September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

45 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wild that you are only 2.5 hrs away from me and we have a 6-8 week difference in first freeze

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

Possibly, but not the last few seasons

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Possibly, but not the last few seasons

The last season without an official Freeze at Victoria (Gonzales) was 2002-2003. 
 

Moderate El Niño, similar to how this year is shaping up.   

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty strong inversion last night.  Your higher elevation probably helped keep you warmer.  There is a station at 1200ft that’s not too far from me and they had a low in the mid 50s last night. 

It was warmer up here than in the valley last night.   

We made to December 4th without a freeze in 2016.   It snowed before it froze... both happened the same day.   We had roses still in bloom that morning.

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet if you go down near the water in Port Angeles there are places that have gone an entire season without a single freeze. 

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It does appear as if we are deviating already from years like 1952, 1991, and 2002.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

1933-34 would have been a real drag. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1933-34 would have been a real drag. 

December was pretty epic, at least. Insane flooding and insane cold just to the north.

Edited September 21, 2023 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

December was pretty epic, at least. Insane flooding and insane cold just to the north.

Have a feeling we will have some fun weather to track this winter. Just might not be in our area.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks wetter with the main front Monday compared to its 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF looks wetter with the main front Monday compared to its 00Z run.

Thanks for the update.

[YahRaEl]

Amazes me that it dropped to 35° this am at OLM wonder if they had any spotty frost. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Through Tuesday...

[the_convergence_zone]

Seattle Public Utilities is asking us to conserve water due to a "forecast of continued dry conditions". 

Umm...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Amazes me that it dropped to 35° this am at OLM wonder if they had any spotty frost. 

 

 

At 35 I am sure it was way more than spotty

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm going out on a limb and say we could see a possible windstorm this year. Maybe the storm that's coming in on Sunday and Monday. Just by what I see in the last couple of model runs. It's just a feeling. I could be wrong but I think it's a possibility 🌬

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Through Tuesday...

A little over an inch here. Not a huge event, but should keep the grass green.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The old station in downtown Port Angeles had a few close calls but never anything official. 30 in 2002-03 and 30 in 1999-00 was it.

Downtown Portland only bottomed out at 33 in the 1933-34 season, making it one of the only other examples that I can think of in the region.

Looks like Victoria Gonzales pulled it off in 1925-26, 1939-40, and 1999-00.   Port Angeles is likely a little more protected than Victoria Gonzales though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Small step back on the EURO, but still a solid soaking. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A little over an inch here. Not a huge event, but should keep the grass green.

That's a pretty low bar.   Your grass would stay green now until winter dormancy regardless of how much rain falls.   

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like Victoria Gonzales pulled it off in 1925-26, 1939-40, and 1999-00.   Port Angeles is likely a little more protected than Victoria Gonzales though. 

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

[TT-SEA]

Not as crazy as the 00Z run... but 12Z EPS is still quite wet over next 2 weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

I like not to think about it. 

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

Tim

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim

If that's the case I hope he stays between 40-42F all winter

i kid, i kid, i'm not a total psycho

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New house on the market about a mile away for anyone interested in living at 1600'. The seller commented on the local FB page the main reason they are moving is they could not handle the snow last winter. They only lived here a year. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19724-De-Santis-Ln-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/2063282179_zpid/

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Someone's gonna stay 40F+ all winter before 2070.

I thought the world would end by 2030 due to climate change. 

[TacomaWx]

64 here after a low of 44 this morning. Very nice day. 

[T-Town]

24 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

I thought the world would end by 2030 due to climate change. 

The world will be here but we’ll all be dead. So cheer up!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

Mid-70's in December and January are probably totally doable in our current climate regime. That's only +30 on long term norms for daily midwinter maxima. We already do that about every other year in the summer with temperatures in the 110's in the Willamette Valley.

[MossMan]

Lovely day in Skykomish earlier. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

New house on the market about a mile away for anyone interested in living at 1600'. The seller commented on the local FB page the main reason they are moving is they could not handle the snow last winter. They only lived here a year. 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19724-De-Santis-Ln-SE-Silverton-OR-97381/2063282179_zpid/

 

 

If you're going to overprice a house by $150K, at least fix the $5 broken tile next to the pool. 

[T-Town]

Some fall color showing up in the hood. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not a good swimming day for Lake Tahoe

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Some other big Nino years there!

Also makes you realize that we're likely living on borrowed time when it comes to some of our winter warm extremes and finally blowing past all of the benchmarks of 100 years ago, as other regions have done recently. And as other seasons have done here. It's only a matter of time before we see some historically unprecedented stuff in DJF.

Do you remember the 12/1/21 eastern WA foehn “heat wave”?

Winthrop broke its all time December record by 16 degrees with that one, IIRC. From 54 to 70. In fact I think that is the warmest temp on record between late October and mid March there.

[Anti Marine Layer]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely day in Skykomish earlier. 

Earlier? What about now?

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Do you remember the 12/1/21 eastern WA foehn “heat wave”?

Winthrop broke its all time December record by 16 degrees with that one, IIRC. From 54 to 70. In fact I think that is the warmest temp on record between late October and mid March there.

yep. crazy. 10-31 to 3-13 were the widest dates I got that didn't have any 70s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Do you remember the 12/1/21 eastern WA foehn “heat wave”?

Winthrop broke its all time December record by 16 degrees with that one, IIRC. From 54 to 70. In fact I think that is the warmest temp on record between late October and mid March there.

We hit 65 that day. Way to much torching that winter despite some good moments.

[TacomaWx]

Interesting satellite imagery this afternoon. What little smoke remains across the region will be extinguished soon as well!