GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 What the models are showing is a little more telling than a 7-day forecast.Long range correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Rarely gets over 100°F, but it always feels like 100°F+ in the afternoon. I really think daily forecasts should at least list the heat index (perhaps even replace temperature with heat index and wind chill, since that’s what it actually feels like to the general population). I dislike all heat, but I can tolerate desert much better. I’ve been to Scottsdale AZ during the summer in 110°F temperatures. At least your sweat actually evaporates/cools you down when it’s dry. With swamp heat, the sweat just drips down your face and back like hot water leaving a sponge, soaking you in warm juices. It’s disgusting and you can feel your interior body temperature rising if you’re out in it for too long. Give me 110/45 over 90/75 anytime.This is all true. Record high for Miami is 100 but it can get hotter in other areas. I want to say 110 is the all time record high. The humidity sucks down there. Most of my relatives have moved out of Florida to other states . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 The smoke from the eagle creek fire drifted into Portland keeping temperatures down. Most channels had 106-109.You are thinking of the early September 2017 heat event. That’s when thick smoke from the Eagle Creek fire held things the 90s in town. The August 2017 heat event, about a month earlier, was the one that had some pretty crazy numbers leading up to it, which some TV Mets were quick to jump on. In the end, the models watered things down, but it still got hot (PDX topped out at 105 on 8/3/17). There was some smoke around in the high and mid levels from fires in the region, but as things stood 105-106 was about the hottest that airmass could probably squeeze out anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Long range correct.I certainly hope it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 You are thinking of the early September 2017 heat event. That’s when thick smoke from the Eagle Creek fire held things the 90s in town. The August 2017 heat event, about a month earlier, was the one that had some pretty crazy numbers leading up to it, which some TV Mets were quick to jump on. In the end, the models watered things down, but it still got hot (PDX topped out at 105 on 8/3/17). There was some smoke around in the high and mid levels from fires in the region, but as things stood 105-106 was about the hottest that airmass could probably squeeze out anyway.Right and there was a lot of smoke around. I could hardly breathe. If it still got to 105 then without smoke you can add 2, 3 degrees easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 06z ensembles show a big spike downward this weekend, then more cooler than average weather in the long range. 3EB2FC9C-A858-418E-880A-D984DCD805CF.png A dual June-uary year? Easily the worst Jan on record for me. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Right and there was a lot of smoke around. I could hardly breathe. If it still got to 105 then without smoke you can add 2, 3 degrees easily.You are thinking of the early September period that same year. That’s when there was stifling smoke in the low levels that was so thick it was blocking out the sun and making it heard to breathe. I’d never seen anything like it. In early August, there was smoke around but it was in the higher levels of the atmosphere, where it doesn’t make as direct an impact on surface temps. I think you keep mixing up these two events in this discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 A dual June-uary year?Maybe. But I doubt we get that lucky. Looks like some coolish temps the first 7-10 days of the month, at very least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 You are thinking of the early September period that same year. That’s when there was stifling smoke in the low levels that was so thick it was blocking out the sun and making it heard to breathe. I’d never seen anything like it. In early August, there was smoke around but it was in the higher levels of the atmosphere, where it doesn’t make as direct an impact on surface temps. I think you keep mixing up these two events in this discussion. https://www.wweek.com/news/2017/08/04/smoke-from-37-wildfires-continue-to-cloak-portland-but-it-should-start-clearing-up-this-afternoon/ No, there was lots of smoke around in August. Lots of wildfires were burning even up in Canada that traveled down here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 https://www.wweek.com/news/2017/08/04/smoke-from-37-wildfires-continue-to-cloak-portland-but-it-should-start-clearing-up-this-afternoon/No, there was lots of smoke around in August. Lots of wildfires were burning even up in Canada that traveled down hereYes, I mentioned the same thing. Lots of smoke in the high and mid levels from fires throughout the region. But there wasn’t anywhere near the thick low level smoke we saw in September from the Gorge fires, which can actually have a major impact on surface temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Yes, I mentioned the same thing. Lots of smoke in the high and mid levels from fires throughout the region. But there wasn’t anywhere the thick low level smoke we saw in September from the Gorge fires, which can actually have a major impact on surface temps. the city got cloaked in smoke instead, which actually helped to keep temperatures from reaching those ultra-high temps, according to the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service even admitted it kept temperatures down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 PDX is running -7 compared to yesterday at this time. It’s still quite pleasant in the mid-60s here too. Pretty impressive that PDX managed to hit 91 yesterday. That was getting the absolute most that this airmass is capable of. I think the dying front to our north might have kicked up some offshore flow just above the surface. