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Here's the numerical spread on Niño predictions for each model. There are some that are way stupidly too high. This would explain the forecast avg that I believe is too high. A lot of the models start at too high of a number to begin with. 

I removed some of the models so the averages could be better seen. (2nd Image)

 

Screenshot_20230928_080336_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

Screenshot_20230928_080227_Samsung Internet.jpg

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If ENSO is poised for a surge, it is doing a poor job of displaying it.

If anything, looks to stabilize or decline. 

Not really a fan of the cooling in the GOA/NW coast of US. Would like to see that sudden reverse to warming. Would give hope for these ridging episodes to finally go away for a good while. 

nino-1.2.10.01.23.png

nino34-1.10.01.23.png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_10.01.23.png

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9 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Region 3.4 has been stable overall for about a month with the warmth spreading west, and waning in the east.  1.2 and 3 are on the decline with 4 still rising.  The trends definitely don't support much more warming.  But this is far outside my sphere of knowledge.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Would love it if it's already peaked.

The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/3/2023 at 6:27 PM, jaster220 said:

The experts say peaking mid-winter as per usual. But I wouldn't mind if we were peeking at a peaking now either

I still hold that we will or are already seeing peak in 3.4. 1 is still higher, but at this time, the shift west has begun. Any additional gains in 3.4 are from this as it appears the subsurface is nearly depleted.

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On 11/3/2023 at 5:15 PM, Hoosier said:

fwiw, the prelim ONI reading for Aug/Sep/Oct came in at 1.5

I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I don't really track ENSO. Was that higher or lower than expected/forecasted?

That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO.  So it depends on what you're looking at. 

But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time.  As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino.  I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west.  Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall.  Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good.

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There is a decent Kelvin Wave and some westerly wind anomaly over the western Nino regions now. This may produce one last bump but I think that is it. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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43 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

What is the RONI anyway? Not sure I've seen that one defined. 
 

Relative ONI.  Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI.  The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05.  You can get the RONI values here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

More about the RONI:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That's a little tough to answer because there are various forecasting tools when it comes to ENSO.  So it depends on what you're looking at. 

But based on ONI, this Nino is heading into strong territory at this time.  As others have pointed out, there are other measures like the MEI or RONI that show it as a more subdued Nino.  I'm not sure that we will reach the unofficial "super" Nino status that is generally regarded as ONI reaching 2.0 (I'd lean against an ONI of 2.0 at this point), but even if we do, the peak will be lower than years like 1997-98 and 2015-16 and the forcing farther west.  Obviously it would be wise to not expect the world from this Nino in our region, but that doesn't mean it has to be terrible wall-to-wall.  Those big Ninos in 1998 and 2016 did produce some good storms in our region, namely 3/9/98 and 2/24/16, so hopefully we can pull off a big storm even if the winter overall isn't good.

I enjoyed both of those!  Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I enjoyed both of those!  Thanks for the breakdown and reminder that even in the stronger category, we CAN get something exciting. Throw in 09-10 as a wildcard analog strong Nino and it's certainly worth staying tuned. 

Not saying this Nino is like 2015-16, but I'm approaching this winter with the same type of mindset as I did then.  Assume that it won't be a great winter for prolonged snowcover retention (and be pleasantly surprised if it is), but enjoy any good stretches while they occur and hope for a good storm or two.  2015-16 had 3 significant storms imby... 11/22/15, the epic sleet fest of 12/28/15, and 2/24/16.  Since my expectations were low in 2015-16, I came out of that feeling fairly satisfied even though the final total on paper was pretty unremarkable.

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Relative ONI.  Basically, you subtract the average SST from the ONI.  The ASO RONI value came in at 1.05.  You can get the RONI values here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

More about the RONI:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed

Good stuff. Yes, this makes perfect sense that CC is creating an artificial +ENSO signal and something like what they do in that paper is necessary to deal with it. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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From APX's winter forecast (ofc they're just running with the "strong Nino incoming" mantra). I found this interesting:

image.png.dfc70cd32c9359fcf179aa4b7990041e.png

Figuring those AN temps just HAD to be bad news for your winter outcome, right??

