September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice night of more rainfall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.96” total with this system. Not bad at all. 

[T-Town]

Some pretty good rain here in Bend overnight. Should be good for the fires in the area. Packing up for the drive home today. Hopefully headed in the opposite direction of most of the holiday traffic. 

[MossMan]

A little fall fog this am. 
And tent caterpillars…Must mean an epic November is brewing! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is it just me or does that caterpillar tent look like a mummified foot?

[LowerGarfield]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nice night of more rainfall.

How much did you get?

[ChristheElohim]

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2023-08-31-september-temperature-outlook-united-states

[ChristheElohim]

NOAA

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sunshine is bright and the sky is blue. That modelled smoke is not even aloft.

[TT-SEA]

Summer at SEA...

June  +0.0

July  +1.4

August +2.5

Did not end up being a front-loaded summer as expected.   It was the opposite. 

[TT-SEA]

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer at SEA...

June  +0.0

July  +1.4

August +2.5

Did not end up being a front-loaded summer as expected.   It was the opposite. 

Boy, you are opening that can with the folks to our south.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Boy, you are opening that can with the folks to our south.  

Yeah... didn't look at the stats down there and I only referencing the Seattle area in that post.

[TT-SEA]

Of the 92 days of meteorological summer at SEA... 61 of those days were at or above normal.  And that is using the new warmer averages which were projected to make colder than average days more easy to achieve.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... didn't look at the stats down there and I only referencing the Seattle area in that post.

Oh, I know you just referenced SEA, but it’s gonna happen

Which is why I’m glad the last system that went through focused to the south. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA finished this summer with an average temp of 66.8 which makes it tied for the 5th warmest summer ever.

2015 - 69.2

2013 - 67.4

2018 - 67.4

2021 - 67.2

2014 / 2017 / 2023 - 66.8

Given that all the years on this list are within the last decade... it might be noted that summers seem to be getting warmer.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA finished this summer with an average temp of 66.8 which makes it tied for the 5th warmest summer ever.

2015 - 69.2

2013 - 67.4

2018 - 67.4

2021 - 67.2

2014 / 2017 / 2023 - 66.8

Given that all the years on this list are within the last decade... it might be noted that summers seem to be getting warmer.

 

2022 isn't on this list???

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

2022 isn't on this list???

2022 comes in right behind 2023 tied for 6th place at 66.7 with 1967 and 2019.  

This summer was actually a little bit warmer than last year.

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

2022 isn't on this list???

From a meteorological summer perspective Jun 1 - Aug 31 which was what TT-SEA was referencing last June was fairly chilly (-0.9)so it makes sense not to make that list. It wasn’t until Aug, Sept, Oct that got fairly warm departures. 

[Front Ranger]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer at SEA...

June  +0.0

July  +1.4

August +2.5

Did not end up being a front-loaded summer as expected.   It was the opposite. 

Average temp at OLM this summer was 64.3. That was basically the same as last summer, and cooler than 2021 or 2014, very close to both 2018 and 2017, easily warmer than 2020, 2019, and 2016...but more than 2 degrees cooler than 2015 and 1958, which are virtually tied as the warmest summers on record.

[SnowWillarrive]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA finished this summer with an average temp of 66.8 which makes it tied for the 5th warmest summer ever.

2015 - 69.2

2013 - 67.4

2018 - 67.4

2021 - 67.2

2014 / 2017 / 2023 - 66.8

Given that all the years on this list are within the last decade... it might be noted that summers seem to be getting warmer.

 

We’ve had some good snowfalls at least. 

[Front Ranger]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA finished this summer with an average temp of 66.8 which makes it tied for the 5th warmest summer ever.

2015 - 69.2

2013 - 67.4

2018 - 67.4

2021 - 67.2

2014 / 2017 / 2023 - 66.8

Given that all the years on this list are within the last decade... it might be noted that summers seem to be getting warmer.

 

For OLM, 1958 and 1967 are both top 5 summers still. 1958 tied with 2015 for warmest on record, and 1967 comes in third behind 2021.

So while summers have obviously been unprecedentedly warm, a little bit different picture than SEA.

[RentonHill]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2022 comes in right behind 2023 tied for 6th place at 66.7 with 1967 and 2019.  

This summer was actually a little bit warmer than last year.

I feel like this summer hardly even tried and we still scored top 5. If you include May its 3rd hottest. Compare to Eugene for kicks  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Fine first day of meteorological fall out there. Partly cloudy and mild, temp is hanging at 68 after a low of 59. The air smells clean and the landscape looks refreshed from yesterdays rainfall.

Hoping this month offers a reprieve from the constant torching since late April, but I’m sure that will be a tall order.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping this month offers a reprieve from the constant torching since late April, but I’m sure that will be a tall order.

It’s always bad to bet against torching these days, but the long-term models are actually pretty favourable for us this month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Fine first day of meteorological fall out there. Partly cloudy and mild, temp is hanging at 68 after a low of 59. The air smells clean and the landscape looks refreshed from yesterdays rainfall.

Hoping this month offers a reprieve from the constant torching since late April, but I’m sure that will be a tall order.