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 the city got cloaked in smoke instead, which actually helped to keep temperatures from reaching those ultra-high temps, according to the National Weather Service.The National Weather Service even admitted it kept temperatures down.You are thinking of the early September event again now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 How about a December 08 snowstorm instead? Heh We would prefer a Jan 1969 type event down here. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 You are thinking of the early September event again now.No, that was from the article. The NWS was talking about the August heatwave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 No, that was from the article. The NWS was talking about the August heatwaveI’m starting to feel like I’m spending too much time on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 We would prefer a Jan 1969 type event down here.Why what happened? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 I saw 112 and 113 I think on channel 8. Matt Zaffano was doing the forecast. It might not have reached those temperatures but 106-109 was likely without the smoke.I don't remember any of the stations forecasting above 110 but I saw lots of upper 100s. Hot either way. You won't be able to feel the difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 La Nina is looking better and better, now looking like it is basically a lock. Potentially a healthy one at that. Subsurface cold pool has exploded the past few weeks with the easterly wind burst. And 3.4 is already almost into Nina territory. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Why what happened?There was so much smoke in the air PDX didn’t even hit 15. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 As for storms tomorrow, looks like our best chance is for some elevated stuff in the morning. Hi-res models showing enough mid level instability with the initial forcing for some spotty thundershowers to develop and race north. Then it shifts towards being a heavy rain event in the evening with the storms on or east of the crest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 A dual June-uary year? Easily the worst Jan on record for me.Mid-January, although a pretty big disappointment considering what was originally modeled, yielded a wonderful storm on Mt Hood. Last two weeks of the month were about as awful as winter weather gets for skiers, though. Just an endless parade of warm fronts, drizzle, and 7000’ snow levels. From Jan 18 to the end of the month, PDX didn’t get below 41 and Gov’t Camp didn’t get below 28. I had three ski practices/races in a row cancelled because of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Going chasing in Central/Eastern WA tomorrow. Where would you guys target? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 As for storms tomorrow, looks like our best chance is for some elevated stuff in the morning. Hi-res models showing enough mid level instability with the initial forcing for some spotty thundershowers to develop and race north. Then it shifts towards being a heavy rain event in the evening with the storms on or east of the crest. Should be some interesting skies to enjoy as this progresses 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Current plan is to start in Chelan area for the morning/early aft round of initial storms and then work towards tri-cities area for evening storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Going chasing in Central/Eastern WA tomorrow. Where would you guys target? The knowledge ones should give you some good target zones to be in but I know from personal experience if I go there the storms will be here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Current plan is to start in Chelan area for the morning/early aft round of initial storms and then work towards tri-cities area for evening storms. Cloud formations should be fantastic none the less so just enjoy the road trip and have munchies with good music! Edit: make sure you take pics and post here! That might initiate me out of my chair running to the east side 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Going chasing in Central/Eastern WA tomorrow. Where would you guys target? I was considering the same thing. Leaving late tonight and driving around into the early morning hours. If I go it will probably be East of Mount Hood into north/central Oregon. Tygh Valley/Maupin/Shaniko etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 I’m starting to feel like I’m spending too much time on this one.I remember the post mortem on the august heat event. IIRC the analysis showed 105-106 likely being the top end of that airmass even without the smoke 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 I remember the post mortem on the august heat event. IIRC the analysis showed 105-106 likely being the top end of that airmass even without the smokeIt was extremely controversial. I think the slightly obscured sky gave people a case of the what-ifs but that was probably the best that pathetic air mass had to offer. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2020 Report Share Posted May 29, 2020 I remember the post mortem on the august heat event. IIRC the analysis showed 105-106 likely being the top end of that airmass even without the smoke It was extremely controversial. I think the slightly obscured sky gave people a case of the what-ifs but that was probably the best that pathetic air mass had to offer.Now you guys step in and help me out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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