbridge Island out of power. Snowing here 4-5 inches

 

North Bainbridge looks like it got it good. Looks like Winslow got only a dusting based on the ferry cams. So I would have juuust missed out on the snow even if I hadn't moved to Bellingham last year.

[FroYoBro]

Temperature and dew point went up a degree since I went to bed. 38/35. I hope I can salvage some flakes out of the air tonight.

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

Just started snowing lightly in Pacific. 34 degrees. Still have a very slight SW wind it would appear.

[Cloud]

Just like I tried to tell Jim — No snow for the south sound and the convergence zone was and did dissolve. Jim sorry man but you really need to take off the rose colored glasses to see things a bit more clearly sometimes... Sorry south sounders but we totally got missed, this time. maybe the next round. Bummer!

Woke up to maybe about an 1” here. Checked the radar loop for past few hours pretty much showed my area being the stopped area before being dissolved for the CZ. Some areas are fortunate than others but the models did a good job in determining how far south the CZ went.