Wrong. Gaylord with "only" 162 inches on the season:

annual_snow22-23.png

The gradient between Grayling and Gaylord is a mere 6 FEET of snow on the season. Krazy


 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Another interesting map from that forecast. This shows how the stronger Ninos really increase the odds for AN snowfall in the S Plains region. There is also a small signal across the northern portion of mid-Michigan area that is slightly AN odds for good snowfall.

image.png.f980a0d41222330682bab883d01acecc.png

 

I will give them kudos for a nice list of "CYA" caveats:

image.png.4f5342cad92186c711b08efbd271b494.png

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 48.2"    Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)        Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From Terry Swails blog last night.

Another factor that I feel will play a significant factor in our "winter overall" is the cooling of the El Niño waters near the coast of South America. While sea surface temperatures have dropped off there, they have warmed in the enso region 3.4 to the west. That implies to me that we are headed for a Modoki El Niño, which is not the typical run-of-the-mild blow torch version. It does give me hope that this winter will have its moments of cold and snow. So far, that is a positive trend that we seem to be moving towards. Time will tell. That's all for now. Roll weather...TS

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A good El Nino discussion from Terry Swails blog yesterday.

The big news floating around the weather world Friday was that the El Niño, that's been bordering on "a super Niño", is weakening. The trades are also pushing it west, where it will likely be classified as a Modoki El Niño. In other words, its warmest waters are expected to be found in the central Pacific in a region called 3.4. Back in September, it was east based with the warmest waters off the South American coast.

Pressure gauges indicate El Niño is weak 
 

A tool that some forecasters use to determine the status of El Niño and La Niña events is the Southern Oscillation Index, or what is commonly referred to as the SOI. The index measures pressure differences in the southwest Pacific, and when the gauge turns substantially positive, a La Niña event is likely happening or on the way. The reverse is also true, and when figures are markedly negative, an El Niño event is likely in progress.

Recent values show a streak of positive figures that have impacted the SOI count. In fact, at times, during the last 30 and 90 days, the figure has weakened below what is typically considered an El Niño event.
El Niños are known to exist when figures are at -8 on the index scale, and La Niñas exist when the average figure is +8 or greater. There is a huge disconnect between the SOI and a similar index called the ONI. The latest SOI values were -7.56 for the last 90 days and -2.78 for the last 30 days. The latest daily contribution Friday was positive (+4.05) which, at a glance, argues against the fact there is even so much as a weak El Niño.
 
0d40d5_6e29fa2d48f14cc9ac1233604b84b2f5~
 
 
 
0d40d5_70c298815f0a4c34a1d3a4f077a4ba83~
 

At the rate the SOI is progressing, this entire El Niño episode has the potential to be over and done by April 1st. This is a significant rise, and it's bound to have implications on the winter. The big unknown is how fast this El Niño ends and how far into the central Pacific the warmth migrates. The rapid decline we are seeing is somewhat unprecedented, and I think it has the potential to be a big winter wildcard going forward.

 
 
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What will be so fascinating is how quickly the ENSO crashes this Spring into eventually what looks like a La Nina in the late Summer period?  Pretty wild to see such a massive Warm Pool literally vanish within a matter of 6 months.  Maybe sooner?

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On 2/6/2024 at 8:45 PM, Iceresistance said:

La Nina is returning later this year...

What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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On 2/10/2024 at 3:39 PM, Black Hole said:

What's your impression of la nina overall for us? To me it seems to slightly increase the odds of a good arctic blast but hit and miss with snow. 

I agree with this. More cold air masses movement due to warmth at mid and high latitudes, but trade offs are global moisture transport decreasing because colder air, even at the equator, holds less moisture.

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