IDK if you missed my post the other day where I mentioned from January 20-April 20th 82.4% of our days were below average. As JT once said. What goes around comes back around... And we know in this climate it will come back around 2X. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to complain about the 12z GFS. 

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous start to September and JBoblin’s prison sentence.

[Phil]

This makes me want to kick chipmunks.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer at SEA...

June  +0.0

July  +1.4

August +2.5

Did not end up being a front-loaded summer as expected.   It was the opposite. 

It was front loaded up in N/W-Canada, though.

Anomaly centers were slightly displaced from the analog consensus but generally speaking it was an old school niño pattern with a few added quirks.

[Cold Snap]

Low of 55 this morning for the first day of meteorological fall. Looks like tomorrow could get into the upper 80s IMBY.

[Phil]

Started seeing 80°F+ highs in February and will likely continue well into October as usual.

My temp default has been “warm” for so long that I’ve forgotten what cool air feels like. Only taste I got was in Seattle in late July.

Pray for Yellowstone.  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Low of 55 this morning for the first day of meteorological fall. Looks like tomorrow could get into the upper 80s IMBY.

55°F sounds wonderful. Won’t be long before the first frosts arrive up there.

[Phil]

At least I’m done with school at the end of the year. Hopefully I’ll find good work and we can find a new place to live before the summer of 2024 rears its ugly head.

[Phil]

Relative to global mean SSTA, the off-equator NPAC is quite cool. Don’t think there will be much +TNH/-EPO this winter..blocking more likely to come from NAO and/or Siberia.

Which heavily tilts the odds towards a stormy winter in the west, especially the southwest given ENSO. But it’ll likely be of the warm, Pineapple Express variety. Very little cold in western Canada to draw from in such a pattern, unless the -NAO is on steroids. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK if you missed my post the other day where I mentioned from January 20-April 20th 82.4% of our days were below average. As JT once said. What goes around comes back around... And we know in this climate it will come back around 2X. 

Yeah. It looks pretty nice the next 7-10 days, but it’s pretty much just average to slightly below average weather. Wouldn’t take much for a lot of those forecast highs in the 70s next week to become 80s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Relative to global mean SSTA, the off-equator NPAC is quite cool. Don’t think there will be much +TNH/-EPO this winter..blocking more likely to come from NAO and/or Siberia.

Which heavily tilts the odds towards a stormy winter in the west, especially the southwest given ENSO. But it’ll likely be of the warm, Pineapple Express variety. Very little cold in western Canada to draw from.

We're due for a dud with warm rain. Shitt happens.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah. It looks pretty nice the next 7-10 days, but it’s pretty much just average to slightly below average weather. Wouldn’t take much for a lot of those forecast highs in the 70s next week to become 80s.

I'm calling for an average to slightly above average month temp wise. Precip near to slightly below normal.

[Skagit Weather]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to complain about the 12z GFS. 

Drier than I would like, but not too bad.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're due for a dud with warm rain. Shitt happens.

Can’t call for a “dud” winter at this range since even strong ENSO winters have subseasonal variability. Always possible for a cold week imbedded in a sea of torch.

But yes, there should be no shortage of steamy atmospheric rivers. And likely a top-tier blowtorch from the Midwest/N-Plains to the PNW/BC. Maybe into the Northeast US as well, especially in December.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm calling for an average to slightly above average month temp wise. Precip near to slightly below normal.

Seemz reasonable.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS going with a western ridge and eastern trough scenario starting in a week like its 00Z run showed.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Very nice fall morning, got down to 52, and very foggy out in the county.  Sky is clear, but the horizon looks a little smoky.

 

Sounds like they are getting the Lake Whatcom Fire under control.  It got up to 45 acres, and the the crews are making a lot of headway despite very steep, rugged terrain.  They have a helicopter up there now mainly just dumping on hot spots.  They still have the level 2 evacuation in place for the homes close by, but hopefully they can take that down in the next couple of days.  They are warning people to stay clear of the water just below the fire, they still have boulders and trees falling down the hill and into the water.

[RentonHill]

I know its common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

I know its common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS really likes the idea of warmth building out west.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS really likes the idea of warmth building out west.

Going to be snowing in 11 short weeks! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Going to be snowing in 11 short weeks! 

Yes... and Phil will remind us soon that the ridging coming up with only last for a few minutes like all ridging around here.   

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I know it’s common knowledge but feels crazy that we havent had a below average summer since 2012. 

The PNW region’s dust bowl decade.

Good news is the step change in 2013 was driven by a change in circulation (internal variability) related to the IPWP structure. As was the 1930s dust bowl. So, at some point this interdecadal state will change/revert back, maybe sooner than we think. Or maybe later. Who knows.

We’ve had at least 2 false alarms in recent years, so keep your expectations in check, but I think this backwards-evolving El Niño (inception via costero to EPAC-canonical mode) could mark the end of the post-2013 base state. It’s the best chance we’ve had so far.

Time will tell, but the LP emergence is external to the WPAC for the first time in over a decade. And upon termination of the niño there will likely be a residual EPAC/WHEM rising cell but this time without the dateline convection. Which would not only be pre-2013, but pre-1998 in W2 structure.

[Phil]

The bugs are screaming outside, sounds like something out of the rapture. As if nature knows the heat is coming back.